Within the two weeks previous to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Marine Corps College ran a four-day wargame to simulate the primary a number of days of simply such an invasion. Considered one of us ran the wargame whereas the others performed the Ukrainian and Russian forces. Regardless of a number of stark variations, the present Russian offensive is enjoying out in methods eerily just like that simulation.
By the point the wargame ended, the general scenario appeared very a lot because it does on the bottom in Ukraine, with solely two main deviations. First, the Russians have pushed more durable out of Belarus to the west of the Dneiper — north of Kyiv — to strike the town from the rear. And secondly, the Russian assault in Kherson was quickly halted, because the axis of advance within the south for a time turned northeast towards Mariupol. Each of those actions have been, nevertheless, mentioned by the gamers within the wargame.
One other distinction was within the influence of the Russian air and missile marketing campaign. Within the recreation, Russian operations started with a sequence of missile and airstrikes, geared toward eliminating Ukraine’s air drive and destroying the nation’s built-in air protection system. Thus, the Russian gamers’ main focus, in the course of the first few days of the marketing campaign, was geared toward gaining freedom of maneuver within the skies — air dominance — together with destroying Ukraine’s coastal protection techniques. So, though the variety of precise strikes made by the Russians within the battle’s first 24-hours tracked nearly precisely to what was employed by the Russians within the wargame, the influence was considerably totally different. Within the wargame, each strike was centered on eliminating Ukraine’s air drive and air protection community. In actual life, the Russian strikes seem to have been extra broadly unfold over a spread of targets. Thus, the Russians employed far fewer munitions than required to cripple Ukraine’s air defenses or to considerably degrade their means to manage forces within the area. Briefly, not like within the recreation, the Russian assaults have been damaging however inadequate to overwhelm Ukraine’s defenses.
Determine 1
A lot of the Ukrainian air drive was destroyed on the bottom because of Kalibr and Kh-101 cruise missile strikes, particular operations-enabled concentrating on and direct motion, and air strikes. The surviving remnants have been overwhelmed and destroyed within the air, some being shot down by long-range air protection techniques in Russia, with ranges extending into Ukrainian airspace. This stands in stark distinction to what Russia has achieved in its precise operations. Going into the fifth day of the conflict, Ukraine’s air defenses are nonetheless functioning, even when at a decreased degree of effectiveness. Furthermore, by all accounts, the Ukrainian air drive stays within the battle, and together with the remaining air defenses is having some success in contesting Ukraine’s airspace. At current, the Russians seem to own air superiority, however the reported 30+ sorties the Ukrainians are launching every day have denied the Russians the extent of air dominance that they achieved within the wargame. Main preliminary targets within the wargame have been Ukrainian S-300 techniques round Kyiv, the Dnieper River bend, Kherson, and Odessa. Secondary targets have been Ukraine’s dozens of BUK (SA-17) techniques. The harm performed to Ukraine’s air protection system was intensive, neutralizing the core built-in air protection community within the first two days, though the dispersion of Ukraine’s BUK techniques assured a residual anti-air functionality. Furthermore, at the price of 30 to 40 plane, within the wargame, the Russians gained air dominance, because the Ukrainian air drive was just about worn out by day three of the wargame. There have been possible some residual survivors, however Ukraine’s means to function on the squadron degree was neutralized.
Within the wargame, the primary Russian floor offensive was purposely delayed, because the Russian gamers centered on a number of days of shaping fires geared toward destroying essential enemy capabilities earlier than committing the majority of their floor forces. Russia’s plan was to conduct a good longer interval of shaping, however the recreation was time-limited, forcing the gamers to start floor operations sooner than they wished. Nonetheless, the influence of the wargame’s shaping fires was profound, as as soon as the bottom forces superior, that they had robust assist from Russian airpower, now flying in uncontested skies. Right now, the Russian fires complicated (artillery, air, and missiles) switched its precedence to destroying Ukrainian fireplace assist techniques.
A lot of that is what one would anticipate primarily based on what we all know concerning the Russian manner of conflict. However the recreation differed in a number of main elements from what most analysts anticipated previous to the conflict. First, the quantity of fires employed within the wargame was solely a fraction of what the Russians had accessible. Additionally, initially of the marketing campaign, the Russians averted putting on the 4 regional Ukrainian command and management headquarters, with a purpose to enable them to speak their give up if the federal government collapsed. Consequently, all through the wargame, these headquarters remained practical and efficient, because the Russians centered a lot of their accessible long-range strikes on gaining air dominance. These headquarters have been simply beginning to come underneath intense strain when the sport ended.
In diverging from Western interpretations of the Russian manner of conflict, the wargame carefully mimicked what we principally noticed within the first few days of Russia’s precise army operations. Russia’s obvious reticence to bury Ukraine’s army underneath a blanket of fireside has shocked many Western observers. However it was nearly the exact plan of action the Russians undertook within the wargame. The one distinction was that within the wargame these strikes have been centered on eliminating Ukraine’s air drive and air protection community, whereas the precise distribution of Russian strikes has been extra diversified. Additionally, within the recreation, the air and missile strikes occurred earlier than the bottom offensive started, whereas in actual life the Russians seem to have forgone a strike section of operations in favor of launching their strike marketing campaign concurrently with the bottom offensive. However because the battle continues and Russian frustrations develop over their failure to quickly collapse Ukrainian resistance, one can anticipate the Russians to revert to kind and begin using their overwhelming superiority in artillery and airpower rather more indiscriminately. In reality, information studies point out that’s already taking place.
Determine 2
The map above exhibits the prewar garrison positions of Ukraine’s land forces. Because the Ukrainian authorities made a political calculation to not mobilize or transfer models into defensive positions, this map possible represents the place most Ukrainian army formations began the conflict. The essential early resolution for Ukraine was what to do with the 17 to twenty battalions arrayed on the road of management within the Donbas space. Realizing that these forces have been at excessive threat of envelopment and couldn’t face up to an all-out assault by Russia’s eighth Mixed Arms Army, the choice was made to withdraw to the Dnieper River, apart from the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade plus components of the 53rd and 54th Mechanized Brigades, which have been despatched to consolidate positions in and round Kharkiv.
The intent of those orders was to lure Russia’s eighth Mixed Arms Army into expending huge quantities of assets hitting empty positions, because the Ukrainians would have already fallen again to the Dnieper River. On the similar time, the Ukrainian staff hoped to make Kharkiv a second Stalingrad, which might suck ever-increasing numbers of Russian forces right into a bloody attritional battle. Within the recreation, transferring away from the road of management proved troublesome, as retreats underneath strain all the time are. A minimum of six Ukrainian battalions have been overrun, and the rest endured severe losses to aerial interdiction en path to the Dnieper. Within the precise battle, there are latest studies of Ukrainian models transferring off these traces struggling giant losses, because the wargame predicted. Nonetheless, the retreat was obligatory within the wargame to make sure these forces weren’t encircled from the north and by forces transferring out of Crimea. These similar considerations seem like driving the Ukrainians in the actual battle.
The wargame additionally generated substantial dialogue of what to do with the 5 brigades Ukraine has within the western a part of the nation. A few of that drive was moved north to the Belarussian border in case of a secondary Russian assault out of western Belarus, however most of it was ordered east to assist defend Kyiv and to bolster the Dnieper protection. At current, there may be little or no public dialogue of how the Ukrainians are literally using these forces.
Within the wargame, the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army attacked on an axis aimed on the Dnieper River bend, intent on bypassing Kharkiv to the north whereas the twentieth Mixed Arms Army approached the outskirts of Kharkiv. This seems to be precisely what the Russian forces have been trying within the first 96-hours of the conflict. As soon as once more, the wargame matched precise Russian strikes with uncanny accuracy.
The Ukrainian commander, within the wargame, determined to ship three brigades from the town to counterattack into the flank of Russian armored forces. This led to a significant engagement about 40 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv in opposition to the Russian twenty seventh Guards Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade. Within the ensuing battle, each the twenty seventh SMRB and the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade have been destroyed. A put up recreation evaluation determined that it might have been higher to maintain the Ukrainian drive within the metropolis per the unique plan and switch Kharkiv right into a fortress metropolis. If the Russians bypassed the town, the Ukrainians may have regarded for counterattack alternatives after Russia’s main fight formations had gone previous. In the event that they attacked the town in drive with the twentieth Mixed Arms Army, the Ukrainians may have turned it into one other Stalingrad. In actual life, the Ukrainians seem to have opted to do as our after-action evaluation tells us was the perfect plan of action, and Kharkiv continues to carry out in opposition to more and more ferocious Russian assaults.
Determine 3: Wargame State of affairs — Finish of Recreation Day 3 — Jap Entrance
Within the wargame, the Ukraine staff screened the bottleneck to the north of the Crimean Peninsula however couldn’t comprise a strong Russian assault that pushed via and superior on Kherson. On the third day of the wargame, the Russians launched a mixed floor, air, and amphibious assault on the Ukrainian defenses round Kherson — accelerated in execution as a result of brief time accessible to play the sport. There are simply two bridges on the southern sector of the Dnieper River that are key terrain. Each have been targets of the Russian floor and air assault, as a separate mixed air and amphibious assault landed on the west facet of the Dnieper to envelop Ukrainian defensive positions alongside the river line. On the time the sport ended, this main floor battle all alongside the river within the neighborhood of Kherson and alongside the shores of the Black Sea simply to the south and west of Kherson was nonetheless creating.
Within the recreation the Russian advance out of the Crimea was their most fast and profitable operation. When the sport ended, the Russians have been poised to strike in a number of of three instructions — west to Odessa, east to envelop the Ukrainians retreat out of the defensive traces alongside the separatist areas, or north to dislocate the Ukraine’s protection of the Dnieper line. On the fifth day of the conflict, we discover a related scenario, with the Russian forces having flowed out of the Crimea into near the identical positions they occupied within the wargame, and with the identical decisions earlier than them as we discovered within the wargame.
Determine 4: Wargame State of affairs — Finish of Recreation Day 3 — Southern Entrance
Within the north, a Ukrainian brigade performed a spoiling assault in opposition to Russian forces throughout the border in Belarus. This was a controversial transfer that achieved restricted tactical outcomes. These Ukrainian forces have been quickly lower off because the Russian forty first Mixed Arms Army attacked south into Ukraine on either side of the Dnieper River on the similar time. When the sport ended, Ukraine’s forces within the north have been underneath heavy strain (see map beneath) however apart from one brigade have been largely unengaged and remained astride the approaches to Kyiv. The defenses north of Kyiv had not damaged and if supported they might have held for a substantial interval.
Determine 5: Wargame State of affairs — Finish of Recreation Day 3 — Northern Entrance
Because the wargame ended, the Ukrainians have been underneath strain within the north, with Russian forces closing in on the jap approaches to Kyiv and the Dnieper River, whereas additionally starting to cross the border from Belarus into the northwest via the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Within the east, the Russians have been beginning to encircle Kharkiv and the eighth Mixed Arms Army was rising from the Donetsk space to assault in the direction of Melitopol and the Dnieper River. Once more, that is nearly exactly what we’re seeing on the bottom in Ukraine on the conflict’s fifth day.
Determine 6
Within the precise battle, Russia’s try at a fast transfer to Kyiv aiming to decapitate the federal government seems to have backfired. Whereas many observers have been shocked by the Russian strategy, it was the plan of action chosen by the Russian participant within the recreation. Furthermore, when the Ukrainians did not roll over and give up the Russians are more and more choosing their most popular firepower-heavy technique of warfare. Ukraine’s means to attain some early wins and display unimaginable acts of braveness from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on down have generated an impressed protection, just like Ukraine’s course within the wargame. Whereas the wargame didn’t simulate the strategic degree of warfare, the worldwide assist garnered by Ukraine’s heroic resistance might, in the long run, show deadly to Russia reaching its goals.
One wonders if the Russian failure to make use of their large fires capability to intentionally form the battlefield over an prolonged interval earlier than the bottom advance started will probably be marked by historians as a blunder. Within the wargame, this constraint on fires was deliberate, primarily based upon a method to compel a fast Ukrainian give up. A superb case might be made that the Russians made related calculations initially of the present conflict. Putin, and people advisers who nonetheless have his ear, might have been satisfied many Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators and the march to Kyiv can be a straightforward one. Thus, they’ve held again a lot of their overwhelming fires complicated to keep away from destroying important quantities of infrastructure and killing too lots of their Ukrainian “brothers.” This was the reasoning employed within the recreation, and most present reporting exhibits it was the considering dominating the Kremlin.
It should now be dawning upon senior commanders and probably even Putin that they’ve grossly miscalculated, and at the moment are in violation of Clausewitz’s most necessary dictum: “The primary, the supreme, essentially the most far reaching act of judgement that the statesman and a commander need to make is to determine … the form of conflict on which they’re embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor attempting to show it into, one thing that’s alien to its nature. That is the to begin with strategic questions and essentially the most complete.” What Ukraine should determine now could be Russia’s possible subsequent strikes, as Putin concludes that his invasion shouldn’t be going to be a modern-day Anschluss.
Russia should additionally now be contemplating subsequent steps. The Ukrainian army and persons are placing up a lot stouter resistance than Putin or any of his senior-most commanders anticipated. This case is worsened by one thing changing into extra obvious by the day; the Russian army’s capability to conduct an enormous joint and mixed arms assault might not be fairly nearly as good as marketed. Ukrainian resistance shouldn’t be but on the level the place one could make comparisons to Finland’s brave stand in opposition to Stalin’s Crimson Army within the 1940 Winter Warfare, however the potential for Ukraine holding out for weeks or months should now be a part of everybody’s calculations, together with the Russians.
That Zelenskyy stays able to speaking to his commanders and the skin world is encouraging and clearly has offered a strategic degree enhance within the info conflict and in Ukrainian morale. By nonetheless having the ability to talk to the skin world, Zelenskyy has single-handedly modified the strategic steadiness rallied Western assist past what anybody may have foreseen, to incorporate anti-tank weapon assist from each Germany and Sweden.
In the course of the wargame, there was a number of dialogue concerning the employment of data weapons, together with cyber. It’s subsequently noteworthy that apart from Nameless’ declaring cyber conflict on Russia, there may be little or no public reporting of precise cyberattacks by both facet. Previous to the battle one of many West’s nice considerations was Russia’s much-vaunted cyber capabilities. So, both the Russians are holding quite a few zero-day exploits in reserve, or it’s time to carefully look at how harmful cyber operations actually are. Furthermore, for all of the heated speak about hybrid and gray zone warfare, it is a battle of blood and iron, wherein Otto von Bismarck would have felt at house, one thing wargames are spectacularly good at simulating.
Nonetheless, even when one accepts that the Russians try to restrict Ukrainian casualties and infrastructure harm, it’s troublesome to disregard the actual fact the Russians have been sluggish off the mark. As soon as the Russian offensive started to roll there was a large expectation of a fast armored descent on Ukraine’s key cities — Kyiv, Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Odessa. At current, none of those cities have fallen, and the Russian floor offensive seems to be slowing, because it faces stiffening resistance and logistic challenges. It could end up the Russian advance was slowed as a consequence of political directives, however, for the time being, many observers can pretty attribute a lot of what’s being reported from the battlefield to normal Russian incompetence.
Solely within the south have we seen the Russians making the form of fast advances that have been anticipated to happen all through Ukraine. The Russians attacking out of the Crimea are already advancing on Mykolaiv, a distance of roughly 150 miles from their line of departure in Crimea. Different Russians forces seem to have captured the important thing city of Melitopol, and are advancing on the port of Berdyansk and Mariupol. On the opposite facet of the ledger, Ukrainian forces have counterattacked and retaken Kherson. Additionally, as of but, the Russians haven’t compelled the Dnieper within the south, and the forces within the east, pushing ahead north of Kharkiv, are nonetheless some distances from the Dnieper crossings. Solely to the north of Kyiv have the Russians made harmful positive factors. However as that is being written, even right here the Russian preliminary advances towards Kyiv seem to have been stymied some miles north of the town.
The Worth of Wargaming
Our Ukraine wargame is a part of a sequence of operational degree wargames designed by Marine Corps College to assist skilled army schooling and assist college students develop an understanding of the numerous operational challenges related to all area warfare and Nice Energy battle. The hope is that college students will develop insights from these wargames that assist them higher perceive joint warfighting. Within the case of this explicit wargame, its close to concurrent use with the precise begin of the conflict presents a possibility to make constructive comparisons and contrasts. Precise occasions additionally spotlight the significance of the human area and the way troublesome it’s to successfully mannequin or assess previous to battle. Whereas the sport does make allowance for elements of the human area, it’s laborious to think about issues just like the brave management being demonstrated by Zelenskyy and its influence on the desire of the preventing forces and the Ukrainian individuals.
One should be very cautious when utilizing a wargame for predictive functions. However, however, nobody concerned on this wargame has been a lot shocked by something unfolding on the bottom. Nearly all of it occurred throughout the recreation or was mentioned at size among the many gamers. That is in distinction with almost each knowledgeable and pundit on the airwaves, who’re expressing astonishment at how this battle is unfolding. If this wargame had been performed on the Pentagon or the White Home within the weeks main as much as the conflict, no strategist or policymaker can be shocked by any occasion up to now seen within the conflict.
The heroic resistance of the Ukrainians evokes awe and admiration. Nonetheless, their forces are tremendously outnumbered, notably within the air. Furthermore, Russia’s capability to pay attention huge floor fires — artillery, rockets, and missiles — nonetheless permits the Russian military to overwhelm the Ukrainians at any chosen level. If historical past gives any glimpse into the long run, the Russian military will finally uncoil, take up the conflict’s early classes, and renew its advance with grim willpower. Russia was making ready to do exactly that when the wargame ended. Nonetheless, one hopes that Western strain, and the infliction of unacceptable losses upon Putin’s legions will create a gap for a negotiated peace.
James Lacey, Ph.D., holds the Horner Chair of Warfare Research at Marine Corps College.
Tim Barrick is a retired Marine Corps colonel and the director of wargaming at Marine Corps College.
Nathan Barrick, Ph.D., a strategist at US Particular Operations Command, is at the moment a scholar on the Marine Corps Warfare School and a former U.S. Army Russian international space officer.
The views expressed on this article are the authors’ personal and don’t categorical the views or positions of Marine Corps College, the U.S. Marine Corps, the Division of Protection, or any a part of the U.S. authorities.
Picture: TASS (Photograph by Anton Vergun)
