October 10, 9:30 PM ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Russian forces carried out an enormous missile strike assault in opposition to over 20 cities, together with Kyiv, on October 10. The Ukrainian Basic Employees reported that Russian forces launched over 84 cruise missiles and 24 drone assaults, 13 of which had been carried out with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.[i] Ukrainian air protection shot down 43 cruise missiles, 10 Shahed-136 drones, and three unspecified drones. Russian forces launched missiles from 10 strategic bombers working within the Caspian Sea and from Nizhny Novgorod, Iskander short-range ballistic missile programs, and 6 missile carriers within the Black Sea.[ii] Russian forces launched the Shahed-136 drones from Crimea and Belarus.[iii] Ukrainian media reported that Russian missile strikes hit 70 targets, together with 29 vital infrastructure amenities, 4 high-rise buildings, 35 residential buildings, and a college.[iv]
Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed to have ordered the missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in retaliation for a “terrorist act” on the Kerch Strait Bridge, probably partly to curry favor with the Russian pro-war nationalist camp that has been demanding such retaliation.[v] Putin accused Ukraine throughout his assembly with the Russian Safety Council of conducting terrorist acts in opposition to Russian civilian and demanding infrastructure, particularly in opposition to the Kerch Strait Bridge, the Kursk Nuclear Energy Plant (NPP), and segments of the Turkish Stream gasoline transmission system.[vi] Ukrainian officers haven’t formally taken accountability for the explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge.[vii] The Ukrainian Major Army Intelligence Directorate (GUR) additionally reported that Putin has been planning this assault previous to the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion, and if true, might point out that Putin deliberate this assault for the deflection of the Kharkiv-Izyum-Lyman failures.[viii]
Russian Protection Minister Sergey Shoigu additionally attended the assembly regardless of speculations that Putin would pressure him to resign, which can recommend that Putin settled on responding to solely one of many pro-war group’s calls for at the moment.
Putin emphasised that he would conduct proportional escalation in any future retaliatory actions. He acknowledged that if Ukraine continues to hold out “terrorist assaults in opposition to [Russian] territory, then Russian responses will probably be harsh, and their scale will correspond to the extent of the menace to the Russian Federation.” This declaration of proportionality means that Putin intends to proceed climbing the escalation ladder rung by rung and cautiously quite than leaping to extra dramatic measures akin to the usage of nuclear weapons. Putin may additionally imply to message the Russian pro-war camp that they need to handle their expectations of an ongoing day by day bombardment of Ukraine just like the one carried out in the present day.[ix] Russian milbloggers, for his or her half, have overwhelmingly welcomed the strikes and amplified Deputy Chairman of the Russian Safety Council Dmitry Medvedev’s assertion that extra assaults in opposition to Ukraine will observe quickly.[x] Ukrainian and Western intelligence have beforehand reported that Russia has spent a good portion of its high-precision missiles, and Putin probably is aware of higher than Medvedev or the milbloggers that he can not maintain assaults of this depth for very lengthy.[xi]
The October 10 Russian assaults wasted a few of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons in opposition to civilian targets, versus militarily important targets. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed that Russian forces efficiently accomplished the mission of hanging Ukrainian navy command facilities, sign infrastructure, and power programs in Ukraine.[xii] Social media exhibits that Russians as an alternative hit a youngsters’s playground, a park, a German consulate, and a enterprise heart amongst different non-military targets.[xiii] Ukrainian air defenses additionally shot down half of the Russian drones and cruise missiles. Russian assaults on the Ukrainian power grid is not going to probably break Ukraine’s will to combat, however Russia’s use of its restricted provide of precision weapons on this function could deprive Putin of choices to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives in Kherson and Luhansk Oblasts.
Russian and Belarusian forces stay unlikely to assault Ukraine from the north regardless of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s October 10 announcement that Belarus and Russia agreed to deploy the Union State’s Regional Grouping of Forces (RGV) —a strategic formation of Russian and Belarusian items tasked with defending the Union State. Lukashenko acknowledged that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed on October 7 on an unspecified “deployment” of the Russian-Belarusian RGV in “reference to the escalation on the western borders of the Union State” however didn’t clearly outline the deployment’s parameters.[xiv] Lukashenko acknowledged that over a thousand Russian personnel will deploy to Belarus and {that a} Russian-Belarusian group started forming on October 8.[xv] The Russian element of any RGV formations in Belarus will probably be comprised of low-readiness mobilized males or conscripts who probably is not going to pose a big typical navy menace to Ukraine.
The Russian element of the RGV is comprised of parts of the first Guard Tank Army, twentieth Mixed Arms Army, and airborne items– formations which have all sustained heavy fight losses in Ukraine and have a severely diminished fight capability.[xvi] A Kyiv Put up reporter claimed that Russian troopers are deploying to Belarus en masse by way of cattle railcars with out mechanized tools on October 10—a characterization per ISW’s evaluation.[xvii] ISW has beforehand assessed that Ukrainian stories from late September of Belarus getting ready to simply accept 20,000 mobilized Russian males point out that Russia hopes to make use of Belarusian navy amenities and infrastructure to carry and probably practice newly mobilized Russian forces, however that it stays exceedingly unlikely that these are main indicators of imminent Belarusian involvement in Ukraine on Russia’s behalf.[xviii] The Kremlin could search to make use of extra Russian forces in Belarus to repair Ukrainian forces close to Kyiv and stop their redeployment elsewhere to take part in counter-offensives. ISW has beforehand assessed that Lukashenko can not afford the home ramifications of Belarusian involvement in Ukraine.[xix] ISW additionally assesses that Russia doesn’t have the power to type a floor strike pressure from scratch or from current items in Belarus rapidly. The Ukrainian Basic Employees reported that it has not noticed indicators of Russian forces forming offensive teams in Belarus and explicitly acknowledged “there is no such thing as a menace of an assault from the territory of the Republic of Belarus as of October 10.”[xx]
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces carried out large, coordinated missile strikes on over 20 Ukrainian cities.
- President Vladimir Putin claimed that the coordinated missile strikes had been in retaliation for the explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge, probably partly to curry favor with “pro-war” factions.
- Russian and Belarusian floor forces stay unlikely to assault Ukraine from Belarusian territory to the north.
- Ukrainian forces have probably liberated over 200 sq. kilometers of territory in western Luhansk Oblast as of October 10.
- Russian forces continued unsuccessful makes an attempt to regain not too long ago misplaced territory in northwest Kherson Oblast whereas reinforcing close by positions with broken and swiftly mobilized items.
- Russian forces continued floor assaults in Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian and occupation administration officers are setting circumstances to maneuver as much as 40,000 residents out of Kherson Oblast to Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian Federation.
- Russian forces can not provide mobilized forces, probably on account of years of provide theft by contract troopers and commanders.
We don’t report intimately on Russian conflict crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t instantly have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to judge and report on the consequences of those legal actions on the Ukrainian navy and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity although we don’t describe them in these stories.
- Ukrainian Counter-offensives—Southern and Jap Ukraine
- Russian Major Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and two supporting efforts)
- Russian Subordinate Major Effort—Seize the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort—Southern Axis
- Russian Mobilization and Power Technology Efforts
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Ukrainian Counter-offensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)
Jap Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)
Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Luhansk Oblast east of the Oskil River within the course of Svatove and Kreminna on October 9 and 10 and have probably liberated over 200 sq. kilometers of territory in western Luhansk Oblast as of October 10.[xxi] Ukrainian forces captured Stel’makhivka (17 kilometers west of Svatove) on October 9, and Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated a number of settlements on the Oskil River-Kreminna Line together with Novolyubivka, Nevske, Hrekivka, Novoiehorivka, Nadiia, and Andriivka.[xxii] Geolocated fight footage posted on October 9 exhibits Ukrainian forces destroying a Russian tank in Novoselivske 15 km northwest of Svatove on the Svatove–Kupyansk freeway.[xxiii] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) reported that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully tried to ford the Zherebets River close to Makiivka and Raihorodka (roughly 12 km southwest of Svatove) on October 10. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces counterattacked and recaptured Terny on October 10, although ISW can not confirm this declare.[xxiv] ISW’s evaluation of Ukrainian forces’ entrance line locations Ukrainian forces inside 20 km of Svatove’s western facet.
Russian forces are probably getting ready defenses in Starobilsk and Svatove in response to Ukraine’s northern counter-offensive. A Russian milblogger reported that the Wagner Group deployed roughly 1,000 personnel to the Russian pressure grouping in Lysychansk to strengthen the Luhansk sector and set up a defensive position that can run from Lysychansk alongside the Seversky Donets River again to Russian’s internationally acknowledged borders on October 9.[xxv] Social media video reportedly exhibits Russian forces in Starobilsk forcing college students to dig trenches on October 9.[xxvi] Haidai reported that Russian forces blew up railway and bridge crossings close to Svatove, are laying mines, and continued to organize defenses within the space on October 10.[xxvii]
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Russian forces continued their unsuccessful makes an attempt to regain misplaced positions in northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast on October 9 and October 10. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command acknowledged that Russian forces as much as the dimensions of a motorized rifle platoon unsuccessfully tried to assault Ukrainian positions within the course of Davydiv Brid on the jap financial institution of the Inhulets River.[xxviii] Ukrainian navy officers famous that Russian forces targeted most of their airstrikes on Davydiv Brid and struck Ukrainian positions with kamikaze drones in Dudchany (on the western financial institution of Dnipro River) and different liberated settlements.[xxix] Russian sources claimed that Davydiv Brid “is a gray zone” and acknowledged that Russian forces are clearing the forest belt south of Davydiv Brid, nevertheless.[xxx] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) additionally claimed repelling Ukrainian counter-offensives on settlements within the neighborhood of Davydiv Brid.[xxxi] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces tried to launch a counterattack on Ternovi Pody, roughly 33km northwest of Kherson Metropolis.[xxxii]
Russian forces are sustaining their efforts to strengthen positions with swiftly mobilized and broken items in northern Kherson Oblast. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces transferred an extra 200 servicemen and as much as 300 items of navy tools to strengthen areas of Ukrainian counter-offensives, however these forces are probably not enough for Russian forces to regain misplaced positions in northern Kherson Oblast.[xxxiii] Russian sources additionally reported that mobilized males from Volgograd Oblast and the Republic of Kalmykia arrived in Kherson Oblast.[xxxiv] The Ukrainian Basic Employees claimed {that a} battalion tactical group (BTG) of the one hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Division that operates within the Kherson course had over 520 servicemen killed in motion, which might be greater than half of the nominal complement of personnel in a motorized rifle BTG.[xxxv] The report famous that the BTG largely consists of mobilized males, which is probably going contemplating that ISW has beforehand reported that one hundred and fiftieth Motorized Rifle Division had suffered severe losses throughout the Battle of Mariupol.[xxxvi] The Ukrainian Basic Employees reported that the Donetsk Folks’s Republic‘s (DNR) 127th Rifle Regiment of the first Army Corps has suffered vital losses after serving on the primary line of fight in Kherson and Mykolaiv Oblasts, and that their households complained to Russian regulation enforcement about failures by the Russian navy command to assist them and about their poor dwelling circumstances.[xxxvii] The Ukrainian Basic Employees famous that an unspecified commander of the Russian forty ninth Mixed Arms Army fashioned the 127th Rifle Regiment with out obligatory preparation or correct tools. ISW beforehand reported that this unit consists of forcefully mobilized males and has beforehand refused to combat on account of lack of such fundamental provides as water in early September.[xxxviii]
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct an interdiction marketing campaign in Kherson Oblast on October 9 and October 10. Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces destroyed three ammunition warehouses in Kherson and Beryslav Raions, and one management level in Kakhovka Raion. Odesa Oblast Army Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk additionally insinuated that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian warehouse with navy tools in Hola Prystan (about 14km southwest of Kherson Metropolis), and social media footage confirmed hearth and smoke within the settlement on October 9.[xxxix]
Russian Major Effort—Jap Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Major Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the whole thing of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to conduct floor assaults in Donetsk Oblast on October 9 and 10. The Ukrainian Basic Employees reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults close to Bakhmut; north of Bakhmut close to Bakhmutske and Soledar; and south of Bakhmut close to Mayorsk, Ozaryanivka, Ivanhrad, and Niu York on October 9 and 10.[xl] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces absolutely occupied and cleared Zaitseve on October 9.[xli] A Russian milblogger additionally claimed that Russian forces entered the southern outskirts of Opytne and Ivanhrad on October 10, though ISW can not independently confirm his claims.[xlii] Russian sources reported that combating in and round Bakhmut is extra intense than traditional and that Ukrainian artillery assaults intensified to a degree unseen since summer time 2022.[xliii] The Ukrainian Basic Employees reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian floor assaults north of Avdiivka close to Kamianka, and south of Avdiivka close to Pervomaiske, Nevelske, Pobieda, and Opytne on October 9 and 10.[xliv] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces launched assaults close to Pisky and Marinka on October 9 and 10.[xlv] The Russian Ministry of Protection claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully tried to assault Russian positions close to Oktyabirske, Neskuchene, and Yehorivka on October 9.[xlvi] Head of the Donetsk Folks’s Republic Denis Pushilin acknowledged on October 10 that Russian forces within the Vuhledar and Marinka instructions are making progress, however not as rapidly as commanders had hoped.[xlvii] Russian forces continued routine oblique hearth alongside the road of contact in Donetsk Oblast on October 9 and 10.[xlviii]
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Keep frontline positions and safe rear areas in opposition to Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv Oblasts on October 9 and 10.[xlix] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhia Metropolis, Mykolaiv Metropolis, Ochakiv, and Nikopol.[l] Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces carried out cruise missile strikes on Zaporizhzhia Metropolis on October 9, killing a minimum of 12 civilians.[li]
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian positions and destroy Russian drones in southern Ukraine on October 9 and 10. Ukrainian sources reported that Ukrainian air protection programs shot down Russian UAVs, together with Shahed-136s, in Mykolaiv and Odesa Oblasts on October 9 and 10.[lii] Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions close to Tokmak on October 8, 9 and 10, reportedly destroying a Russian manpower focus, a railway connection, and infrastructure amenities.[liii] The Mayor of Melitopol Ivan Fedorov reported on October 10 that Russian forces are more and more transporting navy tools by way of Zaporizhia Oblast following the October 8 explosion on the Kerch Strait Bridge.[liv] Russian columns of navy tools reportedly transfer from Mariupol by way of Berdyansk to Melitopol, a route extra weak to Ukrainian strikes than the availability line throughout the Kerch Strait Bridge.[lv]
Mobilization and Power Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Broaden fight energy with out conducting normal mobilization)
Mobilization in Russia continues to face bureaucratic and logistical challenges. Russian courtroom information recommend that years of corruption and petty theft of navy provides amongst Russian navy personnel has rendered the Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) unable to offer mobilized troops fundamental requirements akin to protecting tools, weapons, medical, and private provides.[lvi] The BBC reported on October 10 that Russian navy garrisons have sentenced a minimum of 558 males for clothes theft, and have made 12,000 fraud convictions and over 700 embezzlement convictions over the previous eight years.[lvii] Stolen tools contains thousands and thousands of rubles price of products starting from bullet-proof vests, boots, and diesel gas to cleaning soap, bathroom paper, and socks.[lviii] The information from these convictions probably represents a small subset of corruption within the Russian navy. The governor of the Russian Mari El Republic acknowledged the Russian MoD’s provide issues impacting mobilized troops, promised to repair the issues, and attributed the challenges to ignorance of the mobilized males’s wants on October 9.[lix]
The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) continues to rely upon proxy forces, mobilized, and contract troopers discovering methods to offer their very own tools. Russian authorities opened a mobilized-soldier assist heart gathering “humanitarian help” at Novosibirsk State College on October 9.[lx] One Russian milblogger posted a hyperlink to crowdfunding for tools for the Russian proxy 208th Cossack Regiment.[lxi] A separate milblogger posted a crowdfunding hyperlink for Russian, Luhansk Folks’s Republic, and Donetsk Folks’s Republic forces on October 9.[lxii] Two different milbloggers posted images and movies of thermal sights and drones bought with crowdfunding from channel subscribers on October 9.[lxiii]
Russian bodily provide shortages lengthen past equipping Russian troopers. The Ukrainian Basic Employees reported on October 9 that Russian management is negotiating with different international locations for the procurement of additional artillery shells, mortar shells, and parts for rocket launcher programs. The Ukrainian Basic Employees reported Belarusian navy warehouses and arsenals stay one other supply for resupply and that Belarusian authorities plan to ship 13 trains with ammunition and different unspecified tools from Belarus to Russia.[lxiv]
Russian residents proceed resisting mobilization in Russia. An unknown particular person carried out an arson assault in opposition to a navy recruitment workplace in Arkhangelskoe, Bashkortostan on October 9.[lxv] One Russian milblogger posted on October 9 that North Ossetia has not fulfilled its quota for partial mobilization and has solely mobilized 40% of the area’s goal.[lxvi] The milblogger acknowledged that the mobilization delinquency state of affairs is worst in Vladikavkaz, whose mayor holidays in Turkey.[lxvii] A Russian supply reported that occupation Crimean State Council Chairman Vladimir Konstantinov introduced plans to formally suggest a federal regulation banning males on the navy registration listing from fleeing Russia to keep away from mobilization.[lxviii] Konstantinov advised that Russia label those that have already fled as “beneath international affect” and stop these convicted of discrediting the Russian military or evading service from voting or holding workplace for as much as 10 years after the conviction’s expungement.[lxix]
Russian-backed occupation authorities reportedly established websites in Severodonetsk to mobilize Ukrainians on October 9. The Ukrainian Resistance Middle reported on October 9 that Russian forces are prioritizing mobilizing Ukrainians with expertise but additionally search to fill personnel shortages with untrained and improperly outfitted conscripts.[lxx]
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied and annexed areas; forcibly combine Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, financial, navy, and governance programs)
Russian and occupation administration officers continued to conduct filtration actions within the Russian-occupied territories on October 9 and 10. The Head of the Kherson Oblast occupation administration Vladimir Saldo introduced that governors in Russian-occupied Crimea, Kransodar Krai, Stavropol Krai, and Rostov Oblast have agreed to take as much as 10,000 folks from Kherson Oblast.[lxxi] Saldo has framed the motion of Kherson Oblast residents as a “trip” program for kids and their dad and mom.[lxxii] Odesa Oblast Army Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk claimed that Russian and occupation administration officers could not plan to return the youngsters and their dad and mom to Kherson Oblast.[lxxiii] The Mayor of Melitopol, Ivan Fedorov, reported that occupation administration officers in Melitopol are transporting households from town to the Russian Federation as nicely.[lxxiv] Fedorov additionally reported that Russian and occupation administration officers proceed to stop residents from crossing the Vasylivka checkpoint into Ukrainian-held Zaporizhia Oblast and that the queue there may be over 6,000 folks lengthy as of October 8.[lxxv]
Russian and occupation administration officers have failed to revive heating infrastructure forward of the heating season in Russian-occupied territories as of October 10. The Zaporizhia Oblast Army Administration reported on October 10 that 269 settlements in Russian-occupied Zaporizhia and Donetsk Oblasts face gasoline provide disruptions.[lxxvi] The Ukrainian Resistance Middle reported that Russian and occupation administration officers in Zaporizhia Oblast have left Melitopol and Berdyansk fully with out warmth regardless of guarantees to restore broken pipelines.[lxxvii] Haidai reported on October 9 that Russian and occupation administration officers are involved concerning the winter in Lysychansk, Rubizhne, and Severodonetsk, the place many residents nonetheless don’t have entry to warmth.[lxxviii] Haidai and the pinnacle of the Kharkiv Oblast Army administration, Oleg Synehubov, have warned their respective residents to go away settlements in each occupied and not too long ago de-occupied territories that lack heating as it should probably be months earlier than Ukrainian or occupation authorities can restore heating.[lxxix]
Observe: ISW doesn’t obtain any categorized materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly obtainable data, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially obtainable satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial knowledge as the premise for these stories. References to all sources used are professional
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