June 24, 7:15 pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date each day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Ukrainian officers ordered a managed withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk on June 24. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai introduced that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from “damaged positions” in Severodonetsk to stop additional personnel losses and preserve a stronger protection elsewhere.[i] Severodonetsk Regional Navy Administration Head Roman Vlasenko said that a number of Ukrainian models stay in Severodonetsk as of June 24, however Ukrainian forces will full the total withdrawal in “just a few days.”[ii] An unnamed Pentagon official famous that Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will enable Ukrainian troops to safe higher defensive positions and additional put on down Russian manpower and tools.[iii] The Pentagon official famous that Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already present indicators of “put on and tear” and “debilitating morale,” which is able to solely additional sluggish Russian offensive operations in Donbas. Russian forces have been making an attempt to grab Severodonetsk since a minimum of March 13, exhausting their forces and tools over three months.[iv]
Ukrainian forces will doubtless preserve their defenses round Lysychansk and proceed to exhaust Russian troops after the autumn of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian forces will occupy larger floor in Lysychansk, which can enable them to repel Russian assaults for a while if the Russians are unable to encircle or isolate them. Russian forces in Severodonetsk will even want to finish river crossings from the east, which would require further effort and time. Luhansk Individuals’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that Russian forces will utterly encircle Lysychansk within the subsequent two or three days after absolutely interdicting Ukrainian floor traces of communications (GLOCs).[v] Russian forces have efficiently secured entry to Ukrainian GLOCs alongside the Hirske-Lysychansk freeway by breaking by Hirske on June 24, however Russian forces might want to reduce Ukrainian logistics routes from Bakhmut and Siversk to totally isolate Lysychansk. Russian forces are more likely to face challenges finishing a bigger encirclement round Lysychansk as a result of a failed river crossing in Bilohorivka, northwest of Lysychansk, in early Might. Ukrainian forces will doubtless conduct a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk if Russian forces threaten Ukrainian strongholds within the space.
Ukrainian intelligence warned that Russian forces will perform false-flag assaults in Belarus to attract Belarusian forces into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Navy Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian sabotage teams and mercenaries arrived in Mozyr, Belarus, to detonate condominium buildings and civilian infrastructure across the metropolis.[vi] The GUR famous that Russian saboteurs will observe a sample much like condominium bombings in Chechnya within the early 2000s. Ukrainian officers have beforehand reported on potential false-flag assaults in Belarus all through the previous 4 months.
Unidentified assailants resumed assaults towards Russian navy recruitment facilities on June 24, indicating intensifying discontent with covert mobilization. Russian outlet Baza reported two incidents the place unknown attackers threw Molotov Cocktails at navy recruitment workplaces in Belgorod Metropolis and Perm on June 24.[vii] Baza additionally reported that Belgorod Oblast Police began a seek for 4 contract servicemen—one sergeant and three peculiar troopers–who’ve abandoned their navy unit stationed in Belgorod Oblast.[viii]
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to drive north to Lysychansk and have doubtless encircled Ukrainian troops in Hirske-Zolote.
- Ukrainian officers introduced that Ukrainian forces are preventing their final battles within the industrial zone of Severodonetsk earlier than withdrawing from town.
- Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive operations west of Izyum and north of Slovyansk. Russian forces will doubtless prioritize encircling Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk and interdicting remaining GLOCs northwest of town earlier than resuming a full-scale offensive operation on Slovyansk.
- Ukrainian forces are persevering with to launch counteroffensive operations alongside the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are threatening Russian forces in Kherson Metropolis.
- Ukrainian partisans continued to assault Russian collaborators in Kherson Metropolis.
We don’t report intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t immediately have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to judge and report on the consequences of those felony actions on the Ukrainian navy and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity although we don’t describe them in these experiences.
- Essential Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Essential Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops within the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis;
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Essential Effort—Jap Ukraine
Subordinate Essential Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Jap Ukraine and seize the whole thing of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to advance towards Lysychansk from the south and launched assaults on Severodonetsk. Russian forces continued to push on Lysychansk from Vovchoyarivka and Bila Hora in its southern outskirts on June 24.[ix] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai said that Ukrainian forces are preventing their final battles within the metropolis’s industrial zone earlier than their full withdrawal.[x] Severodonetsk Regional State Administration Head Roman Vlasenko said that Russian forces are launching assaults on settlements simply southeast of Severodonetsk.[xi] Ukrainian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces intensified airstrikes all through the Luhansk Oblast frontline and deployed S-300 anti-aircraft missiles programs to cowl their air offensive group.[xii] Fight footage signifies that Russian forces are utilizing air assaults to destroy the remaining bridges and roads to Lysychansk.[xiii] Russia’s Protection Ministry additionally posted footage of Russian Central Navy District Commander Alexander Lapin in occupied Stepove (simply west of Luhansk Metropolis) on June 23.[xiv] Lapin’s arrival in Luhansk might point out that the Kremlin is getting ready to declare victory in Severodonetsk within the coming days.
Russian forces doubtless encircled some Ukrainian forces in Zolote and continued to assault Ukrainian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) alongside the T1303 Bakhmut-Lysychansk freeway. Hirske District Head Oleksiy Babchenko reported that Russian forces occupied all settlements in Hirske district following a breakthrough from the east.[xv] Hirske is located simply northeast of Ukrainian fortifications in Zolote, and Russian management of the settlement signifies that Russian forces have efficiently bypassed and encircled Ukrainian positions. Babchenko stated that Ukrainian officers ordered a withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Zolote three to 4 days in the past. The Russian Protection Ministry claimed that Russian forces encircled 1,800 Ukrainian servicemen in Zolote-Hirske, however ISW is unable to confirm the variety of Ukrainian servicemen remaining within the settlement.[xvi] Ukrainian forces additionally misplaced entry to the T1303 Hirske-Lysychansk freeway and adjoining roads, with the final humanitarian cargo arriving in Hirske on June 17.[xvii] Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces are preventing in Mykolaivka and Berestove to interdict the adjoining T1303.[xviii]
Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations north of Slovyansk and west of Izyum on June 24. The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Ukrainian forces repulsed Russian assaults on Borhorodychne and Dolyna, on the E40 freeway to Slovyansk.[xix] Ukrainian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk famous that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Kurulka and Virnopillya in an effort to set situations for a renewed offensive operation on Barvinkove, roughly 35 km southwest of Izyum.[xx] Motuzyanyk added that Russian forces are accumulating further reserves and deployed a battery of Uragan MLRS to Novoselivka, a settlement northwest of Lyman, to renew offensives on Slovyansk.[xxi]
Russian forces will doubtless prioritize finishing the operational encirclement of Lysychansk from Lyman sooner or later, moderately than conducting a floor assault on Slovyansk. Russian forces proceed to shell Siversk (roughly 28 km northwest of Lysychansk), doubtless in an effort to interdict the remaining Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.[xxii] Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok famous that Russian forces will try to seize Lysychansk earlier than mid-July forward of the wet season, which might complicate Russian advances as a result of muddy roads.[xxiii] Kotyenok added that Russian forces do not need sufficient manpower to encircle closely fortified Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, or advance north of Avdiivka. Russian forces will want restoration time to provoke advances on Slovyansk, following the grinding marketing campaign to seize Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Withdraw forces to the north and defend floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces centered on stopping Ukrainian advances towards the worldwide border and from threatening Russian forces working within the Izyum-Slovyansk space.[xxiv] Russian forces continued heavy shelling of settlements northeast and southeast of Kharkiv Metropolis and launched two Iskander ballistic missiles on the metropolis on June 24.[xxv] The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Russian forces intensified using sabotage and reconnaissance teams in settlements and are trying to renew offensive operations to enhance tactical positions past the worldwide border.[xxvi] Ukrainian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk famous that Russian forces started accumulating personnel and engineering tools in Velykyi Burlyk, a settlement on Russian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, doubtless in a seamless effort to take care of Russian logistics routes to Izyum and Luhansk Oblast.[xxvii]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts towards Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces didn’t conduct offensive operations in Kherson Oblast amidst Ukrainian counteroffensives alongside the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders on June 24. The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that half of the Russian forces retreated to Olhine, simply south of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border, following a profitable Ukrainian counteroffensive within the space.[xxviii] Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes and fireplace artillery at Ukrainian positions on the western financial institution of the Inhulets River.[xxix] Ukrainian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk additionally famous that Russian forces carried out artillery strikes on settlements simply 20 km northwest of Kherson Metropolis in an effort to suppress Ukrainian counteroffensives towards town.[xxx] Russian retailers reported that Head of the Russian Nationwide Guard (Rosguardia) Viktor Zolotov arrived in an unspecified Kherson Oblast settlement on June 24 to distribute awards to Russian servicemen, though the total intentions of his go to stay unclear.[xxxi]
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set situations for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)
Ukrainian partisans continued to focus on Russian collaborators in Kherson Metropolis and are complicating Russian efforts to determine native occupation administrations. Ukrainian and Russian sources confirmed that Ukrainian partisans detonated an improvised explosive machine and killed the occupation director of youth coverage administration Dmytro Savluchenko in Kherson Metropolis on June 24.[xxxii] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command famous that Kherson Oblast residents additionally refuse to collaborate with Russian occupation authorities and are slowing down Russian preparations for a referendum on September 11.[xxxiii] Ukrainian partisan exercise might discourage different Russian collaborators from accepting native administration positions and additional pressure Russian occupation personnel shortages.
Ukrainian civilians proceed to flee Russian occupied settlements in southern Ukraine. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov estimated that over 35,000 Melitopol residents left town final month.[xxxiv] ISW beforehand reported that Enerhodar residents are additionally leaving town to keep away from collaborating with Russian officers.[xxxv]
[i] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3723; https://suspilne dot media/253500-zsu-dovedetsa-vijti-z-severodonecka-na-bils-ukripleni-pozicii-gajdaj/; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3727
[ii] https://t.me/milinfolive/85706; https://version.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-06-24-22/h_331623602548c154add7ac769527eece
[iii] https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/standing/1540320014200340480
[iv] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13
[v] https://t.me/miroshnik_r/7737; https://www.kp dot ru/each day/27409/4607409/
[vi] https://gur.gov dot ua/content material/kreml-planuie-pidryv-zhytlovykh-budynkiv-u-mozyri-shchob-vtiahnuty-bilorus-u-viinu-proty-ukrainy.html;https://t.me/DIUkraine/734; https://t.me/Bratchuk_Sergey/14355
[vii] https://t.me/bazabazon/12115; https://t.me/bazabazon/12117
[viii] https://t.me/bazabazon/12094
[ix] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466; https://t.me/rybar/34323; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37791; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3716?single;
[x] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3729
[xi] https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vidstup-zsu-z-lysychanska-syevyerodonetsk/31913046.html; https://t.me/stranaua/48623
[xii] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3730
[xiii] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3730
[xiv] https://vk.com/mil?z=video-133441491_456261422percent2Fd994b3b3b5e2f47504percent2Fpl_wall_-133441491; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/standing/1540366630206808064
[xv] https://t.me/espresotb/33236; https://t.me/spravdi/11494
[xvi] https://t.me/mod_russia/17103; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37791
[xvii] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3736
[xviii] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html; https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vidstup-zsu-z-lysychanska-syevyerodonetsk/31913046.html; https://t.me/stranaua/48623
[xix] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466; https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[xx] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[xxi] Ukrainian sources doubtless incorrectly reported that Motuzyanyk referred to Novoselivka in Kharkiv Oblast. Motuzyanyk doubtless referred to Novoselivka in northeastern Donetsk Oblast, sitauted close to Lyman, Sviatohisrk, and Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border. https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514341-vorog-mae-pevni-takticni-uspihi-na-okremih-dilankah-zavdaki-perevazi-v-artilerii-motuzanik.html
[xxii] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[xxiii] https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37813; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37797
[xxiv] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37791; https://t.me/rybar/34336
[xxv] https://www dot radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryazovya-mykolayiv-obstrili-senkevych/31911643.html?fbclid=IwAR2trXw_eKhzEEPeMQbbP8auGDCTNaP9YcIzFyNbm5hiS0gVsoKPcOnIGhE; https://t.me/stranaua/48615; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030; https://t.me/der_rada/1679;
[xxvi] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[xxvii] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514348-rosiani-namagautsa-otociti-ukrainski-vijska-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21
[xxviii] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/347169520929466
[xxix] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/346810547632030; https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=462265935735111; https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=544942880473798
[xxx] https://www dot ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3514348-rosiani-namagautsa-otociti-ukrainski-vijska-v-rajoni-lisicanska-minoboroni.html
[xxxi] https://www dot gazeta.ru/military/information/2022/06/24/17996228.shtml; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/37797
[xxxii] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/06/24/v-hersoni-pidirvaly-shhe-odnogo-kolaboranta/; https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/24/car-bomb-kills-russia-installed-official-in-occupied-ukraine-a78094
[xxxiii] https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=462265935735111
[xxxiv] https://www dot unian dot web/struggle/v-melitopole-rossiyane-gotovyatsya-k-referendumu-sozdali-shtab-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11877771 dot html; http://ukrstat dot gov dot ua/druk/publicat/kat_u/2021/zb/05/zb_chuselnistpercent202021 dot pdf
[xxxv] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-21
