(Might 29, 2022 / Jerusalem Institute for Technique and Safety) Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited his shut ally Iran on Might 8 for talks with Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi.
Iran’s Learn of the Talks
In response to Nournews, an outlet affiliated with Iran’s Supreme Nationwide Safety Council, on the assembly Khamenei praised Syria for its victory within the nation’s civil warfare and expressed willingness to extend and deepen bilateral cooperation.
Khamenei additionally voiced his criticism of Arab nations within the area that normalized ties with Israel or had high-level conferences with its officers. He added that this doesn’t replicate the pro-Palestinian, anti-Zionist place of those nations’ personal individuals. Raisi stated that “threats by the Zionist regime within the area should even be thought-about by way of strengthening and diversifying deterrence equations.”
The Supreme Chief’s web site said that Assad informed Khamenei and Raisi that Iran’s stance on regional points, specifically the Palestinians, over the previous 4 a long time have proven that “Iran’s path is an accurate path.” Assad additionally stated that whereas some imagine Iran provides the so-called “axis of resistance” throughout the area with weapons, its most important assist has been help for the “spirit of resistance.”
Assad added that “strategic” ties between Iran and Syria and the 2 nations’ resistance had change into the first forces that stop Israel’s dominance of the area.
Context of the Go to
Assad’s go to got here as he reaffirmed and consolidated his place after greater than a decade of civil warfare. Components of Syrian territory, nonetheless, do stay exterior Assad’s management. The northeast is managed by Kurdish forces of the Democratic Union Celebration (PYD), with its Folks’s Safety Units (YPG) and Ladies’s Safety Unit (YPJ) underneath the aegis of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Most of northwest Syria is managed by the Salafi-jihadist armed group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Turkish-backed Syrian Interim Authorities (SIG). Assad’s energy middle is concentrated within the west of the nation round Damascus to Aleppo and the Mediterranean coast, or what the French name “La Syrie utile.”
All through the warfare, Tehran supplied fixed and essential help to Assad’s navy forces—straight by way of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and not directly by way of armed Shi’ite proxies such because the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Afghan Liwa Fatemiyoun and the Pakistani Liwa Zainebiyoun.
It’s outstanding that that is solely the Syrian president’s second journey to Tehran because the begin of Syria’s civil warfare in 2011 (the primary was in February 2019). Earlier than this assembly with Khamenei, Assad visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This go to testified to the area’s readiness to normalize relations with Assad and participate within the reconstruction effort. The UAE is keen to pursue such reconciliation to scale back Syria’s dependence on Iran.
The go to additionally got here at a fragile second by which Assad’s different main overseas supporter, Russia, has targeted most (if not all) of its consideration on the warfare in Ukraine and redirected sources from the Levant to Jap Europe. In consequence, Assad may need felt the necessity to affirm Syria’s friendship with Tehran, whereas the IRGC might search to make use of this chance to fill the void left by an occupied Russia.
As well as, the warfare in Ukraine has come at an immense value to Russia by way of sanctions. Assad may need determined to cement his friendship with Tehran for worry that Moscow’s capability to put money into Syria’s reconstruction—which was meager to start with—can be decreased. Assad might also attempt to play Iran towards its Gulf rivals to attract sources from each.
Significance for Israel
The assembly solidified the Shi’ite Syrian-Iranian axis. The opposite members of this axis are Hezbollah, a number of Shi’ite militias in Iraq and the Houthis/Ansar Allah in Yemen.
For Israel, the shut ties between Assad and Khamenei are a continued supply of concern. Syria and Iran regard Israel as their fundamental enemy within the area. For apparent causes, Assad—who negotiated with Israel by way of intermediaries till 2011—has by no means dissented from Iran’s repeated requires the demise of the Jewish state.
Nonetheless, what ought to concern Israel essentially the most within the context of this Syrian-Iranian friendship is the liberty of motion that Damascus has granted in recent times to Iran and Hezbollah; specifically, within the southwestern areas of Syria which can be closest to Israel’s border.
On the identical time, Iran has used Syrian territory as a transit path to ship superior weapons and navy gear to Hezbollah. The safety concern for Israel is much more acute on account of Iran’s latest enlargement—each quantitatively and qualitatively—of its fleet of Unmanned Aerial Autos (UAVs).
Within the face of this safety menace, the continuation of Israel’s method to the warfare in Syria appears to be essentially the most fascinating plan of action. For the final eight years, Israel has been engaged in a “marketing campaign between wars,” by which it engaged in focused airstrikes towards Iranian and Iranian-linked positions in Syria to degrade Tehran’s capability and that of its allies to entrench themselves within the nation.
Israel’s marketing campaign has not ended the Iranian challenge in Syria, but it surely has weakened it. Nonetheless, the Assad-Khamenei assembly serves as a reminder that Iran’s presence and affect in Syria will solely consolidate as Tehran participates within the post-war reconstruction effort, which includes many various fields resembling electrical energy, infrastructure, spiritual facilities and faculties.
Due to this fact, whereas Israel’s marketing campaign has proved profitable over the previous eight years, Israel should additionally pay attention to its limits in countering the multi-dimensional Iranian presence in Syria.
Marta Furlan holds a Ph.D. in worldwide relations from the College of St. Andrews. Her doctoral dissertation studied governance by Salafi-Jihadist armed teams in Iraq, Syria and Yemen from a comparative and multi-dimensional perspective. Her analysis focuses extra broadly on violent non-state actors, insurgent governance, civil wars and political Islam.
This text was initially revealed by the Jerusalem Institute for Technique and Safety.
