December 22, 7 pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpart, additional indicating that Putin isn’t curious about severe negotiations with Ukraine. Putin didn’t react to Zelensky’s remarks to the USA Congress in Washington, DC on December 22, however as an alternative oriented his December 22 press convention on US and Western affect over Ukraine.[i] Putin reiterated his boilerplate and false claims that the US and Western international locations have intervened in Ukraine because the Soviet Union, driving a wedge within the supposed Russian-Ukrainian historic and cultural unity. Such statements are supposed to recommend that Ukraine’s 1991 emergence as a sovereign state was a sham. Putin additionally restated Russia’s maximalist purpose of “defending” the Ukrainian individuals from their authorities, implying that Russia intends to power the Kyiv authorities to capitulate. Putin talked about Ukraine as a state solely to notice falsely that Ukraine had barred itself from negotiating with Russia.
Putin’s rhetoric is part of an ongoing Russian info operation that denies Ukraine’s legitimacy as a sovereign state. Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov acknowledged that Zelensky’s speech to the US Congress and the US switch to Ukraine of the Patriot air-defense programs solely “proves” that the USA is combating a proxy struggle in Ukraine, and that there aren’t any indicators of readiness for peace talks.[ii] Putin additionally implied that Russia had hoped that the West would coach Ukraine into abiding by the Minsk Agreements however as an alternative was fooled by Kyiv. Such framing goals to disqualify Ukraine from future direct negotiations below the false premises that Ukraine violated the Minsk Agreements and that Kyiv isn’t an unbiased actor. Putin‘s and Peskov’s framing are parts of an effort to steer the USA and NATO to bypass Ukraine and negotiate immediately with Russia over Zelensky’s head. This effort could be very unlikely to succeed given repeated statements by US and European leaders relating to their dedication that Ukraine will resolve its personal course. The Kremlin’s info operation can also be doubtless meant to focus blame for ”protracting” the struggle on Zelensky’s supposed intransigeance and thereby put on down US and European willingness to proceed supporting Ukrainian efforts to liberate occupied Ukrainian land.
Putin amplified one other current Russian info operation designed to lower Western safety help for Ukraine. Putin falsely accused the USA of protracting the struggle in Ukraine by offering Patriot air protection programs and vaguely implied that these programs won’t carry out a defensive objective.[iii] Putin has been setting circumstances for a protracted struggle lengthy earlier than the US determination to switch Patriots to Ukraine, even stating on December 7 that the “particular army operation“ could be a prolonged course of.[iv] The Kremlin has additionally lengthy falsely framed any Western safety help to Ukraine as an escalation.[v] The Patriot system will as an alternative increase Ukraine’s capacity to guard crucial civilian infrastructure in opposition to Russia’s air and missile marketing campaign, which is designed to inflict struggling on Ukraine’s civilian inhabitants. Patriot programs will intrude with Putin’s capacity to hammer Ukraine into surrendering on his phrases, which can be what Putin has in thoughts when he says that it protracts the struggle.
Putin can also be doubling down on an effort to absolve himself of duty for conducting a protracted struggle in Ukraine. Putin made a number of statements that Russia seeks to finish the struggle as quickly as potential whereas concurrently noting that Russia won’t improve the tempo of ”particular army operation” as a result of that will result in ”unjustified losses.” Each statements are part of the Kremlin’s consolidated effort to justify Putin’s pricey struggle effort to Russian home audiences who’re more and more making better sacrifices to meet the Kremlin’s unrealistic objectives. The Russian army has not achieved any important victories in Ukraine because the fall of Lysychansk on July 3. Putin and Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) officers have made quite a few appearances and provided obscure justifications for army failures in current days, additionally doubtless in an effort downplay the results of the protracted struggle.
Putin’s use of the time period “struggle” when relating to to the invasion of Ukraine has prompted some confusion inside the Russian info house. Putin had acknowledged through the press convention that Russia seeks to “to not spin this flywheel of a army battle, however quite the opposite – to finish this struggle.” Putin used this phrase—war–instead of the phrasing “particular army operation” when falsely accusing Ukraine of beginning a struggle in opposition to its inhabitants in 2014. Putin’s point out of “struggle” prompted a couple of milbloggers to state that they’ve all the time used each phrases interchangeably as a result of “each pondering individual is aware of that what is occurring in Ukraine is a sizzling struggle,” regardless of the shortage of an official declaration of struggle by Russia.[vi] The confusion signifies that Putin’s restricted struggle narrative could battle together with his presentation of the “particular army operation” as a struggle for Russia’s sovereignty whereas not being an official struggle.
The Russian Chief of the Normal Employees, Army Normal Valery Gerasimov, tried to revive a debunked Russian narrative that the Kremlin didn’t plan to invade Ukraine in an effort to justify Russia’s struggle in Ukraine. Gerasimov publicly reemerged to transient overseas army attaches on December 22, stating that Russia needed to launch the “particular army operation” in response to the rising “neo-Nazi ideology” in Ukraine, and Kyiv’s (non-existent) energetic army preparations to liberate Donbas and Crimea in early 2022.[vii] US intelligence had uncovered the Kremlin‘s elaborate plan to stage a collection of false flag assaults in japanese Ukraine in early February, assaults that the Kremlin meant to set off and justify a struggle.[viii] Gerasimov could also be making an attempt to revive this nonsensical info operation to assist justify the struggle to a home Russian viewers. Gerasimov additionally famous that Russian forces are focusing most of their efforts on seizing Donetsk Oblast, which additionally indicators a return to the pre-war narrative in a probable try and regain public help for the struggle. This assertion can also be inaccurate—Donetsk Oblast is the location of the one energetic Russian offensive operation, however the majority of Russia’s fight energy is in different elements of Ukraine.
The Kremlin had shunned publicly displaying Gerasimov for nearly ten months till December 17 and is probably going making an attempt to reintroduce him as one other determine chargeable for the struggle because it heads into the second yr of the invasion.[ix] Gerasimov continued Putin‘s and Russian Protection Minister Sergey Shoigu’s explanations for mobilization, and even tried to clarify away Russia’s withdrawal from right-bank Kherson Oblast as a preventative measure due to the ”menace” of a Ukrainian high-precision strike on the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Energy Plant. Gerasimov additionally claimed that Russia had stabilized the frontline alongside an 815km stretch of land. Gerasimov’s look is probably going a continuation of the Kremlin’s current efforts to rationalize the price of struggle in Ukraine, rally help for a protracted struggle, and reestablish its most well-liked narratives.[x]
The Kremlin discovered it crucial to say that Russian Protection Minister Sergey Shoigu visited the frontlines in Ukraine for the second time in every week, more likely to deflect criticism that Shoigu isn’t an concerned wartime chief. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) posted a video on December 22 purporting to indicate Russian Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu inspecting Russian troop positions close to the entrance in Ukraine.[xi] The Russian MoD is on the defensive within the Russian home info house. It doesn’t have the informational initiative and is responding to common criticisms concerning the Russian army’s shortcomings within the struggle in Ukraine. The Russian MoD doubtless felt it crucial to indicate Shoigu on the entrance traces as a result of it had falsely claimed that Shoigu visited the frontline on December 18, when he really visited Russian rear areas for a photo-op close to the Crimea-Kherson border.[xii] The matter turned extra embarrassing following Ukrainian President Zelensky’s actual frontline go to to Bakhmut on December 20.[xiii]
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin continues to hunt to raise the significance of the Wagner Group in Russian army operations in Ukraine with the intention to set up himself because the central determine of Russia’s ultra-nationalist pro-war group. US Nationwide Safety Council spokesperson John Kirby reported on December 22 that the Wagner Group obtained an arms cargo from North Korea to assist bolster Russian forces in Ukraine and that this means that the Wagner Group’s position within the struggle could also be increasing.[xiv] Kirby reported on November 2 that North Korea is covertly supplying artillery shells to Russia.[xv] Prigozhin denied Kirby’s reporting and claimed that North Korea has not equipped weapons to Russia for a very long time.[xvi] Kirby additionally reported that Prigozhin is spending greater than 100 million US {dollars} per thirty days to fund the Wagner Group’s operations in Ukraine and that the Wagner Group at present has 50,000 personnel deployed to Ukraine, together with 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts recruited from Russian prisons.[xvii] Kirby acknowledged that US intelligence believes that the Wagner Group performs a significant position in offensive operations to seize Bakhmut and that greater than 1,000 Wagner Group personnel have been killed in current weeks within the Bakhmut space.[xviii]
Prigozhin is probably going making an attempt to make use of his parallel army buildings to supply the Russian army with capacities that the Russian army at present lacks with the intention to improve his affect. North Korea’s reported cargo of weapons to the Russian army utilizing the Wagner Group as an middleman could recommend that Prigozhin is making an attempt to make use of his non-public army firm to safe overseas sources of weapons that will be harder for the Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) to formally procure. Prigozhin can also be doubtless committing a considerable quantity of personnel and assets to the Wagner Group’s operations within the Bakhmut space in hopes of offering the Russian army with an operational success that has eluded the Russian Armed Forces within the Bakhmut space in addition to the broader theater in Ukraine. ISW assesses that Prigozhin doubtless has bold political objectives and seeks to capitalize on the Kremlin’s want for extra succesful forces to build up affect and enchantment to the ultra-nationalist constituency he hopes to leverage.[xix] Prigozhin will doubtless proceed to develop the Wagner Group’s outsized position within the struggle in Ukraine in pursuit of those political objectives.
Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA) director common Rafael Grossi held talks with Russian officers on the creation of a safety zone across the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (ZNPP). Grossi traveled to Moscow and met with a Russian delegation that included Rosatom head Alexey Likhachev on December 22.[xx] Grossi reiterated the IAEA’s place {that a} security zone across the ZNPP ought to be established completely to stop a nuclear accident.[xxi] Rosatom acknowledged that talks with the IAEA will proceed based mostly on an ”understanding of the necessity to attain a mutually acceptable textual content as quickly as potential.”[xxii] ISW assesses that Russian officers try to make use of the negotiations for the creation of a security zone across the ZNPP to power the IAEA to simply accept Russian management over the plant and de facto acknowledge the unlawful Russian annexation of occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.[xxiii] The IAEA Board of Governors has introduced that it doesn’t acknowledge the unlawful Russian seizure and operation of the ZNPP, however the Kremlin will doubtless try and leverage the IAEA’s acknowledged urgency to succeed in an settlement on the creation of a safety zone to undermine that place.[xxiv]
Key Takeaways
- Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to refuse to deal with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as an equal and sovereign counterpart, additional indicating that he’s not curious about severe negotiations with Ukraine.
- Putin’s rhetoric is part of an ongoing Russian info operation that denies Ukraine’s legitimacy as a sovereign state.
- Putin amplified an current Russian info operation designed to lower Western safety help for Ukraine.
- Putin is continuous to absolve himself of duty for conducting a protracted struggle in Ukraine.
- Russian Chief of Normal Employees, Army Normal Valery Gerasimov, tried to revive a debunked Russian narrative that the Kremlin invaded Ukraine to preempt a fictitious deliberate Ukrainian assault on Russian-occupied Donbas and Crimea.
- The Kremlin claimed that Russian Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the frontlines in Ukraine for the second time in every week, more likely to deflect criticism that Shoigu isn’t an concerned wartime chief.
- Wagner Financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continues to hunt to raise the significance of the Wagner Group to ascertain himself because the central determine of Russia’s ultra-nationalist pro-war group.
- Worldwide Atomic Vitality Company (IAEA) director common Rafael Grossi held talks with Russian officers on the creation of a safety zone across the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (ZNPP).
- Russian forces continued to conduct restricted counterattacks alongside the Kreminna-Svatove line and Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations within the Kreminna space.
- Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas.
- Russian forces are growing safety measures in Kherson Oblast and Crimea out of concern of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
- A senior Russian official denied claims of a second wave of mobilization amidst ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
- Ukrainian partisans continued to focus on Russian occupation authorities.
We don’t report intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t immediately have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We’ll proceed to judge and report on the results of those felony actions on the Ukrainian army and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity although we don’t describe them in these experiences.
- Ukrainian Counteroffensives—Jap Ukraine
- Russian Principal Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and one supporting effort);
- Russian Subordinate Principal Effort—Seize the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast
- Russian Supporting Effort—Southern Axis
- Russian Mobilization and Drive Technology Efforts
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Ukrainian Counteroffensives (Ukrainian efforts to liberate Russian-occupied territories)
Jap Ukraine: (Jap Kharkiv Oblast-Western Luhansk Oblast)
Russian forces continued to conduct restricted counterattacks to regain misplaced positions alongside the Svatove-Kreminna line on December 22. Ukrainian Jap Group of Forces spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty reported that Ukrainian forces repelled six Russian assaults on Ukrainian frontline positions in Luhansk Oblast.[xxv] The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults close to Novoselivkse (14km northwest of Svatove) and Stelmakhivka (15km northwest of Svatove).[xxvi] A Russian milblogger claimed that there are ongoing positional battles between Russian and Ukrainian forces within the space of the Oskil River crossing close to Dvorichna (54km northwest of Svatove).[xxvii] The Ukrainian Normal Employees additionally reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults close to Ploshchanka (17km northwest of Kreminna) and Chervonopopivka (6km north of Kreminna).[xxviii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces additionally carried out assaults close to Bilohorivka (12km south of Kreminna) and within the route of Dibrova (5km southwest of Kreminna).[xxix] One other Russian milblogger claimed that there are positional battles between Russian and Ukrainian forces south and southwest of Dibrova.[xxx]
Ukrainian forces reportedly continued counteroffensive operations within the Kreminna space on December 22. A Russian milblogger claimed that combating is intensifying within the Kreminna space the place Ukrainian forces carried out reconnaissance in power and probed Russian positions.[xxxi] One other Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces carried out an assault within the route of Kreminna.[xxxii]
Russian Principal Effort—Jap Ukraine
Russian Subordinate Principal Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian goal: Seize the whole lot of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued offensive operations round Bakhmut on December 22. The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults close to Bakhmut; inside 26km northeast of Bakhmut close to Berestove, Yakovlivka, and Soledar; and inside 31km south of Bakhmut close to Opytne, Kurdyumivka, Ozarianivka, Mayorsk, and Niu York.[xxxiii] A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces carried out assaults northeast of Bakhmut within the route of Bakhmutske, Verkhnokamianske, and Vesele.[xxxiv] One other Russian milblogger claimed that battles between Ukrainian and Russian forces are ongoing close to Soledar.[xxxv] Geolocated footage posted on December 22 reveals Ukrainian and Russian forces combating southeast of Soledar.[xxxvi] A Russian milblogger claimed that parts of the Wagner Group are advancing within the japanese outskirts of Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces are planning counterattacks to push Russian forces out of Bakhmut.[xxxvii] Ukrainian Jap Group of Forces spokesperson Serhiy Cherevaty reported that Russian forces haven’t carried out operations which have decisively damaged by Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut and that Ukrainian forces have repelled Russian assault teams that had momentarily damaged by into the outskirts of the settlement.[xxxviii] A Russian journalist posted footage on December 22 from Andriivka (10km south of Bakhmut) indicating that Russian forces are within the settlement.[xxxix] The Russian journalist claimed that parts of the Wagner Group had been combating Ukrainian forces within the neighborhood of Klishchiivka, the place Ukrainian forces have reportedly established good defensive positions.[xl]
Russian forces continued offensive operations within the Avdiivka-Donetsk Metropolis space on December 22. The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian assaults inside 27km southwest of Avdiivka close to Krasnohorivka, Nevelske, and Marinka.[xli] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions within the western a part of Marinka.[xlii] The Russian milblogger additionally claimed that Russian forces carried out assaults inside 37km southwest of Avdiivka close to Novomykhailivka, Pervomaiskle, and Vodyane.[xliii]
Russian forces reportedly carried out restricted floor assaults in western Donetsk Oblast on December 22. Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces carried out assaults close to Pavlivka (52km southwest of Donetsk Metropolis) and Prechistivka (59km southwest of Donetsk Metropolis) in western Donetsk Oblast.[xliv] The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) claimed that Russian forces additionally destroyed Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance teams close to Solodke, Donetsk Oblast (32km southwest of Donetsk Metropolis) and Levadne, Zaporizhia Oblast (93km southwest of Donetsk Metropolis).[xlv] The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Russian forces continued routine oblique hearth alongside the road of contact in Donetsk and japanese Zaporizhia oblasts.[xlvi]
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Preserve frontline positions and safe rear areas in opposition to Ukrainian strikes)
Russian officers acknowledged that Russian forces are growing safety measures in left-bank Kherson Oblast and Crimea out of concern of Ukrainian counteroffensive operations. Kherson Oblast Occupation Administration Head Vladimir Saldo claimed that an intensive anti-sabotage operation is underway in occupied Kherson Oblast to counter Ukrainian sabotage teams making an attempt to cross the Dnipro River or the Dnipro-Bug estuary to the left financial institution.[xlvii] Saldo added that Russian forces are continuously engaged in fight with Ukrainian forces within the space of the Kinburn Spit and claimed that Russian forces are repelling Ukrainian makes an attempt to land on the spit. Crimean Occupation Head Sergey Aksyonov raised the extent of the ”terrorist” menace in six Crimean areas alongside Russian floor traces of communication (GLOCs): Armyansk, Dzhankoy and the Dzhankoyskyi Raion, Kerch, Krasnoperekopsk and the Krasnoperekopskyi Raion, and Leninisky Raion.[xlviii]
Russian forces are growing their naval exercise within the Black Sea. Naval News, analyzed satellite tv for pc imagery that confirmed a rise in Russian submarine exercise close to Sevastopol, together with the return of a Kilo-class submarine to base accompanied by a probable Raptor assault boat and a helicopter.[xlix] Naval News famous that Russia has 4 improved Kilo-class submarines within the Black Sea which can be capable of launch Kalibr missiles in opposition to Ukraine.
Russian forces continued to strike Ukrainian positions and civilian infrastructure in right-bank Kherson, Zaporizhia, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts.[l] Ukrainian officers reported that Russian forces are persevering with to shell residential buildings in Kherson Metropolis, and shelled Ochakiv simply north of the Kinburn Spit.[li] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down a Russian Kh-59 missile over Mykolaiv Oblast on December 22.[lii]
Ukrainian forces continued to focus on Russian logistics on the occupied southern territories. The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian manpower focus level in Mykolaivka space, Skadovsk Raion (roughly 60km southeast of Kherson Metropolis), injuring as much as 140 Russian servicemembers and destroying eight vehicles with ammunition.[liii]
Mobilization and Drive Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Broaden fight energy with out conducting common mobilization)
A senior Russian official denied claims of a second wave of mobilization amidst ongoing covert mobilization efforts. Speaker of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation Valentina Matvienko acknowledged on December 21 that there second wave of mobilization.[liv] One other opposition media supply reported that mobilization covertly continues in St. Petersburg, the place residents obtained summonses by way of mail as of at the least December 19.[lv] Whereas Matvienko has no authority on the matter of a second wave of mobilization, continuous proof of ongoing covert mobilization efforts could point out that there will likely be no official announcement of a second wave of mobilization as a result of it’s already occurring. The Kremlin could alternatively work to set info circumstances to conduct a second wave of mobilization – probably below the rubric of staffing new Russian divisions, as Shoigu proposed on December 21[lvi]
The Russian State Duma handed the third studying of a invoice on December 21 that may grant Russian servicemembers leniency on necessary authorized and debt-related deadlines.[lvii] This invoice Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported that comparable deferrals will likely be accessible for individuals serving within the border-protection items of the Russian Federal Safety Service (FSB).[lix] Russian media outlet Dovod reported on December 20 {that a} research of Russian forces volunteers from Vladimir Oblast confirmed that two-thirds of these killed in Ukraine had been debtors.[lx] The Federal Bailiff Service of Russia database (FSSP) reported that 10 out of the 15 lifeless servicemen had money owed totaling greater than 5.7 million rubles, indicating that debt amongst Russian troops is excessive.[lxi] This discovering helps ISW’s earlier evaluation that Russian ”volunteer” unit recruitment focused financially susceptible Russians.[lxii]
An unbiased report reveals rising Russian common resistance to the struggle. An unbiased Russian Human Rights challenge, OVD-Data, and media supply Verstka revealed knowledge on December 21 that reveals that Russian common resistance to the battle in Ukraine has damaged a ten-year document for protests arrests in Russia These sources present that Russian officers have detained greater than 19,440 protestors, given ”administrative punishments” to 4,000 protestors, prosecuted 400 protestors together with 7 minors, and sentenced 50 protestors in courts.[lxiv] Verstka famous that Russian officers have gone to nice lengths to stifle protests and resistance to the battle in Ukraine, together with designating anti-war actions as extremism, however that the anti-war motion continues.[lxv]
Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin is contemplating permitting ladies convicts to affix Wagner Group. The Deputy of the Legislative Meeting of the Sverdlovsk Oblast Vyacheslav Mikhailovich Wegner requested Prigozhin to think about recruiting ladies from penal colonies to take part within the battle with Ukraine as signalmen, docs, nurses, and “to supply all potential help to our servicemen there.”[lxvi] Prigozhin revealed Wegner’s request on December 21 and responded that he completely agrees with Wegner’s thought and hopes to recruit ladies to be ”not solely nurses and signalmen, but additionally sabotage teams and sniper pairs.”[lxvii] Prigozhin acknowledged that he’s going through resistance to the concept however will press on and that Wagner is ”working on this route.”[lxviii] Dr. Vera Miranova, a Russian-American scholar, interpreted Prigozhin’s enthusiasm about together with ladies in Wagner as a possible indicator that Wagner is operating out of male inmates to recruit to the frontlines in Ukraine.[lxix]
Provide shortages are contributing to pressure between the Russian army and Russian safety forces such because the FSB and the Russian Nationwide Guard (Rosgvardia). The Ukrainian Resistance Heart reported on December 22 that pressure is rising between Russian safety forces and the Russian army as a result of Russian safety forces have entry to the availability chain earlier than the army, which means that the safety forces choose the most effective autos and different provides whereas the Russian army receives what’s left over.[lxx] Meduza famous that tensions have solely worsened resulting from an unofficial ban on the transport of sure items, similar to autos, by Crimea.[lxxi] The Ukrainian Army Intelligence Directorate (GUR) shared intercepted audio of a Russian servicemember telling his pal that Russian forces proceed to lack army tools — regardless of what Russian media reveals the Russian inhabitants — and that Russian servicemembers are consequently deserting in droves.[lxxii] A Russian supply additionally reported {that a} unit of mobilized personnel in Moscow ended up in Luhansk Oblast with out provides, meals, private belongings, or the technique of communication.[lxxiii] The supply acknowledged that a number of unit members ended up within the hospital resulting from frostbite.[lxxiv]
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of and annexed areas; forcibly combine Ukrainian civilians into Russian sociocultural, financial, army, and governance programs)
Russian occupation authorities continued to face partisan exercise in occupied territories on December 22. Russian and Ukrainian sources confirmed that Ukrainian partisans killed Russian collaborator and self-proclaimed head of Lyubymivka, Andriy Shepta, in an improvised explosive gadget (IED) assault in Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, on December 22.[lxxv]
Russian occupation authorities are persevering with to set circumstances to forcibly evacuate Ukrainian residents from occupied territories. Ukrainian sources reported on December 22 that Russian forces are intensifying strikes on civilian infrastructure and impairing the operations of social establishments to make civilian life insufferable in Vasylivka, Kakhovka, and Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast.[lxxvi]
Russian officers continued efforts to consolidate administrative management of occupied territories on December 22. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin submitted candidates to function prosecutors in occupied territories to the Russian Federation Council on December 22.[lxxvii]
Russian occupation authorities continued to commandeer civilian hospitals to deal with wounded Russian servicemembers on December 22. Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai acknowledged on December 22 that Russian forces are housing wounded Russian servicemen in a kids’s hospital in occupied Khrustalnyi, Luhansk Oblast, as there’s reportedly no medical consideration availability elsewhere within the neighborhood.[lxxviii]
Word: ISW doesn’t obtain any labeled materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly accessible info, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially accessible satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial knowledge as the premise for these experiences. References to all sources used are offered within the endnotes of every replace.
Correction: An earlier model of this evaluation incorrectly described Naval News as affiliated with the British Royal Navy. Naval News is an unbiased media outlet.
[i] http://kremlin dot ru/occasions/president/information/70170
[ii] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-zelenskiy
[iii] http://kremlin dot ru/occasions/president/information/70170
[iv] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-7
[v] https://www.understandingwar.org/websites/default/information/ISWpercent20Ukrainepercent20Indicatorspercent20Update.pdf
[vi] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/73409
[vii] https://telegra dot ph/Tezisy-vystupleniya-nachalnika-Generalnogo-shtaba-Vooruzhennyh-Sil-Rossijskoj-Federacii–pervogo-zamestitelya-Ministra-oborony-R-12-22 ; https://t.me/mod_russia/22834
[viii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/interactive/2022/ukraine-road-to-war/; https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/u-s-intel-suggests-russia-is-plotting-false-flag-attack-in-ukraine-as-pretext-for-invasion
[ix] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-17
[x] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-21
[xi] https://t.me/mod_russia/22832; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/73383
[xii] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/standing/1604938557646323712
[xiii] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-20
[xiv] https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-russias-wagner-group-bought-north-korean-weapons-ukraine-war-2022-12-22/
[xv] https://www.reuters.com/world/white-house-says-north-korea-supplying-russia-with-artillery-shells-2022-11-02/
[xvi] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/194
[xvii] https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-russias-wagner-group-bought-north-korean-weapons-ukraine-war-2022-12-22/
[xviii] https://www.reuters.com/world/us-says-russias-wagner-group-bought-north-korean-weapons-ukraine-war-2022-12-22/
[xix] https://isw.pub/UkrWar111622 ; https://isw.pub/UKrWar111422 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar110722
[xx] https://tass dot com/politics/1554575
[xxi] https://tass dot com/politics/1554575
[xxii] https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/rosatom-says-talks-with-iaea-zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-safe-zone-continue-2022-12-22/ ; https://tass dot com/politics/1554365
[xxiii] https://isw.pub/UkrWar113022 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar110222
[xxiv] https://isw.pub/UkrWar111822
[xxv] https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/12/22/na-luganskomu-napryamku-znyshheno-93-okupanty-sergij-cherevatyj/
[xxvi] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jYM1ERtdRUqpXDj1oWajmuwhEFAv68ncdCgFC7PG6SqmGqxPzCGaj661oZTpM1XXl
[xxvii] https://t.me/rybar/42209
[xxviii] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jYM1ERtdRUqpXDj1oWajmuwhEFAv68ncdCgFC7PG6SqmGqxPzCGaj661oZTpM1XXl
[xxix] https://t.me/wargonzo/9946
[xxx] https://t.me/rybar/42209
[xxxi] https://t.me/smotri_z/9383
[xxxii] https://t.me/wargonzo/9946
[xxxiii] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jYM1ERtdRUqpXDj1oWajmuwhEFAv68ncdCgFC7PG6SqmGqxPzCGaj661oZTpM1XXl
[xxxiv] https://t.me/wargonzo/9946
[xxxv] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/73385
[xxxvi] https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/standing/1605948831232937984; https://twitter.com/PaulJawin/standing/1605902443820175363
[xxxvii] https://t.me/rybar/42210
[xxxviii] https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-bakhmut-cherevatyy-zsu/32189233.html
[xxxix] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/73387?single ; https://t.me/zhdanovrt/1259 ; https://twitter.com/J_JHelin/standing/1605941174287536128 ;
[xl] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/73387?single ; https://t.me/zhdanovrt/1259
[xli] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jYM1ERtdRUqpXDj1oWajmuwhEFAv68ncdCgFC7PG6SqmGqxPzCGaj661oZTpM1XXl
[xlii] https://t.me/wargonzo/9946
[xliii] https://t.me/wargonzo/9946
[xliv] https://t.me/boris_rozhin/73379 ; https://t.me/wargonzo/9946
[xlv] https://t.me/mod_russia/22829
[xlvi] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0E8A1g9fdWJSij3CX17sURy1d4FPbHr53G8yqmyUrWxY9bVabyW5FUjD6No3Nz1bel ; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jYM1ERtdRUqpXDj1oWajmuwhEFAv68ncdCgFC7PG6SqmGqxPzCGaj661oZTpM1XXl
[xlvii] https://t.me/SALDO_VGA/261
[xlviii] https://t.me/Aksenov82/1927
[xlix] https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/12/sudden-increase-in-russian-navy-activity-in-black-sea/
[l] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0E8A1g9fdWJSij3CX17sURy1d4FPbHr53G8yqmyUrWxY9bVabyW5FUjD6No3Nz1bel
[li] https://t.me/khersonskaODA/2656; https://t.me/hueviyherson/31421; https://www.fb.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0ieoGYmf1EUqLHH9DY6rzKsfrzyMGiMTc8Ucfupc8HKFcAp3iMNur1rHnJEHuiaiDl?__cft__[0]=AZUx5BD8nlIim2zP7lXBn6lBiY5vGTY1Ct-lrRxcvaILl1kteHHzWu5PXYgJ7Hi0f6fNpOBcSIej1OKyONZigMvG6KWWRjBUwpyhWJsEZkjsYVbwUYTHL6GiGPV2B7vS9Hapi569I1Qe8IVR9ZNm1Hk3&__tn__=%2COpercent2CP-R; https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0jYM1ERtdRUqpXDj1oWajmuwhEFAv68ncdCgFC7PG6SqmGqxPzCGaj661oZTpM1XXl; https://t.me/khersonskaODA/2656; https://t.me/khersonskaODA/2665; https://t.me/hueviyherson/31446; https://www.fb.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0ieoGYmf1EUqLHH9DY6rzKsfrzyMGiMTc8Ucfupc8HKFcAp3iMNur1rHnJEHuiaiDl?__cft__[0]=AZUx5BD8nlIim2zP7lXBn6lBiY5vGTY1Ct-lrRxcvaILl1kteHHzWu5PXYgJ7Hi0f6fNpOBcSIej1OKyONZigMvG6KWWRjBUwpyhWJsEZkjsYVbwUYTHL6GiGPV2B7vS9Hapi569I1Qe8IVR9ZNm1Hk3&__tn__=%2COpercent2CP-R ; https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/3782; https://t.me/mykolaivskaODA/3782
[lii] https://www.fb.com/okPivden/posts/pfbid0mssjHwWwXkTno2BjNU9R4xVazKfhT6VcwqUmcE9cEZEqEGhVqvEBDYanypdYJekGl
[liii] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0E8A1g9fdWJSij3CX17sURy1d4FPbHr53G8yqmyUrWxY9bVabyW5FUjD6No3Nz1bel
[liv] https://t.me/news_sirena/8946; https://www.kommersant dot ru/doc/5735295; https://ria.ru/20221221/mobilizatsiya-1840197549.html
[lv] https://t.me/msk_gde/3259; https://notes.citeam.org/mobilization-dec-20-21?1=
[lvi] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-21
[lvii] https://sozd.duma(dot)gov.ru/invoice/223501-8; http://duma.gov(dot)ru/information/56027/
[lviii] http://duma.gov(dot)ru/information/56027/ https://sozd.duma(dot)gov.ru/invoice
[lix] https://meduza(dot)io/en/information/2022/12/21/state-duma-adopts-law-to-pause-legal-proceedings-and-enforcement-action-against-troops-serving-in-ukraine;
[lx] https://www.dovod dot on-line/dve-treti-vladimirskih-dobrovolcev-pogibshih-na-vojne-v-ukraine-okazalis-dolzhnikami/
[lxi] https://fssp dot gov.ru/; https://www.dovod dot on-line/dve-treti-vladimirskih-dobrovolcev-pogibshih-na-vojne-v-ukraine-okazalis-dolzhnikami/
[lxii] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17
[lxiii] https://experiences.ovdinfo dot org/no-to-war#1; https://knowledge.ovdinfo dot org/svodka-antivoennyy-repressiy-devyat-mesyacev-voyny#1 ; https://verstka dot media/rekord-borby-s-protestami-za-vremya-voyny/?tg_rhash=86cf5f61f61288percent3Futm_contentpercent3Dfll
[lxiv] https://experiences dot ovdinfo.org/no-to-war#1; https://knowledge dot ovdinfo.org/svodka-antivoennyy-repressiy-devyat-mesyacev-voyny#1 ; https://experiences dot ovdinfo.org/no-to-war#1; https://verstka dot media/rekord-borby-s-protestami-za-vremya-voyny/?tg_rhash=86cf5f61f61288percent3Futm_contentpercent3Dfll
[lxv] https://verstka dot media/rekord-borby-s-protestami-za-vremya-voyny/?tg_rhash=86cf5f61f61288percent3Futm_contentpercent3Dfll
[lxvi] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/187
[lxvii] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/187
[lxviii] https://t.me/concordgroup_official/187
[lxix] https://twitter.com/vera_mironov/standing/1605957868225646592?s=20&t=V1IQCZMlCqWat7PDU3VWAA
[lxx] https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov.ua/2022/12/22/u-rosiyan-na-hersonskomu-napryamku-konflikty-mizh-vijskovymy-ta-sylovykamy/
[lxxi] https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov.ua/2022/12/22/u-rosiyan-na-hersonskomu-napryamku-konflikty-mizh-vijskovymy-ta-sylovykamy/
[lxxii] https://gur dot gov dot ua/content material/u-nas-mnoho-ochen-500-tykh-ochen-mnoho.html
[lxxiii] https://skat(dot)media/put up/mobilization_moscow; https://t.me/mediaskat/11957
[lxxiv] https://skat(dot)media/put up/mobilization_moscow; https://t.me/mediaskat/11957
[lxxv] https://t.me/grey_zone/16294; https://t.me/VKhersone/9591; https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov.ua/2022/12/22/na-hersonshhyni-likviduvaly-shhe-odnogo-kolaboranta/ ; https://ria dot ru/20221222/shtepa-1840631671.html; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/43918; https://www.fb.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02P3vL5mxyUMjLxa2CmHUYCJFbUXnwpCu5wnZpXd9GhBc7hCfZr5eLENVP8cbuvyi9l; https://www.fb.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid08PHQtREZqG2pjh74B1RvJgXDN9wQK9zvPSC78gr5HZyad2vHQZdVCuwnzhrh5VNXl; https://t.me/readovkanews/49463
[lxxvi] https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov.ua/2022/12/22/rosiyany-gotuyut-masovu-deportacziyu-naselennya-nyzky-naselenyh-punktiv-na-tot/; https://www.fb.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid02GbYiPo6TBU23t4aJwupK72r5frfdBxf9RZBT4cQFwbXEnvidxWPyBypjecJ8EUV4l
[lxxvii] https://t.me/miroshnik_r/9979; https://t.me/vrogov/6682
