Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, June 13

AFGHANISTAN, June 13 – Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, June 13

Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes

June 13, 7:30pm ET

Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date every day alongside the static maps current on this report.

Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia revealed and shortly eliminated an attraction by the First Deputy Head of the Russian Presidential Administration Sergey Kirelenko for Russia to rebuild the Donbas on June 12 and blamed hackers for what they (doubtless falsely) claimed was a “faux publication.” Izvestia doubtless meant to avoid wasting the article for a later date to set informational circumstances for Russian annexation of Donbas. Kirelenko’s attraction acknowledged that Russia will restore the Donbas no matter excessive prices or if doing so lowers the usual of dwelling in Russia.[1] Izvestia blamed unknown hackers for publishing a “faux article,” however it’s potential that hackers as an alternative launched an article Izvestia had ready to publish at a later date. The Kremlin beforehand revealed and eliminated an article prematurely celebrating a Russian victory over Ukraine in late February and discussing the seize of Ukraine in previous tense in anticipation of Ukraine’s capitulation throughout the first Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Belarus.[2] Unnamed Kremlin officers beforehand recognized Kirelenko as the long run head of a brand new Russian federal district, which might embody Donbas, and occupied settlements in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[3]

Russia continues to deploy insufficiently ready volunteer and reserve forces to bolster its ongoing operations. Kremlin-sponsored outlet Izvestia launched footage exhibiting Russian artillery reservists present process coaching with previous D-20 howitzers reportedly inside 10 days of their deployment to Ukraine.[4] The reservists centered on studying the way to function hand-held weapons, regardless of being reportedly solely days away from deploying. Social media footage additionally confirmed Russian forces transporting Russian volunteer and reserve items with T-80BV tanks (a variant produced in 1985, versus the modernized T-80 BVM operated by the first Guards Tank Army) and BMP-1 armored personnel carriers (which have largely been phased out in favor of the BMP-2) to Belgorod Oblast on June 9.[5] Extra social media footage confirmed Russian forces transporting T-80BV tanks faraway from storage in Moscow Oblast on June 9.[6]

Key Takeaways

Russian forces pushed Ukrainian defenders from the middle of Severodonetsk and reportedly destroyed the remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk on June 13, however Ukrainian officers reported that Ukrainian forces should not encircled within the metropolis.
Russian forces carried out unsuccessful floor assaults in an try and sever Ukrainian floor strains of communications (GLOCs) close to Popasna and Bakhmut.
Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Izyum and north of Slovyansk, and are doubtless setting circumstances for an assault on Siversk and northwestern Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk.
Russian forces are doubtless conducting a restricted offensive instantly northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis in a possible try and push Ukrainian forces out of artillery vary of Russian rear areas and secured some successes.
Russian and Ukrainian forces are partaking in ongoing combating for Davydiv Brid in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
Russian occupation authorities doubtless staged terrorist exercise in Melitopol and Berdyansk for Russia Day on June 12.

We don’t report intimately on Russian battle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t instantly have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to guage and report on the results of those prison actions on the Ukrainian army and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity regardless that we don’t describe them in these studies.

Important Effort—Japanese Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and three supporting efforts);
Subordinate Important Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops within the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts
Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis;
Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
Actions in Russian-occupied Areas

Important Effort—Japanese Ukraine

Subordinate Important Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Japanese Ukraine and seize everything of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces performed offensive operations in Severodonetsk and pushed Ukrainian forces away from the town middle on June 13 however didn’t totally seize the town. Ukrainian Protection Ministry Spokesperson Oleksandr Motuzyanyk famous that Russian forces didn’t totally clear Severodonetsk of Ukrainian resistance on account of Russia’s reluctance to commit its (doubtless understrength) infantry items and overreliance on artillery and assault aviation for offensive operations.[7] The Ukrainian Common Employees added that combating continues to be ongoing in Severodonetsk.[8] Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces destroyed the final remaining bridge from Severodonetsk to Lysychansk and retain a big artillery benefit over Ukrainian forces.[9] Deputy Head of the Donetsk Individuals’s Republic (DNR) Militia Eduard Basurin blamed Ukrainian forces for destroying the bridge (although it’s extremely unlikely Ukrainian forces would willingly destroy the bridge whereas any of their forces remained in Severodonetsk and this declare is probably going false) and claimed that Russian forces are totally encircling remaining Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk.[10] Haidai denied Basurin’s claims of encirclement, noting that Ukrainian forces nonetheless have restricted army channels for the evacuation of wounded troops and reinforcements regardless of the destruction of all three bridges.[11] Haidai specified that Ukrainian authorities couldn’t conduct civilian evacuations and humanitarian efforts as a result of Russian forces broken the third bridge previous to its destruction on June 13. Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces continued to carry defensive positions across the Azot Chemical Plant on June 12.[12] The Ukrainian Common Employees reported that Russian forces additionally performed unsuccessful offensive operations on Metolkino, roughly 4km east of Severodonetsk.[13]

Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked settlements adjoining to Ukrainian floor strains of communication (GLOCs) south of Lysyschansk. The Ukrainian Common Employees reported that Ukrainian forces repulsed Russian assaults on Vrubivka, a settlement on a connecting street to the Lysychansk-Bakhmut T1302 freeway.[14] Russian forces reportedly resumed floor assaults close to Zolote, a settlement adjoining to the Ukrainian GLOCs alongside the T1303 freeway to Lysychansk.[15] A Luhansk Individuals’s Republic (LNR) Militia commander (below the pseudonym Chapai) claimed that Russian forces seized Toshkivka, roughly 4.5km east of the T1303, however the Ukrainian Common Employees reported that Russian forces continued to shell Ukrainian positions within the settlement on June 13, indicating combating doubtless stays ongoing.[16] Russian forces reportedly performed unsuccessful assaults on Kodema and Novoluhanske – roughly 15 and 21km south of Bakhmut, respectively.[17] Professional-Russian Telegram Rybar claimed that parts of the Russian Wagner Group have been combating in Pokrovske (12.5km east of Bakhmut) since June 11, however Ukrainian sources acknowledged that Russian forces are finishing up aerial reconnaissance within the settlement.[18]

Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations southeast of Izyum and in settlements north of Slovyansk however didn’t resume assaults within the Lyman space on June 13. The Ukrainian Common Employees reported that Russian forces attacked Bohorodychne, roughly 25km southeast of Izyum, however solely secured the northwestern outskirts of the settlement.[19] Russian forces additionally launched an unsuccessful assault on Dolyna, a settlement alongside the E40 freeway to Slovyansk.[20] Ukrainian army journalist Andriy Tsaplienko reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensives simply west of Izyum and have liberated Zavody and Spivakivka, however Ukrainian officers didn’t affirm this report.[21] Russian forces are doubtless persevering with their preparations to chop off Ukrainian GLOCs to Lysychansk from Siversk and the northwest. Russian forces reportedly shelled Maiaky (simply 5 kilometers northeast of Siversk) and transferred as much as 80 items of army and artillery tools to Kreminna and Starobilsk.[22] LNR Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik claimed that Russian forces will doubtless concurrently assault Lysychansk and Siversk to dam Ukrainian forces from retreating to Slovyansk.[23] Russian forces doubtless search to set circumstances for direct assaults in opposition to Siversk and settlements northwest of Lysychansk within the subsequent two weeks.

Russian forces didn’t conduct any offensive operations east or west of Avdiivka on June 13 and continued to shell surrounding settlements.[24] Ukraine’s Joint Forces Job Pressure reported liberating three unnamed settlements and pushing again the road of contact by 15km in Donetsk Oblast, although ISW can’t independently confirm this declare.[25]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Withdraw forces to the north and defend floor strains of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum)

Russian forces are doubtless conducting a restricted offensive instantly northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis in a possible try and push Ukrainian forces out of artillery vary of Russian rear areas. Russian forces made incremental territorial features in settlements alongside the Ukrainian-Russian border northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis on June 13. The Ukrainian Common Employees reported that Russian forces launched partially profitable floor assaults on the border settlements of Ternova and Izbutske, roughly 40km northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis, and secured the northern outskirts of Izbutske.[26] Professional-Russian Telegram channel Rybar claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces are partaking in trench and artillery warfare in Tsupivka and Velyki Prokhody, simply west and east of the Kharkiv Metropolis-Belgorod Metropolis freeway.[27] Geolocated footage confirmed that Ukrainian forces continued to focus on Russian ammunition storages in Velyki Prokhody.[28] Kharkiv Oblast Head Oleg Synegubov reported that Russian forces launched MLRS strikes on residential areas of Kharkiv Metropolis in a single day.[29]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in opposition to Ukrainian counterattacks)

Ukrainian forces reportedly continued to regularly assault Russian positions on the japanese financial institution of Inhulets River in northwestern Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command famous that Ukrainian and Russian forces engaged in heavy combating within the Davydiv Brid space, an operationally important settlement located on the japanese Inhulets riverbank and on Russian floor strains of communication (GLOCs) alongside the T2207 freeway.[30] The Ukrainian Common Employees reported that Russian forces performed aerial reconnaissance over Davydiv Brid, however the scope of Ukrainian advances within the settlement stays unclear.[31] Russian forces continued to fortify their positions and reportedly strengthened the grouping of troops in areas close to the Dnipropetrovsk-Kherson Oblast border.[32]

Ukrainian artillery struck Russian gas and ammunition depots in Polohy, roughly 60km west of Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border.[33]

Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set circumstances for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)

Russian authorities might have staged false flag assaults in Melitopol and Berdyansk on June 12, more likely to accuse Ukrainian partisans of focusing on civilians. Self-proclaimed head of the Zaporizhia Oblast Navy-Civilian Administration Vladimir Rogov made a preliminary announcement that “terrorists” staged three explosions in Berdyansk, earlier than retracting his statements and figuring out the state of affairs as an accident on the electrical station.[34] Rogov falsely maintained that Berdyansk residents attribute any emergency within the metropolis to Ukrainian efforts to disturb peaceable life in “liberated” (Russian-occupied) areas. Self-proclaimed deputy head of the Zaporizhia Oblast Inner Affairs Ministry Alexei Selivanov additionally claimed that unknown assailants planted an explosive machine in Melitopol to disrupt Russia Day (the day of adoption of the declaration of Russian state sovereignty after the collapse of the Soviet Union).[35] Zaporizhia Oblast Navy Administration Head Oleksandr Starukh famous that Ukrainian authorities warned that Russian forces might stage terrorist exercise previous to Russia Day.[36]

Russian occupation authorities proceed to face personnel shortages that impede their occupation measures. The Ukrainian Navy Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces in Mariupol have been unable to recruit collaborators by promising particular person candidates 10,000 rubles per 30 days and switched to providing funds in meals provides, given the dire humanitarian state of affairs within the metropolis.[37] The GUR added that Russian occupation authorities are inviting any volunteers to filter out rubble and useless our bodies in Mariupol. Mariupol Mayor’s Adviser Petro Andryushenko famous that the Russian occupation authorities are proscribing entry to humanitarian help for people youthful than 65 years of age.[38] Russian occupation authorities in Mariupol could also be making an attempt to achieve the help of aged residents and coerce youthful residents to work with Russian forces in trade for meals. Russian occupation authorities moreover deployed Donetsk Individuals’s Republic (DNR) law enforcement officials to patrol Kherson Metropolis.[39] The GUR additionally famous that Russian occupation authorities are recruiting academics with out pedagogical schooling and transporting educators from Crimea to exchange Melitopol academics that refused to show Russian curriculums.[40] Russian occupation authorities are additionally making an attempt to bribe civilians by providing debt forgiveness of all loans taken from Ukrainian banks.[41]

Russian occupation authorities proceed to introduce new titles for personnel that agreed to cooperate with the Kremlin and its proxies. The Donetsk Individuals’s Republic Head (DNR) Denis Pushilin appointed earlier Ukrainian Mayor of Sviatohirsk Vladimir Bandura as the brand new Sviatohirsk Administration Head after Bandura agreed to cooperate with Russian forces.[42] Russian occupation authorities have seemingly eradicated the place of mayor in occupied settlements, more likely to totally institute their very own governance constructions moderately than taking up current constructions.

Russian occupation authorities are persevering with to use Ukrainian agrobusiness and have reportedly banned the export of crops to Ukrainian government-controlled territories from Russian occupied settlements.[43] The GUR additionally famous that Russian forces are coercing Kherson Oblast businessmen and farmers at hand over 70% of their harvest to Crimean consumers at low revenue margins.

[1] https://meduza dot io/information/2022/06/13/na-sayte-izvestiy-poyavilos-i-propalo-obraschenie-kirienko-so-slovami-o-vosstanovlenii-donbassa-dazhe-tsenoy-snizheniya-urovnya-zhizni-v-rossii

[2] https://internet.archive.org/internet/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossi…

[3] https://meduza dot io/characteristic/2022/06/09/kak-utverzhdayut-istochniki-meduzy-kreml-hochet-ob-edinit-okkupirovannye-territorii-ukrainy-v-novyy-federalnyy-okrug-v-sostave-rf

[4] https://twitter.com/RALee85/standing/1536268156163051522; https://t.me/izvestia/92220

[5] https://twitter.com/RALee85/standing/1536105022219599872

[6] https://t.me/milinfolive/84788

[7] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/06/13/operatyvna-sytuacziya-na-fronti-bryfing-rechnyka-mo-ukrayiny-15/

[8] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[9] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3426; https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3409; https://twitter.com/miladvisor/standing/1536083181329342474; https://twitter.com/miladvisor/standing/1536096292316893185; https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/standing/1536062280722423808; https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/standing/1536000796810256384

[10] https://ria dot ru/20220613/severodonetsk-1794993032.html

[11] https://t.me/luhanskaVTSA/3426

[12] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/standing/1536060807678664706

[13] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/339176611728757

[14] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[15] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[16] https://eadaily dot com/ru/information/2022/06/13/soyuznye-voyska-osvobodili-poselok-toshkovka-na-puti-k-lisichansku-lnr; https://lug-info dot com/information/vsu-otstupili-iz-toshkovki-v-napravlenii-lisichanska-narodnaya-miliciya; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[17] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/339176611728757; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[18] https://t.me/rybar/33862; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[19] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/339176611728757; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[20] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[21] https://slavdelo dot dn.ua/2022/06/13/boi-za-izyum-vsu-osvobodili-spivakovku-i-zavody-i-podoshli-k-gorodu-karta-mestnosti/

[22] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[23] https://t.me/miroshnik_r/7606

[24] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/339176611728757; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[25] https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=346257500976332

[26] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/338799278433157

[27] https://t.me/rybar/33862

[28] https://twitter.com/doppelot/standing/1536320743646060545; https://twitter.com/doppelot/standing/1536322719276572673; https://twitter.com/doppelot/standing/1536323389975154689; https://twitter.com/666_mancer/standing/1536290032117592066