December 18, 2pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date every day alongside the static maps current on this report.
ISW is publishing an abbreviated marketing campaign replace at the moment, December 18. This report discusses current efforts by Russian navy management to handle Russian failures in Ukraine, the deliberate December 19 assembly between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, and continued efforts by Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin to legitimize the Wagner Group and bolster his personal repute.
Russian navy management is engaged in a marketing campaign to current itself as a part of an efficient wartime equipment in an effort to handle public notion of Russian failures in Ukraine. The Russian Ministry of Protection (MoD) posted footage on December 18 reportedly of Russian Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu on a working journey to the Southern Army District (SMD) and inspecting the Russian drive grouping within the fight zone in Ukraine.[i] Shoigu reportedly obtained briefings from area commanders and spoke straight with personnel on the frontline paying “particular consideration to the group of complete help for the troops, the circumstances for deploying personnel within the area, in addition to the work of medical and rear items.”[ii] The Russian MoD posted footage on December 17 of Shoigu attending a gathering with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chief of the Basic Workers Valery Gerasimov, and Commander of the Joint Group of Forces in Ukraine Sergei Surovikin to debate close to and mid-term proposals for Russian operations in Ukraine.[iii] Shoigu’s current engagements recommend that the Russian MoD is making an attempt to bolster its repute as an efficient navy organ within the face of constant criticism of its conduct of the struggle by the pro-war neighborhood. The current concerted efforts by Russian navy officers to current themselves as actively engaged in planning and in controlling the struggle effort, particularly within the absence of tangible navy victories in Ukraine, might recommend that Russia is getting ready for a renewed offensive in opposition to Ukraine within the coming months. Shoigu’s go to to the SMD with its concentrate on sustainment and medical help is probably going a part of an effort to point out that the navy management is fixing the Russian navy’s devastating failures in these areas which were the topic of fixed indignant commentary by milbloggers and protests by troopers and their households.
Putin’s deliberate December 19 assembly with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is probably going a part of the identical effort to current proactivity in addition to an effort to set data circumstances for a brand new part of the struggle. Commander of the Ukrainian Mixed Forces Serhiy Nayev commented on the upcoming Putin-Lukashenko assembly and famous that it comes after Putin’s December 17 assembly with Russian navy command to debate each rapid and mid-term targets for the struggle.[iv] Nayev reported that the Ukrainian authorities believes Putin will focus on the broader involvement of Belarusian forces in additional Russian aggression in opposition to Ukraine, which is according to ISW’s forecast for the assembly.[v] Taken in tandem, Putin’s assembly with Russian command, Shoigu’s purported frontline go to, and the Putin-Lukashenko assembly recommend a brand new part within the presentation, planning, and conduct of the struggle and will presage renewed offensive operations in opposition to Ukraine within the coming months.
The capability of the Russian navy, even strengthened by components of the Belarusian armed forces, to organize and conduct efficient large-scale mechanized offensive operations within the subsequent few months stays questionable, as different analysts have noticed.[vi] The manpower Russia is producing from mobilized reservists and from the annual fall conscription cycle is not going to be sufficiently educated to conduct fast and efficient mechanized maneuver this fall. Russia’s struggles to maintain the forces it at the moment has preventing in Ukraine geared up with tanks, artillery, lengthy vary strike, and different important materiel are most unlikely to be resolved in time to equip a big new drive for offensive operations this winter. Putin might however order renewed large-scale offensive operations later this winter, however it is necessary to not overestimate the seemingly capabilities of Russian or mixed Russo-Belarusian forces to conduct them efficiently. ISW continues to evaluate, lastly, that it’s unlikely that Lukashenko will in reality commit the Belarusian navy (which might additionally should be re-equipped) to the invasion of Ukraine.
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin continued efforts to legitimize the Wagner Group as a parastatal armed drive and enhance his personal powerbase by lobbying for elevated state advantages for Wagner Group personnel who fought in Ukraine. Prigozhin complained on December 18 that the native St. Petersburg authorities refused to bury a Wagner Group fighter in burial grounds for contributors of the “particular operation” and as a substitute intend to relegate personal navy firm (PMC) fighters to a separate part, which Prigozhin referred to as humiliating.[vii] Prigozhin launched a letter interesting to Russian State Duma Protection Committee Chairperson Andrey Kartapolov to increase fight veteran standing to Wagner Group fighters.[viii] Some Russian milbloggers expressed help for this measure, claiming that any Russian citizen who fights and dies in Ukraine deserves to be buried with full navy honors.[ix] Prigozhin’s attraction doesn’t embrace fighters of different PMCs, nevertheless.[x] Prigozhin beforehand expressed his help for the same measure on November 8 when the State Duma thought of and handed a invoice extending fight veteran standing to Russian navy volunteers.[xi] Prigozhin has notably feuded with Russian regional authorities in Belgorod Oblast and St. Petersburg, as ISW has beforehand reported.[xii]
Prigozhin’s bid for elevated recognition comes as experiences of systematic executions inside Wagner forces emerge, suggesting that Wagner management is keen to go to nice lengths to protect the Wagner Group’s picture as a extremely disciplined drive.[xiii] Russian opposition outlet The Insider reported on December 16 that Wagner forces routinely execute deserters and people who refuse to struggle, particularly these recruited from penal colonies.[xiv] The Insider reported that Wagner has its personal inner safety forces to conduct the executions and that one commander – who commanded executed POW Yevgeny Nuzhin – personally witnessed a number of executions.[xv] Prigozhin beforehand expressed public help for Nuzhin’s execution, as ISW has beforehand reported.[xvi] Such experiences additionally point out that Wagner Group forces wrestle with morale and self-discipline points amongst new recruits just like these of typical Russian forces however fight it with harsh punishments somewhat than the obfuscation and makes an attempt to appease dissatisfied recruits that characterize the Russian MoD’s basic method.
Key inflections in ongoing navy operations on December 18:
- Ukrainian Major Army Intelligence Directorate (GUR) consultant Andriy Yusov reported that the Russian navy obtained a brand new batch of Iranian-made drones and continues to barter with Iran on the acquisition of ballistic missile methods.[xvii]
- Ukrainian and Russian sources reported that positional preventing continued alongside the Svatove-Kremmina line.[xviii]
- Ukrainian and Russian sources reported ongoing preventing within the outskirts of Bakhmut and to the northeast and south of the town.[xix] The Russian Ministry of Protection claimed that Russian forces captured Yakovlivka, Donetsk Oblast, northeast of Soledar.[xx]
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces dislodged Russian forces from long-held positions close to Bakhmut.[xxi]
- A Ukrainian official said that Russian forces are redeploying items from the east (left) financial institution of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast and that it’s too early to inform whether or not Russian forces are withdrawing.[xxii] Russian and Ukrainian forces continued routine artillery and rocket strikes throughout the Dnipro River.[xxiii]
- The Ukrainian Basic Workers reported that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian drive concentrations and two ammunition depots in Zaporizhia Oblast on December 16, injuring 150 personnel and destroying 10 items of apparatus.[xxiv] Ukrainian Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said that Russian forces are putting dragon’s enamel anti-tank defenses in Melitopol.[xxv]
- Russian forces and occupation authorities proceed to wrestle to handle a extreme scarcity of medical personnel and provides.[xxvi]
View Citations
