June 17, 7:00 pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date every day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Russian forces are persevering with to deploy extra forces to help offensive operations within the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk space, and Ukrainian defenses stay sturdy. Ukrainian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk reported that Russian forces are transferring tanks, armored personnel carriers, engineering tools, and automobiles from Svatove, alongside the Russian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) in Luhansk Oblast, to Starobilsk, simply 40 km east of Severodonetsk.[1] Social media customers reported that Russian forces are doubtless redeploying tools from northern Kharkiv Oblast to Donbas and printed footage of Russian heavy artillery arriving by rail in Stary Osokol, Belgorod Oblast on June 17.[2] UK Chief of Protection Tony Radakin acknowledged that Russian forces are “diminishing” in energy by committing massive portions of personnel and tools for incremental features in a single space.[3] The Russian navy has concentrated the overwhelming majority of its out there fight energy to seize Severodonetsk and Lysychansk on the expense of different axes of advance and is struggling heavy casualties to take action.
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that Russian forces will assault Ukrainian positions close to Donetsk Metropolis however reiterated that the brand new tactic would require extra time throughout his deal with on the St. Petersburg Financial Discussion board on June 17.[4] Putin acknowledged that Russian forces will cease what he claimed is Ukrainian shelling of Donetsk Metropolis by attacking Ukrainian fortifications from the rear. Putin might have amplified reviews of shelling of civilian areas of Donetsk Metropolis, which Ukrainian officers have denied, to discourage Western officers from supplying weapons to Ukraine.[5] Putin additionally declared that Russian forces will totally full the “particular navy operation” in Ukraine, and famous that Russian and proxy forces will intensify counter-battery fight.[6] Putin urged Russian forces to chorus from totally destroying cities that they purpose to “liberate,” ignoring the destruction Russian forces have inflicted on Ukrainian cities and the artillery-heavy ways Russian forces are at the moment using in Severodonetsk.”[7]
Unconfirmed Ukrainian sources report that the Kremlin fired the Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-Common Andrey Serdyukov, because of mass casualties amongst Russian paratroopers. Odesa Oblast Army-Civil Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk reported that the Kremlin appointed the present chief of workers of the Central Army District, Colonel-Common Mikhail Teplinsky, as Serdyukov’s substitute and named the Deputy Commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Lieutenant Common Anatoly Kontsevoi, because the First Deputy Chief of Workers of the Russian Airborne Forces.[8][9] ISW can’t independently verify these claims or Serdyukov’s precise function within the invasion of Ukraine, however they, if true, would point out that Serdyukov is being held answerable for the poor efficiency of and excessive casualties amongst Russian VDV models, significantly in early operations round Kyiv. Continued dismissals and doable inner purges of senior Russian officers will doubtless additional degrade poor Russian command and management capabilities and the boldness of Russian officers.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful floor assaults towards Severodonetsk and its southeastern outskirts on June 17.
- Russian forces continued efforts to sever Ukrainian traces of communication to Lysychansk, each from the north towards Slovyansk and within the south close to Bakhmut.
- Ukrainian forces are doubtless conducting a counteroffensive northwest of Izyum meant to attract Russian forces away from offensive operations towards Slovyansk and disrupt Russian provide traces and are making minor features.
- Ukrainian forces and aviation continued to strike Russian logistics and fortifications in occupied settlements alongside the Southern Axis, with localized preventing ongoing.
- Russian forces continued to regroup and switch personnel inside Zaporizhia Oblast to take care of defensive positions alongside the frontline.
- Russian President Putin reaffirmed his dedication to “finishing” the Russian operation in Ukraine however acknowledged that unspecified new Russian ways (that are doubtless merely explanations for poor Russian efficiency) will take time.
- Unconfirmed Ukrainian sources reported that the Kremlin fired the commander of the Russian Airborne Forces, Colonel-Common Andrey Serdyukov, because of poor efficiency.
We don’t report intimately on Russian battle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t immediately have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We’ll proceed to guage and report on the results of those felony actions on the Ukrainian navy and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We completely condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity regardless that we don’t describe them in these reviews.
- Foremost Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Foremost Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops within the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis;
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Foremost Effort—Jap Ukraine
Subordinate Foremost Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Jap Ukraine and seize the whole thing of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful floor assaults towards Severodonetsk and its southeastern outskirts on June 17. The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults on Syrotyne and Metolkine, simply southeast of Severodonetsk.[10] Russian forces are reportedly deploying extra artillery techniques and troops to help offensive operations in Severodonetsk.[11] Ukrainian parliamentary consultant and navy commentator Dmytro Snyegiryev acknowledged on June 17 that Russian forces have already got seven battalion tactical teams (BTGs) in Severodonetsk and lately launched two reserve BTGs to the world, however ISW can’t independently confirm Snyegiryev’s claims or the timeframe of his assertion.[12] Ukrainian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk added that Ukrainian forces proceed to retain positions on the Azot Chemical Plant within the southeastern a part of Severodonetsk.[13] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces are attacking Toshkivka, doubtless in an effort to safe positions on the western financial institution of the Siverskyi Donets River.[14]
Russian forces continued to assault settlements alongside the Ukrainian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Lysychansk. Russian forces launched an unsuccessful assault on Zolote, close to the T1303 Hirske-Lysychansk freeway, and are doubtless making an attempt to encircle Ukrainian forces within the space.[15] Ukrainian forces additionally reportedly repelled Russian assaults on Berestove, Nyrokove, and Vasylivka alongside the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk freeway and Kodema, roughly 14km south of Bakhmut.[16] Russian forces dedicated extra two battalions of the first and 2nd Army Corps (the armed forces of the DNR and LNR) and are persevering with to regroup troops to proceed assaults alongside the T1303 freeway.[17] Russian forces might also be making an attempt to renew river crossings southeast of Lyman to disrupt Ukrainian GLOCs round Siversk. Motuzyanuk acknowledged that Russian forces are making ready to cross the Siverskiy Donets and are shelling settlements southeast of Lyman.[18] Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian Particular Operation Forces destroyed a Russian pontoon bridge close to Bilohorivka (roughly 13km south of Kreminna) on June 16. Russian forces beforehand suffered important losses throughout a failed river crossing try close to Bilohorivka in early Could.[19]
Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance north of Slovyansk and southeast of Izyum on June 17. The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Russian forces did not seize Bohorodychne (roughly 25 km southeast of Izyum) and retreated to beforehand occupied positions.[20] Russian forces additionally carried out unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operations close to Krasnopillia, positioned alongside the E40 freeway to Slovyansk.[21] Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensives southwest of Izyum and pushed Russian forces out of Dmytrivka.[22]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Withdraw forces to the north and defend floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)
Russian forces engaged in clashes north and northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis to push Ukrainian forces away from the worldwide border on June 17. The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Russian forces carried out unsuccessful reconnaissance-in-force operations in Kochubiyika, simply west of the Kharkiv Metropolis-Belgorod freeway.[23] Ukrainian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk acknowledged that Russian forces are regrouping troops and conducting air reconnaissance in settlements inside a 40 km vary northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis in preparation to renew offensive operations in Ternova-Rubizhne space.[24] Social media footage additionally confirmed mobilized Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republic (DNR and LNR) servicemen working simply east of Ternova and Rubizhne, who’re doubtless defending Russian-occupied positions alongside the border.[25]
Ukrainian and Russian sources are more and more reporting on the potential for Ukrainian counteroffensives towards Izyum from Kharkiv Metropolis’s southeastern outskirts.[26] The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Russian forces are defending rear positions to halt any Ukrainian advances towards Izyum from Kharkiv Metropolis.[27] Professional-Russian Telegram channel Rybar famous that Ukrainian forces are actively making an attempt to disrupt Russian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.[28] Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov reported that Russian artillery continues to fireside at Chuhuiv, roughly 35 km southeast of Kharkiv Metropolis.[29] These Ukrainian operations are doubtless meant to attract Russian forces away from offensive operations towards Slovyansk and disrupt Russian provide traces.
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts towards Ukrainian counterattacks)
Ukrainian forces and aviation continued to strike Russian logistics and fortifications in occupied settlements alongside the Southern Axis. The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Ukrainian aviation struck Russian positions in Kherson Metropolis, Kakhovka, and Bersylav districts located at the least 45 km southeast of the road of contact on the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[30] Geolocated footage additionally reveals that Ukrainian forces beforehand destroyed a Russian ammunition depot and tools restore heart in Nova Kakhovka (simply southwest of Kakhovka) on June 14.[31] Professional-Russian Telegram channel Rybar reported that Ukrainian Su-25 jet plane struck Russian positions in occupied Snihurivka, roughly 65 km east of Mykolaiv Metropolis, however ISW can’t independently confirm this declare.[32] Ukrainian forces destroyed Russia’s Black Sea Fleet “Vasily Bekh” tugboat because it delivered ammunition, weapons, and personnel to Snake Island off the Romanian coast regardless of the presence of Russian air-defense techniques on the island.[33] Russian forces continued to fireside at Ukrainian forces alongside your complete Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border, more likely to deter Ukrainian counterattacks within the space.[34] The power of Ukrainian ground-attack plane (versus air-to-ground missiles fired from exterior Russian-controlled airspace) to strike targets as much as 45 km behind the Russian entrance traces signifies that earlier Russian efforts to bolster air defenses round Kherson haven’t been totally efficient.
Russian forces continued to regroup and switch personnel inside Zaporizhia Oblast to take care of defensive positions alongside the frontline.[35] Ukraine’s Zaporizhia Oblast Army Administration reported that Russian forces are concentrating troops within the Vasylivka and Polohy areas, 45 km south and 90 km southeast of Zaporizhia Oblast, respectfully.[36] Russian forces reportedly relocated some components from different settlements in Zaporizhia Oblast to Melitopol and are planning to maneuver extra models to the town from the Enerhodar space.[37] The Zaporizhia Oblast Army Administration additionally famous that there aren’t any indications that Russian forces intend to conduct offensive operations towards Orihiv or Huliaipole (each settlements north of the frontline) within the close to future. Russian forces doubtless lack the manpower to renew floor offensives in Zaporizhia Oblast and are doubtless reinforcing their frontline positions to defend towards doable Ukrainian counterattacks.
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set circumstances for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)
Russian President Vladimir Putin implied that Russian-occupied settlements will maintain referendums to hitch Russia throughout his deal with to the St. Petersburg Financial Discussion board on June 17.[38] Putin stated that Russian-occupied settlements will decide their very own future and that the Kremlin will “respect any of their decisions.” Putin additionally blamed Ukraine for threatening a meals disaster in Africa and the Center East, claiming that Ukrainian forces positioned mines round ports and stopped grain exports.[39] Nonetheless, the Zaporizhia Oblast Army Administration reported recognizing one other ten Russian vans full of Ukrainian grain heading from Melitopol to Crimea on June 16.[40]
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