With assist from Nahal Toosi, Lara Seligman and Daniel Lippman
Subscribe right here | E-mail Alex | E-mail Matt
Ukraine is making an attempt to get its message throughout to Republicans anticipating to seize the Home (and perhaps Senate): Kyiv goes to wish sustained financial help in addition to weapons.
Ukrainian leaders imagine {that a} absolutely or partially GOP-led Congress gained’t skimp on giving Kyiv army assist — regardless of what just a few on the fitting are saying. In reality, Ukraine expects “much more strong” weapons packages if Republicans are in cost, DANIEL VAJDICH, a lobbyist in contact with Ukrainian officers, advised your NatSec Day by day host and NAHAL TOOSI.
Right here’s the problem: The Ukrainians are extra involved about Republicans paring again future financial assist to their nation. America has already given billions of {dollars} in such help to Kyiv — however extra funds shall be essential within the coming months and years, particularly if Russia continues to wreck Ukraine’s energy crops and different vital infrastructure.
“There’s a recognition in Kyiv that they’re going to must work with Republicans to assist them perceive that assist for Ukraine can’t simply be about weapons,” Vajdich stated. Meaning cash to erase Ukraine’s finances deficit, and to underwrite the vitality sector and different civil companies akin to colleges. The primary message, then, is extra money, fewer issues.
It’s a message lawmakers are listening to straight from Ukrainian officers and thru their representatives in Washington.
A senior administration official stated the Biden staff wasn’t nervous about assist for Ukraine dropping ought to Republicans take both or each chambers of Congress. For instance: MITCH MCCONNELL, the Senate minority chief, has constantly stated the GOP would authorize extra weapons for Ukraine.
Rep. DON BACON (R-Neb.), a Home Armed Companies Committee member, stated “Ukraine and the administration might want to clarify and justify what’s being requested, however I imagine the far majority of our convention will do what is critical to make sure Ukraine prevails.”
However Democrats stay skeptical.
Ukrainian officers ought to “positively fear extra” with Republicans main within the Home, stated Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO (D-Ariz.), who additionally serves on HASC. Home Minority Chief KEVIN MCCARTHY “has no management over his caucus and given the choice of saving Ukraine or himself, he’ll select himself.”
Learn Alex and Nahal’s full story.
RUSSIA HITS UKRAINE HARD: Russian missile strikes took out vital infrastructure in a number of Ukrainian cities and left 80 p.c of Kyiv with out water provides Monday morning, The Washington Submit’s FRANCESCA EBEL stories.
Although Ukraine’s air power stated it shot down 44 of no less than 50 missiles launched, “the objectives of the strikes had been achieved. All designated targets had been hit,” Russia’s Protection Ministry stated in an announcement. The missiles had been “long-range high-precision air and sea-based weapons,” the ministry stated.
The launches had been an obvious retaliatory assault for what Moscow alleged was a Ukrainian drone assault on its Black Sea Fleet off the coast of the annexed Crimean Peninsula on Saturday.
SAUDIS DEFEND OIL CUT: Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates at a convention on Monday defended the OPEC+ oil manufacturing reduce as AMOS HOCHSTEIN, a senior adviser on vitality safety on the State Division, warned of “financial uncertainty” forward for the world, the Related Press’ JON GAMBRELL stories.
“We don’t owe it to anyone however us,” Prince ABDULAZIZ BIN SALMAN stated on the Abu Dhabi Worldwide Petroleum Exhibition and Convention. “It was finished for us, by us, for our future, and we have to commit ourselves to that.”
On the convention, Hochstein criticsized the reduce, which finally “will rise too excessive and speed up an financial downturn” internationally. In October, OPEC+ and its allies agreed to chop oil manufacturing by 2 million barrels a day starting in November, a transfer broadly thought to be a present to Russia as Europe copes with inflation after sanctioning the nation.
“Oil is the one factor [Russia has] left in that financial system … Putin has destroyed the remainder of the financial system,” Hochstein advised CNBC on Monday. “All he’s obtained left is the stuff that comes out of the bottom. He gained’t promote his gasoline to Europe anymore, so all he has is oil, in order that’s what funds this struggle.”
UKRAINE GRAIN DRAIN: U.N. Secretary-Common ANTÓNIO GUTERRES is engaged in “intense contacts” aimed toward bringing Russia again to the desk after it suspended its settlement to permit the export of grain from Ukraine’s ports, as our personal JONES HAYDEN reported over the weekend.
The deal, brokered by the U.N. and Turkey in the summertime, was designed to make sure that Ukrainian agricultural merchandise can attain worldwide markets. It’s thought of vital to international meals safety since Ukraine is a significant producer of foodstuffs. Turkish Protection Minister HULUSI AKAR “has been assembly along with his counterparts” over the state of affairs as effectively.
Moscow’s pullback drew criticism from prime U.S. officers, with Secretary of State ANTONY BLINKEN blaming Russia for “weaponizing meals” and President JOE BIDEN calling the transfer “purely outrageous.”
SWITCHING SIDES: Russia is recruiting Afghan particular forces troopers who as soon as fought alongside American troops earlier than fleeing to Iran after the U.S.’s withdrawal from the area final yr, the Related Press’ BERNARD CONDON stories, citing three former Afghan generals.
Moscow’s purpose is to place collectively a “overseas legion” of elite fighters, providing regular month-to-month funds of $1,500 and promising security for them and their households from the Taliban. A GOP report in August warned that the previous Afghan commandos, educated by U.S. Navy SEALs and Army Inexperienced Berets, might hand over details about U.S. techniques to overseas adversaries.
“They don’t need to go combat — however they don’t have any alternative,” ABDUL RAOF ARGHANDIWAL, one of many former generals, advised the AP, saying he has texted with a couple of dozen commandos. “They ask me, ‘Give me an answer? What ought to we do? If we return to Afghanistan, the Taliban will kill us.’”
Recruitment is being led by the Wagner Group, a paramilitary group based by Russian oligarch YEVGENY PRIGOZHIN, Arghandiwal stated. A former Afghan particular forces commander who lived in Russia can also be serving to with the efforts, in accordance with Hibatullah Alizai, the final Afghan military chief earlier than the Taliban took over.
IT’S MONDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Day by day. This area is reserved for the highest U.S. and overseas officers, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the consultants and the folks such as you who care about how the natsec sausage will get made. Purpose your suggestions and feedback at [email protected] and [email protected], and comply with us on Twitter at @alexbward and @mattberg33.
When you’re at it, comply with the remainder of POLITICO’s nationwide safety staff: @nahaltoosi, @woodruffbets, @politicoryan, @PhelimKine, @BryanDBender, @laraseligman, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @AndrewDesiderio, @magmill95, @ericgeller, @johnnysaks130 and @Lawrence_Ukenye.
ETHIOPIA PEACE TALKS EXTEND: Peace talks to finish the battle in Ethiopia’s Tigray area have been prolonged into Monday, the Related Press’ CARA ANNA stories, citing an official conversant in the preparations.
The discussions, facilitated by former Nigerian president OLUSEGUN OBASANJO, former South African deputy president PHUMZILE MLAMBO-NGCUKA and former Kenyan president UHURU KENYATTA, mark the highest-level effort to finish the lethal two-year battle between the Ethiopian authorities and the Tigray Individuals’s Liberation Entrance.
Talks started on Tuesday and had been slated to finish on Sunday. It was not instantly clear why the dialogue was prolonged.
RANSOMWARE SUMMIT: The White Home will host representatives from 36 international locations and the European Union for a summit on ransomware Monday and Tuesday, our associates at Morning Cybersecurity (for Execs!) report.
It comes because the administration combats a cussed digital risk that has persevered even after final yr’s assault on a significant East Coast gasoline provide pipeline elevated digital extortion to a high-profile nationwide safety subject. The representatives of the Counter Ransomware Initiative — an intergovernmental partnership the White Home shaped final October — have been cooperating during the last yr to arrest ransomware actors, enhance potential victims’ defenses, hint the digital currencies that gasoline extortion funds and apply stress to states that fail to handle ransomware exercise inside their borders.
Over the course of the 2 days, CRI members will hear from a who’s who of prime U.S. officers, together with FBI Director CHRISTOPHER WRAY, Deputy Treasury Secretary WALLY ADEYEMO, Deputy Secretary of State WENDY SHERMAN and Nationwide Safety Adviser JAKE SULLIVAN.
MASSIVE MILITARY DRILL: The U.S. and South Korean air forces started their largest-ever joint drills on Monday regardless of hypothesis that they might be halted in the course of the nationwide mourning interval, NK News’ JEONGMIN KIM and SHREYAS REDDY report.
The mourning interval was referred to as after a crowd surge in Seoul killed greater than 150 folks, together with two Individuals, on Saturday. Nonetheless, the Vigilant Storm train went on as deliberate and can proceed by way of Friday, a army official stated.
Round 240 plane and 1000’s of army personnel from each international locations will take part within the drills, performing roughly 1,600 sorties.
ON-SITE INSPECTIONS: U.S. personnel have lately resumed on-site inspections of billions of {dollars} price of weapons despatched to Ukraine following the return of the U.S. protection attaché and workplace of protection cooperation personnel to the nation, a senior protection official advised reporters on Monday. The inspections are going down “each time and wherever the safety situations permit,” the official stated, per our personal LARA SELIGMAN.
“In every occasion, our staff from Kyiv from the U.S. embassy has discovered the Ukrainians to be very clear and in a position to assist inspection as we had been doing previous to the invasion,” added the official, who supplied the briefing to reporters on situation of anonymity.
The announcement comes days after the State Division launched a brand new technique aimed toward stopping pro-Russian forces in Ukraine from getting maintain of U.S. weapons meant for Kyiv.
Over the following two years, State plans to coach Ukrainian groups — and later officers in neighboring states — on the right way to discover and doc U.S. gear, with a specific concentrate on anti-air and anti-armor missiles.
MURPHY WANTS TWITTER REVIEW: Sen. CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.) needs the Committee on Overseas Funding in america to probe Saudi Arabia’s Kingdom Holding Firm’s continued stake in Twitter.
“We ought to be involved that the Saudis, who’ve a transparent curiosity in repressing political speech and impacting U.S. politics, at the moment are the second-largest proprietor of a significant social media platform,” Murphy tweeted. “There’s a clear nationwide safety subject at stake and CFIUS ought to do a evaluate.”
“If this deal goes by way of, two of an important U.S. social media platforms shall be owned, in complete or partly, by China (TikTok) and Saudi Arabia (Twitter). It is a harmful pattern, and we do not have to just accept it,” the senator continued.
Earlier this month, The Washington Submit’s JOSH ROGIN reported that Saudi Arabia sentenced a U.S. citizen to 16 years in jail over his tweets.
BIDEN LOSES TEMPER: Tensions flared in a June cellphone name between when Biden misplaced his mood in a dialog with Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, NBC News’ CAROL E. LEE, COURTNEY KUBE and DAN DE LUCE report.
Simply after the U.S. finalized $1 billion in army help for Ukraine, Zelenskyy continued to listing weapons he wanted, which annoyed Biden. Relations between each leaders have improved for the reason that tense dialog, and Zelenskyy publicly thanked Biden for ongoing U.S. assist.
“I had an necessary dialog with U.S. President Biden at this time,” he stated. “I’m grateful for this assist. It’s particularly necessary for our protection in Donbas.”
The revelation comes as whispers proceed all through Washington of a worse-than-reported relationship between Washington and Kyiv. Biden getting annoyed with Zelenskyy provides one other knowledge level.
— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY:SAHAR HAFEEZ has left the White Home the place she served as director for worldwide economics on the Nationwide Safety Council. She is now a senior adviser on the Commerce Division.
— FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY:TOBIAS HARRIS will be a part of the German Marshall Fund because the Asia Program’s deputy director beginning Tuesday. He was beforehand a senior fellow for Asia on the Middle for American Progress.
Harris shall be taking on for KRISTI GOVELLA, the present deputy director of the Asia Program, who’s heading to the College of Hawaii in November to face up a brand new Middle of Indo-Pacific Research.
— BRITTANY PARKER has been promoted to be deputy director for evaluation on the workplace of the secretary of Protection. She most lately was a technique adviser within the workplace.
— MATT DUSS is now a visiting fellow on the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace’s American Statecraft program. He was beforehand the overseas coverage adviser to Sen. BERNIE SANDERS (I-Vt.).
—ZOE MARKS, FATEMEH HAGHIGHATJOO, and ERICA CHENOWETH, Overseas Affairs: Iran’s Ladies on the Frontlines
— Editorial Board, Bloomberg News: Appoint a Watchdog for Ukraine Assist
— SHALOM LIPNER, Overseas Coverage: “How Spiritual Zionism Threatens BENJAMIN NETANYAHU”
— The Naval Submarine League, 8:15 a.m.: Increasing The Attain Of The Undersea Pressure
— The Atlantic Council, 8:30 a.m.:Convention on the way forward for the US-Pakistan relationship
— The Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research, 10 a.m.:“CISA Strategic Plan for 2023-2025: The Way forward for U.S. Cyber and Infrastructure Safety”
— The Quincy Institute for Accountable Statecraft, 12 p.m.:“The Pentagon, Local weather Change, and Battle”
— The Atlantic Council, 2 p.m.:“The way forward for US nuclear technique: Releasing the 2022 Nuclear Posture Overview”
— The George Washington College Elliott Faculty of Worldwide Affairs, 2:15 p.m.:“Protests in Iran: What’s Totally different This Time?”
Have a natsec-centric occasion developing? Transitioning to a brand new defense-adjacent or overseas policy-focused gig? Shoot me an e-mail at [email protected] to be featured within the subsequent version of the e-newsletter.
Because of our editor, Heidi Vogt, who has constantly denied our request for elevated funds.
And we thank our producer, Jeffrey Horst, who pays us with time and a spotlight.
