Institute for the Examine of Battle, Russia Workforce
Russia acknowledged the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) and is deploying troops to Donetsk and Luhansk the night time of February 21, 2022. ISW revealed its evaluation of Russia’s seemingly instant plan of action at 3:30pm Japanese Time. Russian armed forces will seemingly assault Ukrainian forces on the line of contact to safe the parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts not at present below DNR/LNR management, seemingly accompanied by an air/missile marketing campaign in opposition to unoccupied Ukraine within the coming days. We assess that Russia will seemingly take a phased strategy moderately than instantly starting with the full-scale invasion.
This every day artificial product covers key occasions associated to renewed Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine and can substitute ISW’s earlier “Indicators and Thresholds for Russian Navy Operations in Ukraine and/or Belarus,” which we maintained from November 12, 2021, via February 17, 2022. That doc is now not up to date.
Key Takeaways February 21
- Russian troops started overtly deploying to occupied Donbas following Putin’s recognition of the independence of Russia’s proxy Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics.
- Putin gave a maximalist speech denying Ukrainian sovereignty and its proper to exist as an impartial state, justifying additional Russian offensive motion and indicating the Kremlin is unlikely to cease in Donbas.
- The White Home and Western states didn’t acknowledge Russia’s overt deployment of troops into Ukraine as an “invasion” however condemned Putin’s recognition of the DNR and LNR and introduced restricted sanctions.
- The Russian authorities falsely accused Ukrainian forces of attacking Russian territory for the primary time within the present disaster, setting circumstances for Russia to legitimize additional army motion in opposition to Ukraine.
- The USA warned the United Nations Excessive Commissioner for Human Rights of a Russian “kill listing” of politicians and sure future dissidents for Russia to focus on throughout a Russian occupation of Ukraine.
Key Occasions February 20, 2pm EST – February 21, 5pm EST
Navy occasions
Russia started deploying troops to Donbas, seemingly from the eighth Mixed Arms Army, following Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) on February 21. Impartial Russian information wire Interfax reported that DNR residents noticed two unidentified armored-vehicle columns transferring in DNR through the early morning of February 22.[1] Social media customers within the DNR claimed they noticed Russian forces coming into Donetsk through the night of February 21-22.[2] On-line visitors monitoring information confirmed that visitors slowed in Ivanovo-Yasinovka, Rostov Oblast, (roughly 10 kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian border) within the night on February 21.[3] Russian forces deploying into Donbas might have created this extra visitors.
Unspecified parts of Russia’s Strategic Rocket Forces (nuclear weapons) continued conducting readiness coaching and workout routines on February 20.[4] Servicemen educated on cellular floor missile methods and practiced working communication methods on the Kapustin Yar Coaching Floor and two different coaching facilities in Pereslavl-Zalessky, Yaroslavl Oblast, and Ostrov, Peskov Oblast. Extra unspecified parts of the Strategic Rocket Forces performed unspecified fight coaching with simulators.
Russian forces close to Ukraine, together with the 4th Tank Division, continued to deploy to staging grounds on the Ukrainian border on February 20 and 21.[5] Satellite tv for pc imagery noticed Russian forces on the Soloti storage camp in Belgorod redeploy south to the Ukrainian border on February 20.[6] Russian social media customers noticed a possible battalion tactical group of the 4th Tank Division outfitted with T-80U tanks redeploying to an unknown location from Belgorod, Russia.[7] Satellite tv for pc pictures noticed a brand new Russian cellular discipline hospital in Shebekino, Belgorod Oblast, Russia, (roughly 5 kilometers from the Russian-Ukrainian border) on February 20.[8] Satellite tv for pc imagery additionally noticed Russian helicopters in Belgorod for the primary time on February 21.[9] Russian social media customers noticed a prefabricated modular bridge that would assist Russian river crossings in Ukraine in transit via Crimea on February 21.[10] Unspecified Russian Southern Navy District parts performed river crossing workout routines on the Prudboy Coaching Floor in Volgograd on February 20.[11]
Chechen Rosgvardia (Russian Nationwide Guard) forces deployed to southern Belarus, 30km from the Ukrainian border, on February 21.[12] Belarusian social media customers noticed Russian Nationwide Guard parts from Chechnya in Yelsk, Belarus, for the primary time on February 21. The Kremlin might intend to make use of Rosgvardia forces as an occupation drive in Ukraine.
Russian Exercise
Russian President Vladimir Putin formally acknowledged the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) and signed mutual cooperation treaties stipulating the deployment of Russian forces to Donbas following speeches trying to justify Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine on February 21.[13] The Kremlin decreed that Russian troops will deploy to hold out “peacekeeping capabilities” within the DNR and LNR and that Russia will formally set up diplomatic relations and implement treaties of “friendship, cooperation and mutual Help” with the DNR and LNR.[14] The Kremlin’s resolution to acknowledge the DNR and LNR is a significant strategic shift within the Kremlin’s strategy to the battle in Donbas and marks the Kremlin’s official departure from supporting the Minsk II Agreements—the authorized foundation of all ceasefires since 2015 and the premise that preserved Ukraine’s territorial integrity in Donbas. The Kremlin will overtly deploy army forces to Donbas and conduct overt army operations in opposition to Ukraine as ISW forecasted.[15]
Kremlin media aired a prerecorded Russian Safety Council assembly the morning of February 21 to justify recognizing the DNR and LNR. Every member of the Safety Council said justifications for recognizing the DNR and LNR. Putin, Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov, and Kremlin Consultant on Ukraine Dmitry Kozak all said Ukraine by no means meant to implement and has deserted the Minsk II Accords, with Lavrov including the West is not going to drive Ukraine to adjust to the Minsk II Accords. Putin and Lavrov reiterated that NATO has refused to reply favorably to the Kremlin’s safety calls for on limiting NATO enlargement. Kozak said neither Ukraine nor the West “want” the Russian-occupied territory in Donbas and that Kyiv has a political curiosity in protecting the battle in Donbas a frozen battle. Russian Protection Minister Sergey Shoigu claimed intensifying Ukrainian assaults in opposition to the DNR and LNR created a humanitarian disaster, claiming that 90 % of Donetsk residents don’t have any water. Deputy Chairman of the Safety Council Dmitry Medvedev argued the Kremlin ought to acknowledge the DNR and LNR regardless of the price of Western sanctions, citing the Kremlin’s recognition of its proxies in Georgia in 2008. Putin tried to border the preplanned speeches as an unplanned assembly, prone to generate the notion of Kremlin buy-in to the popularity of the DNR and LNR, forcing key figures within the Russian authorities to publicly assist his pre-planned motion.
Putin gave a speech previous to signing the decrees attacking the idea of Ukraine as a sovereign state, setting circumstances for additional Russian offensive motion. Putin claimed Ukraine is an “integral a part of [Russia’s] personal historical past, tradition, religious area” and was solely created following the 1917 Russian Revolution. Putin claimed nationalists and oligarchic clans rule trendy Ukraine and that the 2014 Euromaidan Revolution was a Western-backed coup. Putin claimed NATO can immediately management Ukrainian forces to assault Russia and that NATO “cheated” its 1991 “guarantees” to not develop eastward. Putin claimed “Russia has executed all the pieces to protect the territorial integrity of Ukraine” via the Minsk II Accords since 2015. Putin said his resolution to “instantly acknowledge the independence and sovereignty” of the DNR and LNR is “lengthy overdue” and requested the Russian Federal Meeting to ratify the treaties “within the very close to future,” which the Federal Meeting will seemingly do on February 22. Putin demanded that Ukraine instantly stop nonexistent hostilities in opposition to Donbas.
The Russian authorities falsely accused Ukrainian forces of attacking Russian territory in Rostov with artillery and floor forces on February 21 to legitimize additional army motion in opposition to Ukraine.[16] Russia’s Southern Navy District claimed it destroyed two Ukrainian infantry preventing automobiles and killed 5 Ukrainian militants that crossed the border into Russian territory in Mityakinskaya, Rostov Oblast, on February 21.[17] The Russian Federal Safety Service (FSB) additionally claimed that Ukrainian artillery destroyed a Russian border checkpoint close to Shcherbakovo, Rostov Oblast.[18] FSB Director Alexander Bortnikov stated that Russian forces captured one Ukrainian prisoner who participated within the assaults through the Russian Safety Council assembly on February 21.[19] Ukrainian authorities officers denied these falsely alleged assaults on February 21.[20] The Kremlin will seemingly use these falsely claimed assaults to justify Russian army operations in opposition to Ukraine.
The Kremlin amplified claims that Ukrainian aggression led to mass evacuations within the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) on February 21.[21] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov accused the Ukrainian Armed Forces of initiating provocations, endangering civilian lives, and intensifying shelling.[22] Russian Overseas Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova accused the West of encouraging Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to denounce the Minsk II Accords and destroy Ukraine.[23] Zakharova added that US Embassy in Moscow launched a “actual info terrorist assault” geared toward horrifying Russians about terrorist assaults in public locations alongside the Ukrainian border and in massive Russian cities. Russia’s Ministry of Emergency Conditions and Russian Safety Service (FSB) claimed 61,000 evacuees have entered Russia as of February 21.[24] The Ministry introduced that 43 areas can host as much as 42,000 DNR and LNR evacuees. The Ministry claimed it has established about 400 non permanent lodging factors and is growing a further 149 factors to accommodate as much as 54,000 individuals. Russia’s Cupboard of Ministers allotted 5 billion rubles in funds to DNR and LNR evacuees on February 21.[25] Russian Federation Council First Deputy Chairman Sergey Ryabukhin reiterated that monetary support to DNR and LNR residents is not going to negatively affect Russians residing inside the Russian territory and can forestall the higher prices of a “humanitarian disaster.”[26]
Proxy Exercise
The Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) claimed that Ukraine intensified its aggression via elevated shelling and bombings concentrating on infrastructure and authorities buildings on February 20-21.[27] The DNR and LNR almost certainly intensified their claims of Ukrainian aggression on February 20-21 to justify Russia’s formal recognition of the LNR and DNR as impartial states and subsequent Russian army actions into DNR and LNR-held territory on February 21. The LNR and DNR repeatedly claimed that Ukrainian particular forces saboteurs tried to bomb vital infrastructure, most notably the LNR Joint Middle for Management and Coordination (JCCC) and DNR artillery rocket and artillery depots, coal mines, water stations, electrical energy suppliers, and colleges.[28] The DNR additionally claimed that one Ukrainian soldier died whereas trying to arrange an explosive machine at a Donetsk practice station on February 21.[29] The DNR and LNR claimed that Ukrainian shelling killed two LNR civilians, one DNR soldier, and one DNR civilian.[30]
Ukrainian Tradition and Info Coverage Minister Oleksandr Tkachenko stated that Ukraine uncovered 10 faux studies of Ukraine-initiated aggression in opposition to the DNR and LNR on February 19-20 and reiterated that the Kremlin, DNR, and LNR are conducting a disinformation marketing campaign to painting Ukraine because the aggressor in Donbas.[31] CNN reported on February 21 that US forensic analysts stated the metadata of the video portraying the February 11 alleged Ukrainian provocation in Donetsk exhibits the video was made three days earlier than the claimed date of the occasion.[32] DNR and LNR claims of Ukrainian aggression and provocations in Donbas are seemingly all coordinated and staged to falsely painting Ukraine because the aggressor within the rising battle in Donbas.
Belarusian Exercise
Belarusian Chief of the Basic Workers Viktor Gulevich reiterated that Russian forces deployed in Belarus will solely depart Belarus and return to their bases in Russia “when there’s an goal want” and demanded the USA and NATO states withdraw troops from close to Belarusian borders on February 21.[33] Gulevich additionally demanded that NATO let Belarus management NATO’s withdrawal via unspecified “verification measures.” Gulevich stated that NATO’s jap enlargement is “aggressive and unjustified” and solely will increase the chance of armed battle in Japanese Europe. Gulevich reiterated that Western army strain in opposition to the Union State and “aggravation of the state of affairs in Donbas” influenced the choice for Russian forces to stay in Belarus indefinitely.
Ukrainian Exercise
N/A
US Exercise
US officers condemned Russia’s recognition of the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) on February 21 however said Russia’s overt deployment of forces to Donbas shouldn’t be a brand new step, declining to state what the White Home would take into account a Russian “invasion” of Ukraine. US President Joe Biden signed an govt order to impose sanctions in opposition to investments, imports, and exports to the DNR and LNR.[34] The White Home emphasised that these sanctions—that are largely symbolic, as the USA has little to no commerce with Russia‘s proxies—are separate from sanctions it’s ready to impose in response to an additional Russian invasion of Ukraine. US Nationwide Safety Adviser Jake Sullivan said on February 21 {that a} Russian invasion of Ukraine might start “within the coming hours or days” and can be “extraordinarily violent.”[35] US Ambassador to the OSCE Michael Carpenter condemned the Kremlin’s resolution to acknowledge Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) and criticized the ”pressured mobilization” of military-age male residents in these areas.[36] A number of reporters quoted nameless senior administration officers stating the White Home doesn’t view Russian forces working overtly in Donbas as a brand new step triggering a US response.[37] Putin will seemingly section additional offensive operations in opposition to Ukraine partially to diffuse Western responses to his operations.
The New York Instances reported on February 20 that the USA intercepted Kremlin orders for Russian army items to “proceed with an invasion of Ukraine” the week earlier than US President Joe Biden’s speech on February 18, whereas CNN individually reported the USA has not but seen a number of indicators of a large-scale invasion.[38] The New York Instances moreover reported that US intelligence confirmed the Russian army has ready to execute an unspecified assault plan and that 40-50 % of items have shifted into fight formations. US intelligence officers individually informed CNN that the USA nonetheless has not seen a number of “bigger actions,” similar to digital jamming and cyberattacks, past beforehand seen tactical indicators.[39] The Kremlin will seemingly pursue a phased operation and proceed its army buildup all through the week, moderately than launching an instantaneous full-scale invasion of unoccupied Ukraine.
US Consultant to the UN Bathsheba Nell Crocker warned the UN of a Russian “kill listing” of Ukrainians to focus on following a possible invasion on February 20.[40] Crocker claimed Russia has compiled a listing of Ukrainians to kill or ship to internment camps after invading Ukraine in a letter to UN Excessive Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied the existence of the listing on February 21. Crocker additionally warned that Russia will seemingly use deadly drive to disperse potential Ukrainian protests or peaceable resistance to an occupation. Overseas Coverage first reported on the US intelligence of a Russian ”kill listing” on February 18.[41]
US President Joe Biden agreed “in precept” on February 21 to satisfy with Russian President Vladimir Putin except Russia invades Ukraine, although it’s unclear as of publication if the White Home considers Putin’s recognition of the DNR and LNR an invasion.[42] French President Emmanuel Macron proposed Putin meet with Biden in a telephone name with Putin on February 20. The Kremlin didn’t decide to the assembly. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said that Russia can not make concrete summit plans whereas “tensions rise.” Peskov advised that Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken talk about plans for a summit throughout their deliberate February 24 assembly. The White Home introduced that any presidential assembly is contingent on Russia lowering its forces alongside the Ukrainian border. Ukrainian Overseas Minister Dmytro Kuleba welcomed diplomatic talks with Russia however requested that the opposite everlasting United Nations Safety Council members, Ukraine, Germany, and Turkey be included in a gathering.[43]
The US Embassy in Moscow warned of attainable Russian false flag assaults on public facilities round Moscow, St. Petersburg, and the Ukrainian border on February 21.[44] The US Embassy in Moscow warned people to keep away from procuring facilities, railway, and metro stations, and different public gathering places. Russian Overseas Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview that Russia had not seen proof to assist the US declare.
NATO and EU Exercise
A number of European leaders condemned the Kremlin’s resolution to acknowledge the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) as impartial states and promised sanctions on Russia.[45] Western leaders together with Macron, NATO Secretary-Basic Jens Stoltenberg, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, United Nations Secretary-Basic Antonio Guterres, European Council President Charles Michel, and European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen condemned Putin’s resolution to acknowledge the DNR and LNR as flagrantly violating the Minsk II Settlement on February 21.[46] Michel and Leyen referred to as the popularity ”unlawful” and promised that the EU would impose sanctions in opposition to “these concerned” in a joint assertion. Putin knowledgeable Macron and Scholz individually over the telephone that he deliberate to acknowledge the DNR and LNR previous to his public announcement, in keeping with the Kremlin.[47]
Putin seemingly seeks to drive a wedge between Western leaders and Ukraine by steadily growing his aggression in opposition to Ukraine to introduce doubt into Western plans to impose sanctions in response to an “invasion.” Ukraine might understand a scarcity of Western assist if sanctions aren’t instantly imposed following the deployment of Russian “peacekeeping” forces into the DNR and LNR. No Western state has agreed to impose a deliberate package deal of “post-invasion” sanctions as of February 21. Leyen beforehand promised on February 20 that the EU would lower Russia off from worldwide monetary markets if it invades Ukraine.[48] EU Overseas Affairs Chief Josep Borell stated on February 21 that the EU has a sanctions package deal—together with export limitations in key industries, freezing belongings of Kremlin-friendly people, and an import ban on Russian oil and gasoline—that the EU can implement steadily “relying on the extent of [Russia’s] aggression.”[49] The EU additionally adopted a $1.36 billion “emergency assist package deal” to Ukraine to mitigate the disaster’s detrimental results on monetary and financial stability throughout a gathering on February 21.[50] Throughout the assembly, Ukrainian Overseas Minister Dmytro Kuleba urged the EU to grant Ukraine a pathway to EU membership to ship Russia a political message.[51]
Different Worldwide Group Exercise
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Particular person Western Allies’ Exercise
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Different Worldwide Exercise
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