Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February has provoked a battle of nationwide resistance. Whereas some have described the invasion as “the greatest assault on a European state since World Warfare Two,” newer conflicts might reveal what’s prone to unfold because the battle continues. The continued battle in Syria could also be significantly instructive: Each Ukraine and Syria are — or have been — comparatively industrialized nations, and Russia both induced or has been a number one antagonist in these wars. Specifically, the character of the battle, the presence of international fighters, and the refugee disaster that got here to characterize the Syrian civil battle might portend what’s to return in Ukraine.
Techniques
The Russian army more and more seems to be making use of the tactical classes it realized from its intervention in Syria to the battle in Ukraine. In Syria, densely populated cities typically mounted vital resistance to the Assad regime. In response, the first antagonists within the Syrian civil battle, the Assad regime and its Russian backers, relied on siege warfare. This strategy restricted useful resource flows into the cities, breaking provide traces and crushing civilian assist for fighters in city facilities.
To breach metropolis defenses, the Russian army then indiscriminately bombed them — destroying civilian infrastructure like hospitals alongside army targets. Though civilian casualties mounted, city shelling enabled the Russian-allied Syrian authorities to recapture territory road by road. Past city warfare and indiscriminate bombing, the Assad regime additionally unleashed chemical weapons, together with sarin nerve gasoline, in Syria to suppress and defeat resistance, allegedly aided and abetted by Russia.
Russia’s ways in Ukraine present placing similarities to these utilized in Syria. Over the previous month and a half the Russian army besieged and encircled cities and surrounding areas, like Mariupol and Kyiv. They indiscriminately bombed these areas, typically leaving civilians who have been unable to flee alongside Ukrainian army models. They’ve focused theaters, hospitals, and practice stations in addition to army targets, inflicting over 1,800 estimated Ukrainian civilian deaths. On the identical time, the U.S. authorities has more and more raised alarms in regards to the potential for Russian use of chemical weapons in Ukraine.
Russia’s seven-year involvement within the civil battle in Syria means that city warfare ways of indiscriminate bombing and concentrating on of civilian infrastructure are prone to proceed, if not worsen, in Ukraine. The attainable penalties of such a brutal strategy will probably be not solely widespread devastation of Ukraine’s infrastructure and financial system but additionally vital civilian casualties.
Governance
The depth of the battle in Syria was inconsistently distributed throughout the nation. All through the battle, sure areas noticed intense preventing and contestation, with management of locations like Raqqa altering palms a number of instances. Different areas, like Tartous, have prevented vital battles and largely remained below authorities management. Even when preventing severed ties between cities and the central Syrian state, civilians in these locations performed a major position in organizing day-to-day life and sustaining normalcy to the best extent attainable.
Equally, in Ukraine the depth of battle has different considerably from area to area. Strategic areas and cities within the south and east of the nation have been scenes of extreme preventing, whereas most cities within the west stay largely untouched. In locations the place Russia has defeated Ukrainian forces, the Russian army has begun to form native governance and administration by figuring out political collaborators, kidnapping politicians who resist Russian rule, and taking part in Russian propaganda over the airwaves. Civilians’ peaceable protests in opposition to Russian occupation are met with threats to chop entry to water and electrical energy. If Russia’s therapy of its personal residents is any indication, Russian oppression of Ukrainian civilians might intensify as opposition to Moscow’s rule will increase. Certainly, the atrocities at Bucha are a sign of how Russia will consolidate political energy and authority in occupied territories. If Kyiv falls or the Russian army breaks ties between the capital and different cities, civilians and political leaders elsewhere may have to determine self-reliant administrative programs to take care of every day life whereas defending in opposition to Russian assaults. This would come with offering companies like trash assortment, electrical energy, education, and well being care.
International fighters
The inflow of international fighters to Syria featured prominently in protection of the civil battle. Aspiring troopers flocked to hitch the ranks of various sides, with leftists becoming a member of Kurdish fighters, whereas jihadists from Russia to Australia joined the Islamic State. Because the battle has moved to a detailed, the repatriation and reintegration of those international fighters has grow to be an more and more fraught safety concern. Governments are hesitant to permit the return of people who might have fight coaching, connections to armed teams globally, and resentment in opposition to their residence nation: a potent mixture for potential violence of their residence nations.
Likewise, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted folks from around the globe to journey to Ukraine to struggle. Nonetheless, the presence of international fighters has raised considerations that the battle may unfold extremist right-wing ideologies. Although most international fighters have no connection to right-wing extremism, and traditionally they’ve typically been handled as “cannon fodder” in different conflicts, extremists might acquire expertise that they may carry again residence and may make them extra deadly home terrorists. As violence by right-wing extremists is already on the rise, governments ought to more and more monitor the risks of right-wing extremists with fight expertise and world connections to like-minded supporters.
Refugees
The Syrian civil battle induced practically 7 million folks to flee overseas to flee the violence that engulfed the nation, alongside one other practically 7 million who’re internally displaced. Though some Syrians resettled in Europe, the overwhelming majority of refugees (5.5 million) are in neighboring nations within the Center East, primarily Lebanon, Jordan, and Turkey. Lebanon, as an example, absorbed much more Syrian refugees relative to its inhabitants than some other nation on this planet: nearly 25% of Lebanon’s inhabitants. These refugees have offered distinctive challenges to host governments whereas exacerbating current issues (comparable to trash assortment and visitors).
An estimated 4 million Ukrainians have already fled the violence to neighboring European nations like Poland and Romania, which have been uncharacteristically beneficiant in accepting refugees from Ukraine. One other 7 million Ukrainians have been displaced internally. Although host nation hospitality ought to proceed, governments ought to keep in mind the pressing wants of refugees — from primary requirements like meals, clothes, and well being care to longer-term necessities like education, housing, and employment — in addition to the extra challenges to every day life ensuing from the fast and big inflow of individuals. These challenges are prone to persist throughout the battle and for years after.
Takeaways for US coverage
The similarities between the battle in Syria and Ukraine provide many classes for U.S. policymakers. City warfare is prone to be a continued function of the battle. U.S. army assist ought to embrace weapons and defensive tools fitted to use in city environments, and personnel who’ve technical experience in utilizing these weapons in densely populated environments needs to be made obtainable to their Ukrainian counterparts. On the identical time, U.S. assist to Ukraine ought to embrace humanitarian assist that dietary supplements the numerous lack of civilian infrastructure: hospitals, utilities like electrical energy and communications, and meals.
The uneven distribution of battle additionally signifies that some areas of Ukraine may face higher devastation than others. Given the indiscriminate violence in opposition to civilians by Russian forces that some have thought of to be genocidal, to the extent that it’s logistically possible, the U.S. might wish to contemplate attainable assist for self-defense and administrative self-reliance efforts by Ukrainian civilians who fall exterior the safety of the Ukrainian army. This might doubtlessly draw classes from U.S. assist to Syrian Kurdish defensive and governance efforts in opposition to the Islamic State.
Whereas the battle stays ongoing, america ought to enhance the variety of refugees it takes in from Ukraine and elsewhere. Growing refugee flows into america will alleviate the pressures to assist refugees in nations that neighbor conflict-affected states.
The U.S. must also contemplate what victory appears like and the set of post-conflict insurance policies that have an effect on Ukraine, Europe, and america. In Syria, it’s not clear what victory appears like. The Assad regime may stay in energy, posing a possible menace to one-time U.S. allies, the Syrian Kurds, whereas the regime’s reference to Russia additionally weakens U.S. affect within the area. The endgame in Ukraine is equally unclear. A negotiated settlement may give Russia the time to reorganize, regroup, and higher put together itself for an intensified assault. Equally, for Ukraine the entire liberation of its territory from Russia leaves few ensures in opposition to future invasion wanting extra widespread safety ensures. A victorious Russia that leads to regime change may equally set off civil battle and resistance in opposition to international imperialism, probably headed by any remaining Ukrainian army and political leaders.
If the battle does come to a detailed and Ukraine liberates its territory from Russian occupation, post-conflict reconstruction will probably be an extended and arduous course of. U.S. international coverage ought to give attention to aiding the reconstruction of civilian emergency companies, utilities, and rebuilding properties, roadways, and transit programs for refugees to return. In Europe, the reliance on Russian oil, gasoline, and coal stays a safety danger. The U.S. now has a possibility to advertise and spend money on renewable energies that will weaken the Russian financial system whereas additionally progressing towards world local weather objectives. Lastly, america needs to be involved in regards to the potential for returning right-wing extremists. Although unlikely, the already excessive exercise of right-wing extremists in america may make people who struggle in Ukraine and grow to be radicalized by right-wing ideology particularly deadly or higher in a position to recruit others in pursuit of violent and devastating ends.
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The battle in Ukraine is exclusive in that it’s an interstate battle of conquest and annexation, not seen for a few years within the worldwide system. However, america can nonetheless be taught key classes in regards to the dynamics that would outline this battle from different conflicts, particularly these through which Russia is a number one antagonist. Reasonably than strategy the battle in Ukraine as particular or distinctive as a result of it’s unfolding in Europe, the U.S. ought to look to the Syrian civil battle, which can present a helpful set of classes realized and insurance policies to think about each within the close to and long run.
Megan A. Stewart is an Assistant Professor at American College’s Faculty of Worldwide Service and a Non-Resident Scholar with MEI’s Protection and Safety Program. The opinions expressed on this piece are her personal.
Picture by Narciso Contreras/Anadolu Company through Getty Photographs
