February 24, the day Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, goes down as a turning level in trendy historical past.
As we hit the battle’s 100-day mark on Friday, one of the vital important classes is Russia’s much-feared “modernized” military, the most important in Europe, is, nicely, not so spectacular.
On Feb. 25, many Western pundits predicted that the Russian military, the successor to the Soviet Union’s Massive Pink Machine, would roll into Kyiv in days. Putin thought the identical. Many elite models he despatched south to Kyiv carried gown uniforms of their backpacks. They have been getting ready for a victory parade down Kreshchatyk, the principle avenue of Ukraine’s capital.
As an alternative, the world watched as Ukrainians rallied to cease the Russians useless of their tracks. Partisan models used drones to explode tanks. U.S.-supplied Stinger missiles shot down so many helicopters and bombers that Russia by no means managed the air. Diesel provides ran out. Troopers abandoned their models.
Blocked in Kyiv’s suburbs, Russian troopers descended into looting, ingesting, raping and capturing civilians. Earlier than retreating north to Belarus, Russian occupiers in Kyiv Area killed no less than 1,500 civilians and destroyed 5,000 homes and 161 high-rise house buildings.
In accordance with a each day tally maintained by Robert Homans, an American Ukraine professional in Washington, Russia misplaced 30,700 troopers within the first three months of the battle — greater than double the 14,453 Soviet troopers killed throughout the Soviet Union’s 10-year occupation of Afghanistan.
In accordance with this tally, which attracts on seven Ukrainian sources, Russia has misplaced: 208 fixed-wing plane in Ukraine, nearly double the losses in Afghanistan; 866 artillery items, double the losses in Afghanistan; 3,343 armored personnel carriers, 2.5 instances the losses in Afghanistan; and 1,361 tanks, 9 instances the losses in Afghanistan.
Going into the battle, Westerners have been guided by previous gee-whiz articles, equivalent to this April 2, 2014, piece in The New York Occasions: “In Crimea, Russia Showcases a Rebooted Army.” Written by two veteran reporters, the article got here out two weeks after Russia’s just about cold annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula, on the Black Sea. That shock operation blindsided Ukraine’s unprepared and demoralized navy. In that overwhelmingly Russia-speaking space, 9,268 troopers and sailors — half of Ukraine’s navy — defected. Solely two Ukrainian troopers died defending Crimea.
Nearly untested in a police motion, Russia’s military seemed sharp.
“Their uniforms have been crisp and neat, and their new helmets have been bedecked with tinted security goggles,” reported the Occasions. “They have been sober.”
Aleksandr Golts, an impartial navy analyst in Moscow, praised Putin’s large navy spending within the early 2000s, saying: “Because of these reforms, Russia now has absolute superiority over any nation within the post-Soviet area.”
The final phrase went to Mikhail Khodaryonok, a reserve Russian military colonel who was then editor in chief of Moscow’s Navy-Industrial Courier. He informed the Occasions: “The whole lot is so as. There isn’t a extra such disgrace as damaged tanks and A.P.C.’s on the highway, and outdated weaponry. … The epoch of decay has been totally overcome, and the armed forces of the nation are on the rise.”
Quick ahead to 2 weeks in the past.
The identical Mikhail Khodaryonok shocked viewers of “60 Minutes,” the principle speak present on Russia’s state-owned Rossiya 1 TV channel.
“The state of affairs (for Russia) will clearly worsen,” he warned on Might 16. Citing the huge Western support within the pipeline for Ukraine this summer time, he stated: “The Ukrainian military can arm 1,000,000 folks.”
Referring to Ukrainian troopers, he famous: “The need to defend their motherland very a lot exists. Final victory on the battlefield is set by the excessive morale of troops who’re spilling blood for the concepts they’re able to battle for.”
Past the battlefield, the veteran Russian analyst stated: “The largest drawback with (Russia’s) navy and political state of affairs is that we’re in complete political isolation and the entire world is in opposition to us. … The state of affairs can’t be thought-about regular when in opposition to us, there’s a coalition of 42 nations and when our sources, military-political and military-technical, are restricted.”
Two days later, Khodaryonok reappeared on the identical present. He reassured viewers of state-controlled TV that the outlook for Russian troopers in Ukraine this summer time shouldn’t be so dangerous.
