July 21, 5:00 pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date every day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Russian forces performed just a few restricted and extremely localized floor assaults on July 21. The present Russian operational tempo isn’t markedly completely different from what it was in the course of the formally declared operational pause between July 7 and July 16. Russian forces continued to conduct minor assaults all through that interval to the northwest of Slovyansk and across the Siversk and Bakhmut areas with out capturing any decisive floor.[1] Since July 16, Russian troops have continued native assaults to the east of Siversk in addition to east and south of Bakhmut; they haven’t made any main territorial positive factors in these areas as of July 21. The Russian grouping northwest of Slovyansk has in actual fact performed fewer floor assaults alongside the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border than it did in the course of the official operational pause. The dearth of profitable floor assaults past the Slovyansk, Siversk, and Bakhmut areas is in line with ISW’s evaluation that the Russian offensive is more likely to culminate with out capturing Slovyansk or Bakhmut.[2]
Ukraine’s Primary Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 21 that Russian troops have used as much as 55-60% of Russia’s pre-war reserve of high-precision missiles.[3] GUR spokesperson Vadym Skibitksy specified that these high-precision missiles embrace Kh-101, Kh-555, Iskander, and Kalibr techniques, which he said Russian forces have been utilizing much less regularly, partially as a result of impact of Western sanctions on the supply of wanted parts for high-precision techniques.[4] Then again, Ukrainian forces have lately acquired an inflow of Western-provided high-precision techniques akin to excessive mobility artillery rocket techniques (HIMARS), which they’re utilizing to a extra decisive impact than the Russians have been attaining with their precision techniques. Russian forces will doubtless proceed to make use of their reserves of lower-precision Soviet weapons techniques, however the decisiveness of those strikes, in comparison with the influence of Ukrainian HIMARS strikes, is more likely to stay restricted.[5]
Key Takeaways
- The present Russian operational tempo isn’t markedly completely different from the tempo of Russian offensive operations in the course of the official Russian operational pause, and Russian forces are unlikely to have the ability to take vital floor within the coming weeks.
- Russia has doubtless used as a lot as 55-60% of its high-precision weaponry reserve.
- Russian forces continued restricted floor assaults to the east of Siversk and south of Bakhmut.
- Russian forces performed an unsuccessful floor assault north of Kharkiv Metropolis.
- Russian forces performed a restricted floor assault in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian forces could also be storing gear in Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant amenities to guard it in opposition to Ukrainian strikes.
- Russia’s Murmansk Oblast is reportedly forming a volunteer battalion.
We don’t report intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to guage and report on the consequences of those felony actions on the Ukrainian army and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity though we don’t describe them in these experiences.
- Primary Effort—Japanese Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and two supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Primary Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops within the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
- Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Primary Effort—Japanese Ukraine
Subordinate Primary Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Japanese Ukraine and seize the whole thing of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces performed artillery strikes to the southeast of Izyum towards Slovyansk and to the southwest of Izyum towards Barvinkove however didn’t make any confirmed floor assaults within the course of Slovyansk on July 21.[6] The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Russian forces shelled Dolyna, Bohorodychne, and Adamivka, northwest of Slovyansk, in addition to varied settlements within the neighborhood of Barvinkove.[7] Russian Telegram channel Readovka famous that Russian efforts to advance towards Slovyansk are doubtless frequently stymied by the difficult hilly and forested terrain surrounding town and claimed that Ukrainian forces preserve management of the dominant heights round Slovyansk, particularly to the south close to Kramatorsk and to the east in Raihorodok.[8] Readovka’s evaluation of Russian positions relative to terrain on this space is in line with ISW’s management of terrain evaluation.
Russian forces continued restricted and unsuccessful floor assaults east of Siversk on July 21. The Ukrainian Common Workers said that Russian forces didn’t advance from the Lysychansk Oil Refinery in Verkhnokamyanka within the course of Ivano-Darivka, about 5 km southeast of Siversk.[9] Russian troops additionally performed air and artillery strikes on Siversk and Ukrainian positions within the surrounding settlements of Serebryanka, Spirne, and Hryhorivka.[10] Russian Telegram channel Readovka famous that—much like the scenario in Slovyansk—Russian forces round Siversk haven’t but captured the dominant heights surrounding town, which leaves them weak to continued Ukrainian artillery fireplace from fortified positions.[11]
Russian forces continued restricted floor assaults south of Bakhmut on July 21. The Ukrainian Common Workers reported unsuccessful Russian assaults alongside the Klynove-Vershyna line, about 10 km southeast of Bakhmut.[12] Russian troops additionally continued to combat additional south of Bakhmut in Novoluhanske and close to the Vuhledar Energy Plant.[13] Russian forces will doubtless try to push west on Bakhmut from positions on the japanese components of Pokrovske and continued to shell Bakhmut and surrounding settlements.[14]
Russian forces continued offensive operations alongside the Avdiivka-Donetsk Metropolis line of contact on July 21. Russian milblogger Yuri Kotyenok claimed that Russian forces are preventing close to Novoselivka Druha, Kamyanka, and Novobakhmutivka with a purpose to push towards Avdiivka.[15] The Ukrainian Common Workers reported Russian strikes across the Donetsk Metropolis space and towards the Zaporizhia Oblast border.[16]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Defend floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and forestall Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces performed a restricted and unsuccessful floor assault north of Kharkiv Metropolis on July 21.[17] The Ukrainian Common Workers reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance within the Velyki Prokhody-Pytomnyk course.[18] Russian forces additionally intensified artillery strikes on Kharkiv Metropolis on July 21, placing solely civilian infrastructure in an unspecified district of town.[19] Russian forces continued launching tube and rocket artillery at Kharkiv Metropolis and settlements to the north, northeast, and southeast and launched airstrikes on Verkhnii Saltiv and Rtyshchivka.[20]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in opposition to Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces performed a restricted floor offensive in Kherson Oblast however in any other case centered on sustaining defensive positions on the Southern Axis on July 21. Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces tried a failed platoon-sized floor assault close to Andriivka and towards Lozove, Kherson Oblast, indicating that Ukrainian forces retain a bridgehead on the Inhulets River.[21] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces struck industrial areas, vitality infrastructure, and humanitarian vans in Mykolaiv Metropolis with seven S-300 anti-air missiles.[22] Russian forces shelled the Nikopol space of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with Grad a number of launch rocket techniques (MLRS), doubtless from positions in Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast.[23] Ukrainian forces destroyed six Russian ammunition depots and a command publish within the Kherson, Beryslav, and Kakhova areas of Kherson Oblast.[24] Russian forces continued shelling alongside the whole line of contact.[25]
Russian forces could also be storing heavy army gear within the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (NPP) in Enerhodar to guard it from Ukrainian strikes. Ukrainian state vitality enterprise Energoatom reported that Russian forces demanded entry to the engine rooms of reactors 1, 2, and three on July 20 and transferred 14 items of heavy army gear and ammunition to the engine room of reactor 2 on July 21.[26] Energoatom reported that the Russian gear is positioned closed to extremely flamable supplies and makes the engine room inaccessible to emergency providers in case of a fireplace. Energoatom warned that the detonation of the Russian ammunition on the Zaporizhzhia NPP would trigger a catastrophe on the identical scale because the Chernobyl catastrophe.[27] Odesa Army Administration Spokesman Serhiy Bratchuk said that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian army place in occupied Enerhodar, Zaporizhia Oblast, on July 21.[28]
Correction: A earlier model of the map specified the inaccurate date of July 22, 2022.
Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Increase fight energy with out conducting normal mobilization)
Murmansk Oblast authorities reported on July 20 that they’re recruiting for a brand new volunteer battalion to take part within the struggle in Ukraine.[29] GUR reported on July 21 that Russian forces are forming hybrid battalion tactical teams (BTGs) from components of various items as they lack adequate manpower to kind BTGs from a single army base.[30]
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set situations for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)
Nothing vital to report.
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