July 23, 6:00pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date each day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Ukrainian forces are possible making ready to launch or have launched a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast as of July 23, however open-source visibility on the progress and tempo of the counteroffensive will possible be restricted and lag behind occasions. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan said on July 23 that Ukrainian forces have seized unspecified settlements in Kherson Oblast however referred to as on Ukrainian civilians to stay silent on the progress of the counteroffensive till Ukrainian authorities launch official statements.[1] Overseas Coverage Nationwide Safety Reporter Jack Detsch reported on July 22 that an unspecified senior US protection official said that Ukrainian forces have recaptured unspecified “parts of Russian-occupied villages” in Kherson over the previous week of July 15- 22, indicating that Ukrainian forces have made some unspecified territorial advances alongside frontlines.[2] The realm between the entrance line and Kherson Metropolis is rural and primarily composed of small settlements which can be much less more likely to report on pressure actions and engagements, permitting control-of-terrain on this space to vary with out proof showing in . Russian authorities moreover don’t have any incentive to report on Ukrainian territorial features. The informational dynamics that permit ISW to report on Russian offensive operations with comparatively little lag are thus inverted on this scenario. ISW will report on the progress of any Ukrainian counteroffensives to the perfect of its means inside these constraints.
Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov seemingly confirmed that Colonel Normal Sergey Kuzovlev has changed Army Normal Aleksandr Dvornikov as performing commander of Russia’s Southern Navy District (SMD).[3] Kadyrov said that Kuzovlev, to whom he explicitly referred as performing commander of the SMD, visited Chechnya on July 23 in an effort to examine Kadyrov’s “Akhmat” battalions.[4] Kuzovlev had beforehand served as Chief of Employees of the SMD and commanded the Russian grouping in Syria from November 2020 to February 2021.[5] Kuzovlev’s go to and inspection of Kadyrov’s forces, which comes two days after Kadyrov introduced that these battalions is not going to be instantly deploying into Ukraine, could assist different hints that Kadyrov is dealing with mounting home stress.[6] The anti-Kadyrov Sheikh Mansour battalion reportedly introduced an insurgency towards Kadyrov’s regime on July 21, and Kadyrov could need to maintain the newly-formed Akhmat battalions in Chechnya to deal with any native unrest.[7]
Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces are possible making ready to launch, or have already launched, a counteroffensive in Kherson Oblast.
- Head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov indicated that Colonel Normal Sergey Kuzovlev is the performing commander of the Southern Navy District.
- Russian forces performed restricted reconnaissance operations east of Bakhmut and continued restricted floor assaults northwest of Slovyansk, east of Siversk, and south of Bakhmut.
- The Kremlin continued to kind regional volunteer battalions and certain intends to have 16 such battalions fashioned by the top of July.
- Russian occupation authorities are persevering with to arrange for referenda on the annexation of occupied areas into the Russian Federation and are taking measures to isolate occupied areas from the non-Russian data house.
We don’t report intimately on Russian conflict crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t immediately have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We’ll proceed to judge and report on the results of those prison actions on the Ukrainian navy and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We completely condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity though we don’t describe them in these studies.
- Principal Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and two supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Principal Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops within the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
- Mobilization and Drive Era Efforts
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Principal Effort—Jap Ukraine
Subordinate Principal Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Jap Ukraine and seize the whole thing of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces performed a restricted northwest of Slovyansk and shelled settlements to the southeast and southwest of Izyum on July 23. The Ukrainian Normal Employees said that Ukrainian troops neutralized a Russian reconnaissance group in Bohorodychne, about 20km northwest of Slovyansk.[8] Russian forces shelled Dibrovne, Krasnopillya, and Mazanivka, all northwest of Slovyansk alongside the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border, in addition to areas southwest of Izyum within the neighborhood of Barvinkove.[9]
Russian forces performed floor assaults east of Siversk in an try and immediately advance on the town on July 23. The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Russian troops tried and didn’t advance within the instructions of Verkhnokamyankse and Siversk. The language of this report means that Russian forces could also be advancing nearer to the outskirts of Siversk itself from positions within the east.[10] Russian forces additionally continued air and artillery strikes to the north, south, and east of Siversk.[11]
Russian forces performed to the east of Bakhmut and continued unsuccessful floor assaults south of Bakhmut on July 23. The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Ukrainian forces stopped Russian reconnaissance teams from probing Ukrainian positions round Pokrovske (5km east of Bakhmut) and Soledar (10km northeast of Bakhmut), and that Russian forces continued unsuccessful assaults close to the Vuhledar Energy Plant in Novoluhanske, about 20km southeast of Bakhmut.[12] Russian forces continued artillery and airstrikes on and round Bakhmut to proceed to set situations for advances immediately on the town.[13]
Russian forces didn’t conduct any confirmed floor assaults within the Avdiivka space and continued to fireplace on Ukrainian positions alongside the Avdiivka-Donetsk Metropolis frontline.[14] NASA FIRMS information from July 15-23 reveals persistently fewer fires alongside all the frontline within the Donbas, which strongly means that HIMARS are having a continued impression on Russian artillery capabilities.
Supply: NASA’s Fireplace Info for Useful resource Administration System over Donbas, July 15 – July 23 and Esri, Maxar, Earthstar Geographics, and the GIS Consumer Group]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Defend floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces didn’t conduct any floor assaults on the Kharkiv Metropolis Axis on July 23. The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Russian forces continued to give attention to restraining Ukrainian advances in the direction of the worldwide border.[15] Russian forces performed an airstrike on Verkhnii Saltiv and continued shelling Kharkiv Metropolis and the encircling settlements.[16]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts towards Ukrainian counterattacks)
Ukrainian forces struck a bridge over the Inhulets River lower than 10km from Kherson Metropolis in Dariivka, Kherson Oblast on July 23. Footage reveals six equidistant factors of impression on the bridge and that passenger automobiles are in a position to cross the bridge however should evade the holes.[17] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan said that Ukrainian forces struck the Dariivka Bridge as a part of a sustained operation to chop the availability traces of Russian forces in Kherson Metropolis.[18]
Russian forces performed strikes on rear areas of the Southern Axis on July 23, more likely to stymie Ukrainian preparations for a counteroffensive on this axis. Russian forces launched 4 Kalibr missiles on the port of Odesa, placing a pumping station and granary with out vital injury.[19] Footage of the strike reveals Ukrainian air protection intercepting at the least two missiles.[20] Kirovohrad Oblast Head Andriy Raikovych said that Russian forces additionally struck the Kanatove navy airfield and a Ukrzaliznytsia rail transport facility in Kirovohrad Oblast with eight sea-launched Kalibr missiles and 5 air-launched Kh-22 missiles.[21] Ukrainian Mykolaiv Oblast Head Vitaly Kim said that Russian forces once more struck Mykolaiv Metropolis with six S-300 anti-air missiles.[22]
Russian forces didn’t conduct any floor assaults on the Southern Axis on July 23 and continued shelling alongside all the line of contact.[23]
Mobilization and Drive Era Efforts (Russian goal: Broaden fight energy with out conducting basic mobilization)
The Kremlin is constant efforts to kind regionally-based volunteer battalions. Spokesperson for Ukraine’s Principal Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Vadym Skibitskyi gave an interview to Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty (RFERL) on July 23 whereby he indicated that the Kremlin is planning to kind 16 new volunteer battalions by the top of this month.[24] Skibitsky additionally famous that the Kremlin is forming one other corps in Mulino, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, which seemingly helps prior statements made by the previous Kyiv protection pressure commander Oleksandr Pavlyuk that Russia is forming a 3rd Army Corps (the forces of the Donetsk and Luhansk Individuals’s Republics presently kind the 1st and a couple ofnd Army Corps, respectively) with as much as 15,000 servicemen in Mulino.[25] Skibitksy said that 8 volunteer battalions have already been fashioned as of July 23. The Kremlin has not but fashioned a volunteer battalion in St. Petersburg, the birthplace of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Authorities in Russia’s Tyumen Oblast moreover introduced the formation of three volunteer models in Tyumen Oblast on July 22.[26] Alexei Kulichkov, Tyumen’s Navy Commissar, said that the primary firm of the ”Tobol” separate engineering battalion, comprised of over 50 folks, has already deployed to unspecified coaching grounds, and that Tyumen can also be forming the ”Taiga” volunteer sniper unit (echelon unspecified) and ”Siberia” artillery battalion (”артиллерийский дивизион“) for deployment to Donbas after two or three weeks of coaching.[27] Russian federal topics are notably forming fight, fight assist, and fight service assist models, so not all 16 new battalions (or 85 if and when all federal topics kind models) will probably be fight battalions.
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set situations for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting) 
Russian occupation officers continued to set situations for referenda on the mixing of occupied areas into the Russian Federation. Russian-backed head of Zaporizhia’s occupation administration Yevheny Balitsky said on July 23 that he signed a decree to provoke preparations for a referendum on the mixing of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast into Russia by the autumn of 2022.[28] Balitsky claimed that this decree eradicated current election our bodies and created a completely new election fee.
Russian-backed occupation directors escalated measures to additional isolate occupied areas from the non-Russian data house. Occupation heads of Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts introduced on July 23 that they may begin proscribing the usage of Google and YouTube in occupied areas in an effort to restrict the flexibility of residents to seek for Ukrainian web sites on Google.[29] Kherson occupation Head Kirill Stremousov said that he moreover banned the usage of the Viber messaging app and that YouTube video internet hosting has been slowed down. The Luhansk and Donetsk Individuals’s Republics (LNR and DNR) blocked Google on July 21 and 22, respectively.[30] Russian authorities are more likely to maintain enacting such controls on the data house in an effort to curb the dissemination of any anti-Russian messaging.
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