The porcupine is a big rodent that defends itself by elevating its needle-like quills when confronted by a pure enemy. For that motive, predators can not simply assault it. As the specter of an armed invasion by China looms bigger, a former senior Taiwanese navy official and US navy consultants are urging the authorities in Taiwan to undertake a “porcupine technique” as quickly as attainable.
“Taiwan doesn’t have the power to go toe-to-toe towards China in a conventional ‘symmetrical conflict’ involving plane carriers towards plane carriers, warplanes towards warplanes, and tanks towards tanks. In any case, there’s a disparity of greater than twenty instances between their protection budgets.”
So warns retired admiral Lee Hsi-ming, who served as chief of the Normal Workers of the Republic of China (Taiwan) from 2017 to 2019. He spoke to a gaggle of reporters, together with a Sankei Shimbun correspondent, in Taipei in November of final 12 months. Throughout his time in workplace, because the navy energy hole with China quickly widened, he sought methods to defend Taiwan by means of “uneven operations.” In actual fact, Taiwan’s “General Protection Idea,” which has this technique at its core, is his brainchild.
Taiwan’s asymmetrical warfare technique is usually known as the “porcupine technique.” A porcupine braces itself by hardening its many quills when confronted with an enormous predator. Equally, this technique is designed to stop occupation by an invading Chinese language drive by inflicting extreme ache (injury) with smaller weapons broadly dispersed all through the island.
An Uneven Warfare Technique
“Taiwan wants an uneven technique to discourage China,” Lee emphasizes. “Which means having numerous small weapons which can be much less prone to long-range assaults, extra cellular, and able to conducting precision strikes.”
In resisting the Russian invasion, the Ukrainian navy has been waging guerrilla warfare with uneven weapons. These embody the “Javelin” transportable anti-tank missile system and the “Stinger” surface-to-air missile. They’ve precipitated the invaders appreciable ache.
Since Lee had touted the significance of uneven warfare even earlier than the Ukraine conflict, he now seems to have been a visionary.
On the similar time, Lee factors out, “Ukraine can be a failure.” Unable to discourage the invasion ordered by Russian president Vladimir Putin, the nation has been decreased to ruins. If Putin had anticipated how properly Ukraine would battle, he doubtless wouldn’t have determined to launch his invasion.
“The most effective plan of action is to discourage the enemy and maintain him from making a transfer,” explains Lee. “To that finish, Taiwan should put together itself as shortly as attainable. We should exhibit that we have now the capability to stop a profitable Chinese language invasion.”
Taiwan Has Solely One Possibility
In response to Lee, there are three typical types of deterrence. “Punitive deterrence” makes the opposite get together conscious that you simply possess a retaliatory functionality, akin to nuclear weapons. Then, there may be “prolonged deterrence,” which the United States offers to its allies. However Taiwan has neither, because it doesn’t possess nuclear weapons or navy ties.
The third type of deterrence is the “technique of ambiguity,” which the US has maintained by not clearly stating what it will do within the occasion of a Taiwan disaster. President Joe Biden has talked about a number of instances that there isn’t any authorized foundation for a US navy intervention. As to what the US would really do within the occasion of a disaster, as Lee says, “All evaluation previous to an precise battle is mere hypothesis.”
Lee argues that the one choice for Taiwan is “deterrence by denial.” In different phrases, a protection able to bodily blocking an assault by the opposite facet. What state of affairs does Lee supply by which Taiwan would have the ability to repel the Folks’s Liberation Army (PLA)?
Predicting China’s Strikes
Right here is an outline primarily based on the interview and Lee’s guide The General Protection Idea: An Uneven Strategy to Taiwan’s Protection revealed in Chinese language final September.
The PLA is more likely to conduct large-scale navy workouts round Taiwan to camouflage the invasion preparations. Then, they’ll all of the sudden shift to assault mode, launching greater than 1,500 medium- and short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. The purpose might be to completely destroy Taiwan’s navy and infrastructure amenities, akin to airfields, ports, radar bases, and energy vegetation.
Having gained air superiority, the Chinese language forces will cross the Taiwan Strait with their fundamental invasion forces carried aboard amphibious assault ships and civilian cargo ships.
Small Arms Can Survive Bombing
The Taiwanese facet will endure devastating blows to its fighter planes and enormous naval vessels from the bombing. Nonetheless, many of the smaller cellular weapon programs that had been deployed in a dispersed method could have survived. These would come with vehicle-mounted anti-ship missiles deployed alongside the coast, small missile-equipped boats, a number of rocket launchers (MLR), and cellular missiles.
As quickly because the PLA touchdown forces enter the waters close to Taiwan, the Taiwan navy will launch centered assaults from the ocean, shore, and air on enemy command ships and amphibious warfare ships.
Small missile boats and coastal anti-ship missiles would be the fundamental actors. The touchdown forces’ defenses might be most weak on the water’s edge. Subsequently, it’s right here that land-based Hellfire missiles and different precision weapons will ship lethal blows to the invaders.
If the invasion drive nonetheless manages to land, the Taiwanese Army will deploy a “protection in depth” technique. This can scale back the opponent’s power by means of a battle of attrition. Moreover, volunteer “homeland protection models” will conduct guerrilla warfare in cooperation with the common military in city and mountainous areas.
Lee’s argument boils right down to this. Conventional giant weapons akin to warships, fighter planes, and tanks would you should definitely endure large injury from missile assaults within the early levels of any invasion.
Moreover, when it comes to conventional weapon programs, China has significantly surpassed Taiwan in each high quality and amount. Subsequently, Taiwan mustn’t pour funds from its restricted protection price range into such high-cost weaponry. As a substitute, it ought to give attention to small uneven weapons that may survive bombing and inflict critical blows on an invading drive.
The Porcupine Technique Meets Resistance
Nonetheless, since Lee’s retirement, the shift to the General Protection Idea he advocates has made no headway.
“My successor is just not very eager on it [the concept],” Lee admits. “We’re again to the unique technique of constructing navy plane and naval vessels and shopping for tanks.”
Taiwan’s Tsai Ing-wen administration and the navy excessive command perceive the significance of uneven weapons. However there may be robust resistance throughout the armed forces to the General Protection Idea, which requires proudly owning a minimal variety of state-of-the-art fighter plane and warships.
State-of-the-art fighter jets and warships can certainly be helpful in coping with “gray-zone conditions” involving intimidation by the Chinese language navy that’s one step in need of using drive.
Such weapon programs additionally serve to lift the morale of the Taiwanese folks. Buying such weapon programs from the US holds political significance as properly.
Taiwan Can not Win Alone
As well as, Taiwan faces excessive hurdles whether it is to win by itself. On January 9, the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research (CSIS), a outstanding US assume tank, launched the outcomes of tabletop simulations of a Chinese language invasion of Taiwan in 2026. Out of 24 simulated assaults, China was the clear victor in two instances.
Within the first occasion, the USA didn’t straight intervene. Within the second occasion, Japan maintained strict neutrality and didn’t enable using American bases in Japan.
Nonetheless, the outcomes additionally confirmed that even when Taiwan had been to battle by itself, it will take China ten weeks to seize the capital of Taipei. Furthermore, the invaders would endure round 70,000 casualties, together with 23,000 deaths.
For the Chinese language authorities, who would need to decrease casualties by combating shortly and decisively, these numbers must be unsettling. If Taiwan had been to proceed to deploy uneven forces, that might make the Chinese language navy’s struggles much more pronounced. The CSIS report famous, “The worth of the ‘porcupine technique’ was demonstrated by the venture’s modeling and wargames.”
Proving significantly efficient within the video games had been the 400 Harpoon missiles that Taiwan has contracted to purchase from the US. Within the simulations, they had been massively efficient in weakening the preliminary Chinese language invasion.
Nonetheless, the identical report judged that the Taiwan navy management has vacillated in adopting the porcupine technique.
The clock is ticking for Taiwan.
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(Learn the article in Japanese at this hyperlink.)
Writer: Yoshiaki Nishimi
