As Russia continues its assault on Ukraine, the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Analysis Lab (DFRLab) is preserving an in depth eye on Russia’s actions throughout the navy, cyber, and data domains. With greater than seven years of expertise monitoring the state of affairs in Ukraine—in addition to Russia’s use of propaganda and disinformation to undermine the United States, NATO, and the European Union—the DFRLab’s international group presents the newest installment of the Russian Struggle Report.
Safety
Russian forces declare management of strategic Soledar
Monitoring narratives
Russian hacker needed by the FBI reportedly wins Wagner hackathon prize
Frenzy befalls French firm accused of feeding Russian forces on New Yr’s Eve
Former head of Russian area company injured in Donetsk, mails shell fragment to French ambassador
Sputnik Lithuania’s former chief editor arrested
Worldwide response
New 12 months brings new navy support for Ukraine
Ukrainian envoy to Georgia discusses deteriorating relations between nations
Russian forces declare management of strategic Soledar
Russia mentioned on January 13 that its forces had taken management of the contested metropolis of Soledar. Latest preventing has been concentrated in Soledar and Bakhmut, two cities within the Donetsk area which can be strategically essential to Ukrainian and Russian forces. Moscow has been attempting to take management of the 2 cities since final summer time. Over the previous week, Russia has elevated its presence on the fronts with the assist of Wagner items. Russia needs management of the Soledar-Bakhmut axis to chop provide traces to the Ukrainian armed forces.
On January 10, Russian sources claimed that Wagner forces had superior into Soledar. Apparently, Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin denied the declare and mentioned the forces had been nonetheless engaged in preventing. Wagner’s presence was established in a camp close to Bakhmut. Troopers from the Wagner Group and different particular forces deployed to Bakhmut after different navy items had failed to interrupt by way of the Ukrainian protection.
On January 11, Ukrainian Deputy Protection Minister Anna Malyar mentioned that heavy preventing was going down in Soledar and that Russian forces had changed the unit working within the metropolis with contemporary troops and elevated the variety of Wagner troopers amongst them. The identical day, Prigozhin claimed that Wagner forces had taken management of Soledar. The Ukrainian protection ministry denied the allegation. On January 12, Ukrainian sources shared unconfirmed footage of troopers driving on the primary street connecting Bakhmut and Soledar with Sloviansk and Kostyantynivka to as proof that the realm remained beneath Ukrainian management.
Elsewhere, on January 11, the Kremlin introduced that Valery Gerasimov would change Sergei Surovikin as commander of Russian forces in Ukraine. The surprising transfer may very well be interpreted as proof of a wrestle for affect in Russian navy circles. Surovikin is taken into account near Prigozhin’s entourage, which has criticized senior officers just lately, together with Gerasimov. Some analysts imagine that the change indicators a attainable navy escalation from Russia.
Moreover, on January 8, Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian offensive the neighborhood of Makiyivka and Stelmakhivka. Additional north of Lysychansk, on January 11, Ukraine additionally repelled an assault on the town of Kreminna. Within the neighboring Kharkiv area, aerial threats stay excessive. On the southern entrance, the town of Kherson and several other cities throughout the Zaporizhzhia area stay targets of Russian assaults.
Lastly, a brand new Maxar satellite tv for pc picture from close by Bakhmut exemplifies the brutality of struggle on the frontline in Donetsk. The picture exhibits 1000’s of craters, indicating the depth of the artillery shelling and change of fireplace between Ukrainian and Russian forces.
—Valentin Châtelet, Analysis Affiliate, Brussels, Belgium
—Ruslan Trad, Resident Fellow for Safety Analysis, Sofia, Bulgaria
Russian hacker needed by the FBI reportedly wins Wagner hackathon prize
In December 2022, the Wagner Group organized a hackathon at its just lately opened headquarters in St. Petersburg, for college kids, builders, analysts, and IT professionals. Wagner introduced the hackathon on social media earlier that month. Organizers created the promotional web site hakaton.wagnercentr.ru, however the web site went offline quickly after. A December 8 archive of the web site, accessed through the Web Archive Wayback Machine, revealed that the target of the hackathon was to “create UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle] positioning programs utilizing video recognition, looking for waypoints by landmarks within the absence of satellite tv for pc navigation programs and exterior management.” Hackathon individuals had been requested to finish the next duties: show the place of the UAV on the map at any time through the flight; direct the UAV to a degree on the map indicated by the operator; present a seek for landmarks, in case of lack of visible reference factors through the flight and returning the UAV to the purpose of departure, in case of a whole lack of communication with the operator.
On December 9, Ukrainian programmers observed that hakaton.wagnercentr.ru was hosted by Amazon Net Providers and requested customers to report the web site to Amazon. Calls to report the channel additionally unfold on Telegram, the place the channel Empire Burns requested subscribers to report the web site and offered directions on how to take action. Empire Burns claims hakaton.wagnercentr.ru first went offline on December 9, which tallies with archival posts. Nonetheless, there is no such thing as a proof that reporting the web site to Amazon resulted in it being taken offline.
Snapshots of hakaton.wagnercentr.ru from the Wayback Machine present the web site was created in a Bitrix24 on-line workspace. A snapshot captured on December 13 exhibits an HTTP 301 standing, which redirects guests to Wagner’s essential web site, wagnercentr.ru. The Wagner web site seems to be geo-restricted for guests exterior Russia.
On December 23, a Wagner Telegram channel posted in regards to the hackathon, claiming greater than 100 folks utilized. In the long run, forty-three folks divided into twelve groups attended. The 2-person group GrAILab Growth received first place, the group SR Information-Iskander received second place, and a group from the corporate Artistrazh obtained third place. Notably, one in all Artistrazh’s co-founders is Igor Turashev, who is needed by the FBI for his connection to pc malware that the bureau claims contaminated “tens of 1000’s of computer systems, in each North America and Europe, leading to monetary losses within the tens of tens of millions of {dollars}.” Artistrazh’s group comprised 4 individuals who received 200,000 Russian rubles (USD $3,000). OSINT investigators at Molfar confirmed that the Igor Turashev who works at Artistrazh is identical one needed by the FBI.
Wagner mentioned that one of many key targets of the hackathon was the event of IT initiatives to guard the pursuits of the Russian military, including that the information gained through the hackathon may already be utilized to clear mines. Wagner mentioned it had additionally invited some individuals to collaborate additional. The Wagner Heart opened in St. Petersburg in early November 2022; the middle’s mission is “to offer a snug atmosphere for producing new concepts so as to enhance Russia’s protection functionality, together with info.”
– Givi Gigitashvili, DFRLab Analysis Affiliate, Warsaw, Poland
Frenzy befalls French firm accused of feeding Russian forces on New Yr’s Eve
A VKontakte publish displaying baskets of canned items produced by the French firm Bonduelle being distributed to Russian troopers on New Yr’s Eve has sparked a media frenzy in France. The publish alleges that Bonduelle despatched Russian troopers a congratulatory bundle, telling them to “come again with a win.” The publish quotes Ekaterina Eliseeva, the top of Bonduelle’s EurAsia markets. In keeping with a 2019 Forbes article, Eliseeva studied interpretation at an Russian state safety academy.
Bonduelle has issued a number of statements denying the social media publish and calling it faux. Nonetheless, Bonduelle does keep operations in Russia “to make sure that the inhabitants has entry to important foodstuff.”
French broadcaster TV 5 Monde found that Bonduelle’s Russia division participated in a non-profit effort referred to as Basket of Kindness, sponsored by the Fund of Presidential Grants of Russia. Meals and provides had been gathered by meals banks to be delivered to weak segments of the inhabitants. Nonetheless, through the assortment drive, Dmitry Zharikov, governor of the Russian metropolis of Podolsk, posted on Telegram that the collections would additionally serve navy households.
The story was shared on nationwide tv in France and throughout a number of worldwide retailers. The Ukrainian embassy in France criticized Bonduelle for persevering with to function in Russia, claiming it was “making earnings in a terrorist nation which kills Ukrainians.”
—Valentin Châtelet, Analysis Affiliate, Brussels, Belgium
Former head of Russian area company injured in Donetsk, mails shell fragment to French ambassador
Dmitry Rogozin, former head of the Russian area company Roscosmos, mentioned he was wounded in Ukrainian shelling on December 21, 2022, on the Shesh resort in Donetsk whereas “celebrating his birthday.” In response, Rogozin despatched a letter to Pierre Lévy, the French ambassador to Russia, with a fraction of the shell.
Within the letter, Rogozin accused the French authorities of “betraying [Charles] De Gaulle’s trigger and turning into a bloodthirsty state in Europe.” The shell fragment was extracted from Rogozin’s backbone throughout surgical procedure and allegedly got here from a French CAESAR howitzer. Rogozin requested the fragment be despatched to French President Emmanuel Macron. His message was relayed by Russian information companies, and on Telegram by pro-Russian and French-speaking conspiracy channels.
On the time of the assault, Rogozin was accompanied by two members of his voluntary unit, “Tsar’s wolves,” who had been killed within the assault, in keeping with reporting from RT, RIA Novosti, and others.
– Valentin Châtelet, Analysis Affiliate, Brussels, Belgium
Sputnik Lithuania’s former chief editor arrested
On January 6, Marat Kasem, the previous chief editor of Sputnik Lithuania, was arrested in Riga, Latvia, on suspicion of “offering financial assets” to a Kremlin propaganda useful resource beneath EU sanctions.
The next day, pro-Kremlin journalists held a small demonstration in assist of Kasem in entrance of the Latvian embassy in Moscow. Russian journalist Dmitry Kiselyov and politician Maria Butina attended the occasion.
The demonstration was filmed by Sputnik and amplified with the Russian hashtag #свободуМаратуКасему (#freedomForMaratKasem) on Telegram channels working within the Baltic states, together with the pro-Russian BALTNEWS, Своих не бросаем! | Свободная Балтика!, and on Butina’s private channel. The information of Kasem’s arrest additionally reached the Russian Duma’s Telegram channel, which re-shared Butina’s publish.
– Valentin Châtelet, Analysis Affiliate, Brussels, Belgium
New 12 months brings new navy support for Ukraine
Worldwide efforts in assist of Ukraine are persevering with in full pressure in 2023. On January 4, Norway introduced it had despatched Ukraine one other 10,000 155mm artillery shells. These shells can be utilized in a number of varieties of artillery items, together with the M109 self-propelled howitzer. On January 5, Germany confirmed it could present Ukraine with Marder preventing automobiles and a Patriot anti-aircraft missile battery. German information outlet Spiegel additionally reported that talks are underway to provide Ukraine with extra Gepard anti-aircraft weapons and ammunition.
As well as, UK International Secretary James Cleverly mentioned the British authorities would provide Ukraine with navy gear able to delivering a “decisive” strike from a distance. On the finish of 2022, UK Protection Secretary Ben Wallace mentioned the opportunity of transferring Storm Shadow cruise missiles, with a spread of as much as 250 kilometers. Finland additionally reported that it’s getting ready its twelfth bundle of navy help to Ukraine.
US support to Ukraine can be being reaffirmed with a $2.85 billion bundle on prime of weapon deliveries. Moreover, the US plans to ship fourteen automobiles outfitted with anti-drone programs as a part of its safety help bundle. The corporate L3Harris is a part of the Pentagon’s contract to develop anti-drone kits. This gear would assist defend Ukrainian civil infrastructure, which has been a frequent Russian goal since October 2022.
On January 6, French President Emmanuel Macron introduced that France would provide Ukraine with items of the sunshine AMX-10RC armored reconnaissance car. These automobiles had been produced in 1970 and have been utilized in Afghanistan, the Gulf Struggle, Mali, Kosovo, and Ivory Coast. The French protection ministry additionally introduced that the nation was to ship twenty items of ACMAT Bastion armored personnel carriers.
On January 11, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Presidents Andrzej Duda of Poland and Gitanas Nauseda of Lithuania in Lviv. Throughout the go to, Duda introduced that Poland would ship fourteen items of the much-awaited German Leopard fight tanks, and Nauseda introduced that his nation would supply Ukraine with Zenit anti-aircraft programs.
In the meantime, the most important producer of containers for the transport of liquified pure gasoline has ceased operations in Russia. French engineering group Gaztransport & Technigaz (GTT) mentioned it ended operations in Russia after reviewing the newest European sanctions bundle, which included a ban on engineering providers for Russian companies. The group mentioned its contract with Russian shipbuilding firm Zvezda to provide fifteen icebreakers to move liquefied pure gasoline was suspended efficient January 8.
—Valentin Châtelet, Analysis Affiliate, Brussels, Belgium
—Ruslan Trad, Resident Fellow for Safety Analysis, Sofia, Bulgaria
Ukrainian envoy to Georgia discusses deteriorating relations between nations
On January 9, Andrii Kasianov, the Ukrainian Chargé d’Affaires in Georgia, revealed an article discussing the deteriorating relationship between the 2 nations. The article acknowledged that the highest points affecting relations had been navy support to Ukraine, bilateral sanctions in opposition to Russia, visa insurance policies for fleeing Russians, and the authorized rights of Mikheil Saakashvili, the imprisoned third president of Georgia, who can be a Ukrainian citizen.
Kasianov famous that Tbilisi declined Kyiv’s request for navy assist, particularly for BUK missile programs, which got to Georgia by Ukraine throughout Russia’s 2008 invasion. The diplomat mentioned that the weapons request additionally included Javelin anti-tank programs equipped to Georgia by the USA.
“Even if the Georgian authorities categorically refused to offer navy support, Ukraine opposes using this subject in inside political disputes and rejects any accusations of makes an attempt to attract Georgia right into a struggle with the Russian Federation,” Kasianov mentioned.
Because the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Georgian Dream-led authorities has accused Ukraine, the US, and the EU of making an attempt to pull Georgia right into a struggle with Russia.
—Eto Buziashvili, Analysis Affiliate, Tbilisi, Georgia
