Few can be stunned to listen to that the US is concerned in supporting a democratic nation that was not too long ago invaded by its authoritarian neighbor. However many Individuals are possible unaware that their nation is doing so for two such post-Soviet nations: not simply Ukraine, but additionally Armenia, which has been affected by Azerbaijan’s invasion for nearly three weeks now.
The 2 conditions will not be unrelated. A key issue behind the continuing U.S. engagement in Armenia is Russia’s seen absence in a area that the latter considers its yard. However the U.S. isn’t merely making an attempt to push Russia out from the post-Soviet South Caucasus. Slightly, Washington appears to have realized simply how critical the menace is—not only for Armenia, however for the world.
Within the early minutes of Sept. 13, as households throughout japanese Armenia slept, Azerbaijan launched the unprovoked shelling of three dozen Armenian cities with heavy artillery and unmanned fight drones. The 2 international locations have been locked in off-and-on hostilities for many years over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh republic, however Azerbaijan’s regime now appears to benefit from its rival’s navy unpreparedness and world, particularly Russian, distraction. Azerbaijan tried to disclaim having attacked inside Armenia’s borders, however the onslaught was so intense that NASA’s fire-management satellites detected huge thermal anomalies. In simply two days, Azerbaijan’s forces killed over 200 Armenians, primarily troopers, in accordance with official authorities counts. Movies unfold by the invaders appeared to point out them laughing whereas mutilating fallen Armenian ladies, and executing Armenian troopers who had surrendered.
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Additional particulars of the incursion got here through Armenia-based journalists and officers alike. On Sept. 14, international journalists reported having come underneath Azerbaijani shelling within the Armenian city of Sotk, which is nowhere close to navy installations. The next day, on the United Nations Safety Council emergency listening to, Armenia disclosed that, regardless of the prior day’s ceasefire, Azerbaijan is amassing further troops, together with in Nakhichevan, Azerbaijan’s exclave bordering southwest Armenia. This may open a second invasion entrance. On Sept. 23, Western embassies in Yerevan issued still-active “journey warnings” for southern Armenia and past, insinuating that they anticipated additional assaults. Nonetheless, many media shops the world over lack on-the-ground regional journalists, so the information from Armenia largely stayed off the mainstream radar.
It was not till U.S. Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s go to to Armenia the weekend of Sept. 17, in help of Armenian “safety and democracy” towards Azerbaijan’s “unlawful and lethal assaults,” that it turned absolutely clear that the U.S., in a dramatic transformation, is absolutely engaged, albeit most likely solely diplomatically, in stopping existential threats towards Armenia.
Armenia’s Head of the Parliament Alen Simonyan (R) and U.S. Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi (L) attend a joint press convention within the Parliament in Yerevan, Armenia, on Sept. 18, 2022.
Karen Minasyan—AFP through Getty Photographs
Jackie Speier, one of many two Armenian-American Congresswomen to accompany Speaker Pelosi, recalled at a big Armenian-American gathering in Los Angeles on Sept. 25 that in Armenia she advised their dinner host, the Prime Minister, that she didn’t need one other woman to really feel the best way she did rising up: reluctant to determine as Armenian as a result of her homeland, then a part of the us, didn’t seem on a world’s map. Because the Congresswoman introduced on the gathering, she is introducing a decision in condemnation of and accountability for Azerbaijan’s struggle crimes and aggression, following the same movement by distinguished Home Democrat Adam Schiff, and a bipartisan Senate decision launched by key Senators Bob Menendez and Marco Rubio. However this isn’t about inner electoral politics.
Extra considerably—particularly as Congress has been traditionally attentive to Armenian American constituency issues—the White Home has now reworked its historically “both-sidist” rhetoric on the battle. It was the U.S., not the regional hegemon Russia, that performed the key function in halting Azerbaijan’s Sept. 13-14 aggression. Since then, the Biden Administration has initiated quite a few conferences for and with Armenian and Azerbaijani officers, each in individual and on the cellphone, regardless of threats by Azerbaijan’s authoritarian president—who has made Armenophobia his power-consolidation method since inheriting the presidency in 2003—that “nobody and nothing can cease us.”
U.S. engagement can also come as a shock provided that Armenia is formally a part of CSTO (Collective Safety Treaty Group), Russia’s failed mini-version of NATO. Preoccupied with its failing invasion of Ukraine and compelled mobilization of troops, Russia is each unable and unwilling to defend its treaty ally Armenia at present. However in 2020 and 2021, throughout earlier rounds of aggression by Azerbaijan, Russia likewise selected to not do extra to defend its ally, regardless of having had the navy would possibly to take action. On paper, Russia is democratic Armenia’s safety guarantor. In actuality, Russia and Azerbaijan, two fossil fuel-rich authoritarian states, are a lot nearer; the unwavering help for the latter by Turkey, which has develop into an ever-more essential associate for Russia given western sanctions, complicates Russia’s help for Armenia much more.
At this time, the U.S. seems to comprehend {that a} preoccupied Russia’s short-term absence within the Caucasus means potential involvement from not simply Turkey but additionally Iran, which has warned towards border modifications; it has a northern border with Armenia, a safe lifeline to Europe. A possible Turkey-Iran confrontation ensuing from Azerbaijan’s invasion of Armenia may end in an unmanageable destabilization of the Center East and past, one thing that neither Russia nor the U.S. need.
The U.S.’s latest involvement within the Caucasus is unprecedented. For the very first time for the reason that Chilly Struggle, it’s the actions of a rustic apart from Russia that matter most proper now within the area. Will Washington reach stopping a full-scale invasion of democratic Armenia? Is it keen to make sacrifices to satisfy that aim, comparable to promoting protection weaponry to Armenia and sanctioning Azerbaijan, regardless of intense Turkish strain and European vitality wants? The one public American sacrifice during the last three weeks in protection of Armenian existence seems to have come from the outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Armenia. On Sept. 28, Lynne Tracy risked her security to journey to Syunik, Armenia’s southmost area, regardless of her personal embassy’s journey warning towards visiting the complete area.
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Earlier, President Joe Biden introduced that he would nominate Tracy to function U.S. ambassador to Russia, a testomony to her braveness and to the need of a deeper understanding of Moscow via those that are most depending on it. Maybe Washington realizes that if it fails to thwart Azerbaijan’s subsequent aggression, it would go away Armenia with no selection however to additional combine with Russia. Related circumstances a century in the past, within the aftermath of the Armenian Genocide, helped to revive the collapsed Russian empire into the us.
With the potential of additional violence hanging over their talks, the international ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met in Geneva on Oct. 2, as Azerbaijani particular forces reportedly neared Armenia’s borders. Hostilities could resume any second, provided that Azerbaijan’s autocrat appears to have few causes for restraint. On the Oct. 1 unveiling of a brand new gasoline pipeline to Europe, E.U. chief Ursula von der Leyen praised Azerbaijan as “dependable”; Europe, dealing with the vitality impacts of its dedication to punish Russia, seems keen to embolden one other authoritarian aggressor. The U.S., at the least in rhetoric, appears to be barely extra cautious.
Whether or not the historical past—of unrealized western guarantees pushing a susceptible Armenia nearer to Russia—will repeat itself, this time as a merciless joke, largely is dependent upon the place American management goes subsequent.
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