Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, June 16

AFGHANISTAN, June 17 –

Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes

June 16, 7:00 pm ET

Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day alongside the static maps current on this report.

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy, and Romania dedicated to Ukrainian officers that the West wouldn’t demand any concessions from Ukraine to appease Russia and can help Ukraine to the top of the struggle throughout a go to to Kyiv on June 16. French President Emmanuel Macron declared that France, Germany, Italy, and Romania are “are doing all the pieces in order that Ukraine alone can resolve its destiny.”[1] Macron added that Ukraine “should be capable of win” and pledged to supply six extra self-propelled howitzers.[2] German Chancellor Olaf Scholz acknowledged that Germany will proceed to supply monetary, humanitarian, and weapons help for “Ukraine’s struggle of independence.”[3] Macron, Scholz, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis moreover vowed to again Ukraine’s bid to develop into an official candidate for European Union membership.[4] Sustained Western navy help to Ukraine will likely be important to allow Ukrainian forces to liberate Russian-occupied territory.

Ukrainian protection officers explicitly requested Western heavy artillery, unmanned aerial autos, and multiple-launch rocket techniques (MLRS) forward of a protracted struggle. Ukrainian Deputy Protection Minister Denys Sharapov and Land Drive Command Logistics Commander Volodymyr Karpenko acknowledged that Ukrainian forces want lots of of artillery techniques, together with infantry preventing autos and tanks, as Ukrainian forces have suffered 30% to 50% tools losses in energetic fight.[5] Sharapov and Karpenko famous that Ukrainian forces want Predator drones and loitering munitions to precisely strike Russian forces. Sharapov and Karpenko additionally requested for long-range precision weapons reminiscent of MLRS to defend the whole 2,500 km frontline in Ukraine.

Ukrainian officers acknowledged that Russian forces have already dedicated about 330,000 servicemen to their invasion of Ukraine with out conducting partial or full-scale mobilization in Russia. Ukrainian Basic Workers Predominant Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov acknowledged that Russian forces grouped 150,000 servicemen into battalion tactical teams (BTGs) and different formations and concerned further 70,000 troops from air and sea parts, with the remaining personnel staffing non-combat help models.[6] Gromov famous that Russian forces dedicated greater than 80,000 servicemen of the mobilized reserve, as much as 7,000 reservists of the Russian Fight Army Reserve (BARS-2021), as much as 18,000 members of the Russian Nationwide Guard (Rosguardia), and as much as 8,000 troops from non-public navy firms. Gromov didn’t specify if Ukrainian officers included details about forcibly mobilized servicemen within the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics (DNR and LNR) in these numbers. Gromov famous that the Kremlin should still improve the variety of Russian navy personnel in Ukraine by executing covert or full mobilization.[7] Gromov famous that whereas it’s unknown if the Kremlin will declare mobilization, Russian forces will nonetheless want time to execute the deployment and coaching of the brand new personnel whether or not or not the Kremlin pronounces full mobilization.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces continued to launch floor assaults on Severodonetsk and settlements alongside the Ukrainian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Lysychansk. Ukrainian navy intelligence reported that Russian forces are now not working as concrete battalion tactical teams (BTGs), as ISW beforehand assessed.
Russian forces performed unsuccessful offensive operations northwest of Slovyansk, whereas Ukrainian forces reportedly resumed preparations for counteroffensives west of Izyum.
Russian and Ukrainian forces engaged in clashes north and northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis, although no important territory modified palms.
Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in northwestern Kherson Oblast, possible in anticipation of Ukrainian counteroffensives within the area.
Head of the Donetsk Individuals’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin continued to debate and signal patronage agreements with Russian regional officers.

We don’t report intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t instantly have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We’ll proceed to judge and report on the results of those prison actions on the Ukrainian navy and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity regardless that we don’t describe them in these stories.

Predominant Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and three supporting efforts);
Subordinate Predominant Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops within the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis;
Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
Actions in Russian-occupied Areas

Predominant Effort—Jap Ukraine

Subordinate Predominant Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Jap Ukraine and seize everything of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces are prioritizing operations to disrupt Ukrainian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Lysychansk from a number of instructions. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valeryi Zalyzhnyi stated that Russian forces are concurrently launching assaults in Donbas in 9 instructions, introduced as a two-part course together with the primary location Russian forces are attacking from and their meant goal: Popasna-Komyshuvakha, Popasna-Mykolaivka, Popasna-Berestove, Bohorodychne-Slovyansk, Izyum-Slovyansk, Popasna-Svitlodarsk, Severodonetsk-Lysychansk, Severodonetsk-Metolkine, and Komushuvakha-Toshkivka.[8] Ukrainian Basic Workers Predominant Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov famous that Russian forces are committing smaller parts (firm or platoon-sized assault teams) moderately than full-fledged battalion tactical teams (BTGs) for offensive operations.[9] Gromov added that Russian forces will not be conducting offensive operations at evening. The UK Protection Ministry additionally acknowledged that Russian forces are working in “more and more advert hoc and severely undermanned groupings” in Donbas that sometimes advance by foot.[10]

Russian forces performed floor assaults in Severodonetsk in a grinding effort to determine management over town.[11] Gromov reported that Ukrainian forces proceed to withstand Russian assaults in Severodonetsk and are halting Russian operations to seize Metolkine and Syrotyne, simply southeast of Severodonetsk.[12] Russian forces possible intend to seize Metolkine and Syvrotyne, moderately than strictly concentrating on Severodonetsk, to push again Ukrainian forces on the western financial institution of Siverskyi Donets River and safe entry to the japanese riverbank. Gromov clarified that Ukrainian forces retain a number of logistics routes to Severodonetsk regardless of the destruction of 4 bridges over the Siverskyi Donets River, pushing again on latest media stories and Russian claims that Ukrainian forces within the metropolis are fully minimize off.[13] Head of the Luhansk Individuals’s Republic (LNR) Leonid Pasechnik acknowledged that Ukrainian forces nonetheless management the territory of the Azot Chemical Plant however that Russian and proxy forces entered the premises of the power on June 16.[14]

Russian forces continued to assault Ukrainian GLOCs round Popasna on June 16. The Ukrainian Basic Workers reported that Ukrainian forces repulsed Russian assaults on Berestove, located on the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk freeway.[15] Professional-Russian milblogger and Russian navy journalist Yevgeniy Poddubnyi claimed that Russian forces management unspecified segments alongside the T1302 and have interdicted switch of Ukrainian reserves from Bakhmut however ISW can’t independently verify this declare.[16] The Donetsk Individuals’s Republic (DNR) Territorial Protection moreover claimed to have established management over Novoluhanske, Luhanske, Rozsadky, and Shakhtarsk, southeast of Bakhmut.[17]

Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults northwest of Slovyansk and made incremental territorial advances southeast of Izyum. The Ukrainian Basic Workers reported that Russian forces didn’t seize Dolyna (on the E40 freeway to Slovyansk) and retreated to beforehand occupied positions.[18] Geolocated footage reveals Ukrainian forces focusing on Russian heavy artillery making an attempt to advance from the east and the northwestern outskirts of Bohorodychne, roughly 25 km southeast of Izyum.[19] Ukrainian forces could also be resuming counteroffensive operations west of Izyum. Professional-Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Ukrainian forces established a pontoon bridge over the Siverskyi Donets River, roughly 26 km west of Izyum, on June 15.[20] Continued Russian artillery hearth west and northwest of Izyum can also be possible an indicator of Ukrainian counteroffensives within the space.[21] If confirmed, this Ukrainian counteroffensive is probably going meant to sever Russian traces of communication to the Izyum and Lyman areas.

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Withdraw forces to the north and defend floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)

Russian forces reportedly continued to have interaction in localized clashes with Ukrainian parts to take care of their occupied positions close to the worldwide border on June 16.[22] Professional-Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Russian forces fought Ukrainian models in Dementiivka and Ruska Lozova alongside the Belgorod-Kharkiv Metropolis freeway and in Rubizhne and Ternova, roughly 45 km northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis.[23] NASA FIRMS knowledge noticed important high-temperature anomalies in Dementiivka however didn’t verify any anomalies in Ruska Lozova.

[Source: NASA’s Fire Information for Resource Management System over Dementiivka for June 16]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in opposition to Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces continued to fortify fallback positions in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts, possible in response to native Ukrainian counterattacks. The Ukrainian Basic Workers reported that Russian engineering parts improved defensive positions round Bezvodne and Ishchenka, simply southeast of the contested city of Davydiv Brid on the Russian floor traces of communication (GLOCs) in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[24] Ukrainian Basic Workers Predominant Operations Deputy Chief Oleksiy Gromov famous that Russian forces are additionally dismantling concrete irrigation buildings in Kherson Oblast to hide heavy artillery from Ukrainian strikes.[25] Russian forces reportedly shelled Ukrainian positions on the Kherson-Mykolaiv and Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast borders, possible in a counter-battery try and hinder Ukrainian advances.[26] Odesa Oblast Civil-Navy Administration Spokesperson Serhiy Bratchuk claimed that Ukrainian forces had unspecified successes on the Southern Axis, however ISW can’t independently confirm this declare.[27]

Russian forces could also be staging false flag assaults round Kherson Metropolis to discourage civilian help for Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported civilian casualties throughout an explosion on June 15 at a neighborhood market in Chornobaivka, a settlement simply north of Kherson Metropolis recognized for Ukrainian strikes in opposition to Russian ammunition depots within the space.[28] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command acknowledged that Russian forces search to destabilize public opinion in Kherson Metropolis and blame Ukrainian forces for launching strikes on civilian infrastructure.[29]

Russian forces reportedly carried out demonstrative assaults on settlements in japanese Zaporizhia Oblast to repair Ukrainian models in place.[30] The Ukrainian Basic Workers reported that Ukrainian forces eradicated a Russian sabotage and reconnaissance group working on the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border on June 16.[31]

Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set situations for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)

Head of the Donetsk Individuals’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin continued to pursue advert hoc cooperation preparations with Russian regional officers on the St. Petersburg Financial Discussion board on June 16.[32] Pushilin signed a Memorandum of Cooperation with Moscow Oblast Governor Andrey Vorobyov beneath which Moscow Oblast will supply patronage to Tel’manivskyi and Novoazovsk districts, simply east of Mariupol.[33] Pushilin signed one other memorandum with Tula Governor Alexei Dyumin for the restoration of Mariupol’s Left Financial institution district.[34] Pushillin additionally mentioned patronage over occupied Khrestivka (northeast of Donetsk Metropolis) with the Republic of Sakha Head Aisen Nikolaev and unspecified Donetsk Oblast settlements with the Tver Oblast Governor Igor Rudenya.[35] Pushilin is probably going making an attempt to safe Russian monetary help to revive occupied settlements in Donetsk Oblast, however his cooperation agreements with Russian native officers additional point out the DNR‘s lack of coherent annexation insurance policies.

The Kremlin is introducing extra measures to determine everlasting societal management over occupied Ukrainian territories. Self-proclaimed Deputy Head of the Kherson Navy-Civil Administration Kiril Stremousov introduced that each one youngsters born in Kherson Oblast after February 24 will mechanically obtain Russian citizenship.[36] The Russian Inner Ministry additionally introduced that Ukrainian “refugees” (a lot of whom have been possible forcibly relocated to Russia) from occupied territories should obtain correct documentation earlier than August 17 to stay in Russia.[37] The Kremlin possible seeks to coerce illegally deported Ukrainian residents in Russia to simply accept Russian citizenship or return to Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine.

[1] https://apnews.com/article/eu-leaders-visit-ukraine-515075496ed9d6cfe3e4…

[2] https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-must-win-war-russia-macron-says-after-b…

[3] https://www.wsj.com/articles/european-leaders-arrive-in-ukraine-as-kyiv-…

[4] https://apnews.com/article/eu-leaders-visit-ukraine-515075496ed9d6cfe3e4…

[5] https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2022/6/15/ukraine-to-us…

[6] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/16/u-vijni-proty-ukrayiny-berut-uchast-blyzko-330-tysyach-vijskovyh-zs-rf-oleksij-gromov/

[7] https://lb dot ua/society/2022/06/16/520271_narazi_zagrozi_novogo_nastupu_rosii.html

[8] https://information dot liga.web/ua/politics/information/zalujnyy-rf-odnovremenno-atakuet-na-devyati-napravleniyah-severodonetsk-klyuchevaya-tochka

[9] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/16/u-genshtabi-zsu-rozpovily-pro-osoblyvosti-taktyky-vijsk-rf/

[10] https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/standing/1537309127445303297

[11] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/340929798220105; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/340929798220105; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/341317358181349

[12] https://information dot liga.web/ua/politics/information/mosty-razrusheny-no-puti-snabjeniya-est-genshtab-o-situatsii-v-severodonetske-i-planah-rf

[13] https://information dot liga.web/ua/politics/information/mosty-razrusheny-no-puti-snabjeniya-est-genshtab-o-situatsii-v-severodonetske-i-planah-rf

[14] https://t.me/readovkanews/36858; https://tass dot ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/14927491?utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=natural&utm_campaign=google.com&utm_referrer=google.com; https://t.me/milinfolive/85216

[15] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/341317358181349

[16] https://t.me/epoddubny/11255

[17] https://t.me/TRO_DPR/3533; https://t.me/TRO_DPR/3531

[18] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/341317358181349

[19] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/standing/1537164819454992384; https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/standing/1537164819454992384

[20] https://t.me/rybar/33956

[21] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/340232081623210

[22] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/341317358181349; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/340929798220105; https://t.me/synegubov/3447

[23] https://t.me/rybar/33960; https://t.me/rybar/33959; https://t.me/rybar/33956; https://t.me/rybar/33956

[24] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/340929798220105; https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=344631617820850

[25] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/16/rosarmiya-znyshhuye-irygaczijnu-systemu-na-pivdni-ukrayiny/

[26] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/341317358181349; https://t.me/rybar/33957; https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=344631617820850