August 9, 7:45 pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day alongside the static maps current on this report.
The Ukrainian Normal Employees made no point out of Izyum in its 1800 situational report on August 9, nor did different outstanding Ukrainian sources regardless of Western sources’ claims of an ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive on this space. This silence represents a noteworthy departure from earlier Ukrainian protection of the Kharkiv-Donetsk axis.
Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a collection of enormous explosions deep inside Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast and Crimea on August 9, however Ukrainian officers haven’t claimed accountability for them as of the time of this publication. Social media customers reported witnessing 12 loud explosions on the Saky airbase in Novofedorivka on the Crimean western coast.[1] Social media footage solely confirmed the massive cloud of smoke and the aftermath of the incident.[2] Social media footage additionally confirmed a big smoke cloud close to Novooleksiivka in Henichensk district, within the neighborhood of the Kherson Oblast-Crimean border.[3] Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported that explosions occurred on the Russian ammunition base however famous that there isn’t a official affirmation of Ukrainian involvement within the incident.[4]
The Russian Protection Ministry claimed that a number of plane munitions detonated within the storage areas of the Saky airbase resulting from poor fireplace protocol, rejecting stories that Ukrainian strikes or sabotage on the army facility prompted the explosions.[5] The Russian Protection Ministry added that the incident didn’t end in any casualties or injury to Russian aviation tools. The Russian Well being Ministry claimed that 5 civilians have been wounded within the incident, nevertheless.[6] Social media footage additionally confirmed firefighters extinguishing a burning airplane, which additionally contradicts the unique Russian Protection Ministry declare.[7] Russian-appointed Head of Crimea Sergey Aksyenov claimed that Russian officers are solely evacuating just a few residents in properties close to the airbase, however social media footage confirmed lengthy visitors jams approaching the Crimean bridge and the departure of a number of minibusses, reportedly with evacuees.[8] Russian propagandist Margarita Simonyan claimed that the incident was a results of sabotage relatively than a missile or rocket strike.[9] Russian milbloggers voiced differing opinions concerning the origin of the strike, with some speculating that Ukrainian forces used US-provided long-range military tactical missile methods (ATACMS).[10] Ukrainian forces should not have the ATACMS methods, nevertheless.
The Kremlin has little incentive to accuse Ukraine of conducting strikes that prompted the injury since such strikes would exhibit the ineffectiveness of Russian air protection methods, which the Ukrainian sinking of the Moskva had already revealed. ISW doesn’t but have any foundation independently to evaluate the exact explanation for the explosions. The obvious simultaneity of explosions at two distinct services seemingly guidelines out the official Russian model of unintended fireplace, but it surely doesn’t rule out both sabotage or long-range missile strike. Ukraine may have modified its Neptune missiles for land-attack use (because the Russians have finished with each anti-shipping and anti-aircraft missiles), however there isn’t a proof to help this speculation right now.
Russia launched an Iranian satellite tv for pc into orbit on August 9 that might be used to offer army intelligence on Ukraine. Iranian Area Company Head Hassan Salariyeh acknowledged that the remote-sensing satellite tv for pc, Khayyam, has a one-meter digicam decision.[11] Khayyam has already begun broadcasting telemetry information.[12] Iranian officers have denied that one other state could have entry to satellite tv for pc feed at any level, however Western intelligence officers have claimed that Russian authorities will keep entry.[13]
Observe: ISW doesn’t obtain any labeled materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly out there data, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially out there satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the idea for these stories. References to all sources used are supplied within the endnotes of every replace.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces performed floor assaults to the southeast of Siversk and round Bakhmut.
- Russian forces performed floor assaults north of Donetsk Metropolis and southwest of Donetsk Metropolis close to the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border.
- A number of giant explosions hit Russian positions close to Sevastopol and north of Crimea, however Russia didn’t blame Ukraine for them and Ukraine has not taken credit score for them.
- Russia launched a surveillance satellite tv for pc for Iran.
- Western media has reported {that a} Ukrainian counteroffensive is underway close to Izyum, however the Ukrainian Normal Employees was notably utterly silent in regards to the space in its night report.
- Russian sources recommended that recently-formed volunteer battalions are chargeable for a lot of the Izyum sector.
- Ukrainian officers claimed that Russian forces continued to fireside artillery methods from the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant.
- Russian officers are persevering with to take outstanding roles in making ready for the sham referenda in Russian-occupied areas regardless of Kremlin claims that Russia isn’t conducting the referenda.
We don’t report intimately on Russian warfare crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We’ll proceed to judge and report on the consequences of those prison actions on the Ukrainian army and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity despite the fact that we don’t describe them in these stories.
- Fundamental Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and two supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Fundamental Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops within the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
- Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Fundamental Effort—Jap Ukraine
Subordinate Fundamental Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Jap Ukraine and seize everything of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
The Ukrainian Normal Employees and native officers reported that Russian forces continued to shell settlements north, west, and south of Izyum and alongside the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border within the Slovyansk course on August 9.[14]
Russian forces performed restricted floor assaults east of Siversk on August 9. Ukrainian artillery pressured Russian forces to retreat from an tried floor assault within the Spirne space (13 km southeast of Siversk).[15] Russian forces equally retreated after a reconnaissance-in-force effort close to Ivano-Darivka (10 km southeast of Siversk) following Ukrainian bombardment.[16] Russian troops continued to shell Siversk and close by settlements and focused Hryhorivka with an airstrike.[17]
Russian forces performed a number of floor assaults within the Bakhmut space on August 9. The Ukrainian Normal Employees acknowledged that Russian forces led {a partially} profitable advance within the course of Vershyna (13 km southeast of Bakhmut) in addition to failed offensive operations towards Yakovlivka, Bakhmut, and Zaitseve.[18] Ukrainian forces repelled Russian reconnaissance-in-force efforts round Pidhorodne (5 km northeast of Bakhmut), Vesele (10 km northeast of Soledar), Yakovlivka (6 km northeast of Soledar), Soledar, and Bakhmut.[19] Russian media amplified claims from Luhansk Folks’s Republic (LNR) Deputy Inner Minister Vitaly Kiselev that the LNR’s sixth Cossack Regiment has partially occupied and held parts of the Knauf Gips Donbas gypsum manufacturing facility southeast of Soledar since an unspecified date.[20] ISW can’t independently confirm these claims, nevertheless. The UK Ministry of Protection assessed that Russian forces have superior solely about 10 km within the Bakhmut course over the previous 30 days, and these incremental advances alongside the Bakhmut axis represent Russia’s most profitable entrance alongside the Donbas axis.[21] Russian forces continued shelling of and airstrikes on settlements within the Bakhmut course on August 9.[22]
Russian forces continued floor assaults northwest of Donetsk Metropolis on August 9. The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Russian forces performed failed offensive operations close to Krasnohorivka (16 km north of Donetsk Metropolis), Avdiivka (15 km north of Donetsk Metropolis), and Pisky (11 km northwest of Donetsk Metropolis).[23] Russian milbloggers continued to say Russian management of Pisky on August 9 however there’s inadequate foundation to increase the assessed Russian management from central Pisky.[24] DNR officers additionally claimed unspecified features within the Avdiivka course, which ISW can’t verify.[25] Ukrainian forces neutralized Russian reconnaissance-in-force makes an attempt towards the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border close to Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka (75 km west of Donetsk Metropolis).[26] Russian-led forces continued to focus on settlements throughout southwestern Donetsk with artillery and airstrikes.[27]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Defend floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces performed no confirmed floor assaults close to Kharkiv Metropolis on August 9. Russian forces continued energetic preventing alongside present traces and performed an airstrike close to Verkhniy Saltiv.[28] The Ukrainian Normal Employees additionally famous continued Russian UAV aerial reconnaissance operations.[29] Russian forces continued routine shelling of Kharkiv Metropolis and surrounding settlements with tanks, tube and rocket artillery, and unspecified missiles.[30]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts towards Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces maintained defensive positions alongside the southern frontline and didn’t conduct offensive operations on August 9. The Ukrainian Normal Employees reported that Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes at Bila Krynytsya and Andriivka, within the neighborhood of the Ukrainian bridgehead close to the Inhulets River, and on Ukrainian positions in Olhine and Osokorkivka close to the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border.[31] Russian forces additionally performed aerial reconnaissance in northern Kherson Oblast and continued artillery fireplace alongside the road of contact within the area.[32] The Ukrainian Fundamental Army Intelligence (GUR) intercepted a Russian servicemen’s name by which he acknowledged that Russian forces working in Kherson Oblast should not have sufficient manpower to conduct an offensive operation.[33] Mykolaiv Oblast officers additionally reported that Russian forces shelled the outskirts of Mykolaiv Metropolis and launched rockets from the Uragan a number of launch rocket methods (MLRS) at Bereznehuvate, roughly 20 km northwest of the Ukrainian bridgehead.[34]
Russian forces are reportedly persevering with to neglect the Zaporizhia Oblast frontline in favor of Donetsk and Kherson Oblast efforts. Zaporizhia Oblast Army Administration Head Oleksandr Starukh famous that Russian forces are periodically concentrating forces in Zaporizhia Oblast to redistribute them to Donetsk or Kherson Oblast instructions.[35] Starukh added that Ukrainian army command assesses a low danger of Russian offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast however specified that fight operations proceed on the Zaporizhia-Donetsk Oblast border. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command didn’t report any modifications within the Russian troop composition in Kherson Oblast on August 9.[36]
Ukrainian officers maintained that Russian forces are persevering with to fireside utilizing artillery methods located on the territory of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (NPP). The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces fired 80 Grad MLRS rockets at Nikopol from firing positions on the other financial institution of the Kakhovka Reservoir.[37] Starukh acknowledged that Russian forces proceed to make use of the territory of the Zaporizhzhia NPP to shell Nikopol and use the plant as a nuclear protect.[38]
Ukrainian officers and social media customers reported a number of explosions at Russian army bases and ammunition depots throughout the Southern Axis on August 8 and August 9. Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported {that a} Russian ammunition depot suffered secondary explosions for over an hour and a half in Novooleksiivka close to Henichensk (roughly 35 km north of the Crimean border).[39] Russian and Ukrainian sources reported a collection of explosions on the Russian Saky airbase in occupied Novofedorivka, western Crimean coast.[40] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov additionally reported 10 explosions at Russian army bases within the western a part of Melitopol.[41] Ukrainian officers haven’t taken accountability for the strikes on Russian army infrastructure as of the time of this publication. The Southern Operational Command solely confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions in Snihurivka (roughly 31 km east of Mykolaiv Metropolis) and two command posts within the Berislav and Khersonskyi districts.[42]
Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Increase fight energy with out conducting common mobilization)
Kremlin-affiliated outlet Kommersant reported that Russian federal topics (areas) fashioned over 40 volunteer battalions, confirming (and/or repeating) ISW’s assessments of Russian regional drive technology campaigns.[43] ISW has beforehand recognized that federal topics fashioned 41 volunteer battalions and items all through Russia. Kommersant notably didn’t report on the formation of the Moscow-based “Sobyaninskyi” Regiment that started recruitment on July 1.[44] Kommersant confirmed that St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hometown, is forming three volunteer battalions “Kronstandt,” ”Neva,” and “Pavlovsk” completely composed of town’s residents. St. Petersburg outlet “Fontanka” beforehand reported that one of many St. Petersburg battalions is an artillery unit.[45] Kommersant recognized three new volunteer items from Tomsk, Amur, and Irkutsk Oblasts: Tomsk Oblast is forming the “Troyan” Battalion, Irkutsk Oblast is recruiting for the “Angara” Battalion, and Amur Oblast is anticipating to recruit 400-500 volunteers for the “Amurskyi” Motorized Rifle Battalion.
Kommersant additionally recognized the Russian Protection Ministry, Russian federal topic governments, and present army items as chargeable for supplying and making ready particular person volunteer battalions. Within the instance of the Primorskiy Krai-based “Tigr” Volunteer Battalion, the Russian Pacific Fleet offers recruits with ammunition and physique armor, Primorskiy Krai provides garments and particular tools corresponding to radios, and the Russian Protection Ministry dispenses weapons. If this sample of accountability distribution is widespread for all federal topics, then some poorer federal topics are seemingly to offer decrease high quality particular tools than different areas. Kommersant’s interview with an unnamed Russian federal official additional means that the Russian Protection Ministry or the Kremlin ordered federal topics to set informational and monetary circumstances for the institution of the volunteer items, as ISW assessed on July 13.[46]
Kommersant’s report additional showcases the involvement of the Kuban Cossack Host (Army) in the course of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and in its drive technology efforts. The report famous that about 1,200 Cossacks are taking part within the Russian hostilities in Ukraine. Kommersant reported that Krasnodar Krai fashioned extra army items known as “Zakharia Chepigi” and ”Kuban” primarily based on the Kuban Cossack Host in April and Could, respectively. The Union of Cossack Warriors of Russia and Overseas additionally introduced the reorganization of the “Don” Cossack Detachment right into a brigade joint with the “Terek” Battalion and composed of “Kuban” and “Yenisey” items. The “Don” Detachment has performed offensive operations round Velyka Komyshuvakha (southwest of Izyum) since no less than April and the “Terek” Battalion recruited extra volunteers ages 20 to 63 from Stavropol Krai and Northern Caucasus.[47] The “Terek” Battalion has already reportedly despatched 500 Cossacks to Donbas.[48] “Yermak” and “Tavrida” Cossack items are additionally reportedly conducting fight operations in Ukraine.
The Kremlin or Russian Protection Ministry are seemingly exploiting leaders of immigrant and ethnic organizations to generate forces for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Chairman of the “Society of Central Asian Uzbeks of Perm Krai” Jahongir Jalolov introduced that Uzbek nationals residing or working in Perm Krai ought to type the “Amir Timur” Volunteer Battalion in Perm Krai to help Russian forces in Ukraine.[49] Jalolov famous that Uzbeks owe their livelihoods in Russia to the Russian folks, and therefore ought to take part within the particular army operation. ISW has beforehand reported that Russian forces have been reportedly recruiting Central Asian immigrants to the Moscow-based “Sobyaninskyi” Regiment in alternate for Russian citizenship and monetary compensation.[50]
Russian sources moreover introduced a recruitment effort to bolster the “Russian Legion”—a volunteer battalion at the moment working on the Donetsk-Kharkiv Oblast border—as of August 9.[51] The “Russian Legion” is reportedly fashioned of parts of the Russian Fight Army Reserve (BARS)—an effort aimed to determine an energetic reserve by recruiting volunteer reservists for three-year contract service.[52] This unit has reportedly fought on the Izyum axis close to Pasika, Studenok, and Bohorodychne with out rotation for 3 months.[53] The Russian Legion’s commander reportedly has been preventing in japanese Ukraine since 2014.[54] The tone of the put up means that common items of the Russian army haven’t fought in a big a part of this frontline sector just lately, indicating that the Russian army is leveraging recently-formed volunteer items to carry out frontline preventing in some areas, versus reinforcing common army items.
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set circumstances for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)
Russian occupation officers are trying to set circumstances for the façade of a standard faculty yr in occupied components of Ukraine however are seemingly going through resistance from mother and father and faculty officers. The Ukrainian head of the Kherson Regional Administration, Yaroslav Yanushkevych, reported on August 9 that Russian occupation officers in Kherson Oblast are providing mother and father roughly 4,000 hryvnias a month (about 108 USD) to enroll their kids in Russian-run colleges for the autumn time period.[55] An advisor to Yanushkevych, Serhiy Khlan, reported on August 9 that occupation officers are struggling to seek out areas to host polling stations for the sham annexation referendum in Kherson and are pressuring colleges and faculty principals to assist arrange the referendum and to permit colleges for use as polling stations.[56]
Russian officers are more and more overtly involving themselves within the deliberate pseudo-referenda that the Kremlin will use to say that Russia has a authentic declare to annex occupied Ukrainian territory regardless of Kremlin Spokesman Dmitrii Peskov’s declare that it isn’t Russians who’re holding the referendum.[57] The Russian governor of Sevastopol in occupied Crimea, Mikhail Razvozhaev, introduced on August 9 that Sevastopol officers will monitor the referendum in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast and that Sevastopol organizers are already at work all through Zaporizhia.[58] The Sevastopol organizers will seemingly be part of volunteers and workers from Russian President Vladimir Putin’s United Russia social gathering, who’ve been helping occupation administrations and making ready for the sham referendum in occupied Ukrainian territories since April.[59] The Russian-appointed head of the Zaporizhia Occupation Administration, Yevheny Balitsky, introduced the start of formal preparations for the annexation referendum on August 8 and instructed Russian media on August 9 that he’s “almost sure” that Zaporizhia will “return to” Russia following the sham referendum.[60] Russian forces occupy about three-quarters of Zaporizhia Oblast’s territory as of August 9, encompassing the properties of about half of the inhabitants of the oblast.
Ukraine’s Heart for Strategic Communications introduced on August 9 that the Kremlin has crossed a “purple line” by formally saying the referendum in Zaporizhia, waging an “aggressive, colonial warfare” to annex Ukrainian territories looking for the “destruction of Ukraine’s statehood.”[61] The Heart urged all residents to withstand the occupation and famous that “Russia has made a guess on Melitopol [in Zaporizhia Oblast], not on Kherson” as a result of the Kremlin “understands the inevitability of shedding their bridgehead on the precise financial institution of the Dnipro [river].” The Heart promised that Ukrainian forces will liberate Zaporizhia, Kherson, and all different occupied territories.
View Citations
