AFGHANISTAN, August 6 – Kateryna Stepanenko, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan
August 6, 9 pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date day by day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Russian and Ukrainian forces traded accusations of harmful shelling on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (NPP) on August 6 persevering with the trade of accusations ISW reported on August 5.[1] ISW can’t independently decide which occasion is answerable for the incident. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the alleged Russian shelling as an “open, brazen crime” and “an act of terror.”[2] He referred to as on the worldwide neighborhood to designate Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism and to sanction Russia’s nuclear business. [3] Either side claimed that the shelling prompted a hearth on the hydrogen station on the plant. The Russian-appointed head of the Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Administration, Evgeniy Balitskyi, claimed on August 5 that Ukrainian forces “determined to place the entire of Europe getting ready to a nuclear disaster” by shelling the plant.[4] The Ukrainian head of the Zaporizhia Oblast Army Administration, Oleksandr Starukh, claimed on August 6 that Russian forces are attempting to “provoke” Ukrainians into shelling the NPP to make the West hesitant to supply weapons to Ukraine.[5]
A Russian opposition outlet reported that Russian forces are storing explosives and ammunition across the nuclear energy plant. The Insider reported on August 5 {that a} supply claimed Russian forces mined the turbine room of vitality block 1 of the NPP round August 2.[6] A separate supply claimed that about 500 Russian troopers, in addition to armored personnel carriers and anti-aircraft weapons, had been stationed inside the plant and that Russian forces mined the world across the plant. The second supply stated that Russian forces “retailer mines and ammunition within the fast neighborhood of the vitality blocks, underneath trestles, with among the ammunition saved contained in the vitality block.” The second supply was uncertain “whether or not the vitality block has been mined or is just used for storing explosives.” The Insider reported that Russian forces established Grad rocket batteries close to the village of Vodyane, roughly 4 km from the NPP reactors (and roughly 2 km from the spent gasoline containment items on the plant). Ukrainian channels and officers had reported in mid-July that Russian forces had been firing on Nikopol—the Ukrainian city simply throughout the river from the NPP—from close to the nuclear reactors at Zaporizhzhia NPP.[7] Ukraine’s Southern Army Command has subsequently reported that Russian forces have recurrently shelled Nikopol with Grad rockets, damaging 47 homes on August 5 and 6.[8]
ISW beforehand assessed on August 3 that Russian forces are seemingly utilizing the NPP to play on Western fears of a nuclear catastrophe in Ukraine in an effort to degrade Western will to supply army assist to a Ukrainian counteroffensive, whereas additionally successfully utilizing the plant as a nuclear defend to stop Ukrainian strikes on Russian forces and gear.[9]
Be aware: ISW doesn’t obtain any categorized materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly obtainable info, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially obtainable satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial knowledge as the idea for these experiences. References to all sources used are supplied within the endnotes of every replace.
Key Takeaways
- A Russian opposition outlet reported that Russian forces are storing explosives and mines in and round Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant and should have mined components of the plant. Russian forces might also be firing rockets at Ukrainian positions from inside or close to the plant.
- Russian forces performed restricted floor assaults northwest of Slovyansk and east and south of Bakhmut.
- Russian forces performed a sequence of floor assaults to try to interrupt by means of Ukrainian defensive traces north, west, and south of Donetsk Metropolis.
- Russian forces didn’t conduct offensive operations in southern Ukraine and continued to undertake defensive measures.
- Ongoing Ukrainian partisan exercise and civilian resistance are irritating Russian occupation forces as Russian occupation authorities proceed to arrange for the mixing of occupied territories into the Russian Federation following their upcoming sham annexation referenda.
- Russian state media advocated for labor camps, repressions, and taking pictures of Ukrainian partisans and civilians that refused to cooperate with Russian-appointed officers in occupied Ukrainian territories.
We don’t report intimately on Russian conflict crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t immediately have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to judge and report on the results of those prison actions on the Ukrainian army and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity regardless that we don’t describe them in these experiences.
- Major Effort—Japanese Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and two supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Major Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops within the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
- Mobilization and Drive Technology Efforts
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Major Effort—Japanese Ukraine
Subordinate Major Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in Japanese Ukraine and seize the whole lot of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces performed a restricted floor assault northwest of Slovyansk and in any other case shelled settlements alongside the Izyum-Slovyansk line on August 6. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian troops tried and didn’t advance on the western outskirts of Bohorodychne, about 17km northwest of Slovyansk.[10] Russian forces continued artillery strikes on settlements alongside the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border, together with Mazanivka, Adamivka, Kurulka, Dibrovne, Dovhenke, Krasnopillya, and Dolyna.[11]
Russian forces didn’t conduct any confirmed floor assaults on Siversk and continued to shell Siversk and surrounding settlements on August 6.[12] Social media posted to Twitter on August 5 confirmed parts of the Russian fifty fifth Motorized Rifle Brigade of the forty first Mixed Arms Army of the Central Army district reportedly working within the course of Siversk.[13] This imagery seemingly confirms that parts of Russian Colonel Normal Aleksandr Lapin’s “Central Group” of forces are nonetheless working in northeastern Donetsk Oblast close to the Luhansk Oblast border, as ISW has beforehand reported.[14]
Russian drive performed a sequence of floor assaults east and south of Bakhmut on August 6. The Ukrainian Normal Workers said that Russian troops tried to realize extra advantageous tactical positions round Stryapivka, Bakhmutske, Soledar, Yakovlivka, Volodymyrivka, and Pokrovske, settlements alongside the jap arc of Bakhmut and all inside 12km of the outskirts of Bakhmut.[15] Russian troops moreover continued localized floor assaults south of Bakhmut round Vidrozhennya, Vershyna, Kodema, and Zaitseve and in any other case shelled Bakhmut and surrounding settlements to assist ongoing floor operations.[16] Geolocated footage posted by the Donetsk Individuals’s Republic (DNR) militia forces signifies that Russian forces have seemingly captured Travneve, a small settlement about 17km south of Bakhmut.[17]
Russian forces performed a sequence of floor assaults in an try to interrupt by means of Ukrainian traces of protection within the Avdiivka-Donetsk Metropolis space on August 6. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to penetrate Ukrainian defenses north of Donetsk Metropolis within the Spartak-Avdiivka, Novoselivka Druha-Krasnohorivka, and Lozove-Nevelske instructions.[18] Russian troops additionally tried to push west of their positions close to Oleksandrivka in the direction of Maryinka, about 5km west of the Petrovskyi district of Donetsk Metropolis.[19] Ukrainian sources moreover refuted Russian claims that Russian forces have full management over Pisky, and geolocated footage of Donetsk Individuals’s Republic (DNR) troopers in Pisky signifies that Russian troops seemingly solely management the southeastern outskirts of Pisky.[20]
Russian forces performed a number of restricted floor assaults southwest of Donetsk Metropolis within the course of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border on August 6. The Ukrainian Normal Workers said that Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to interrupt by means of Ukrainian defenses round Krylivka, Pavlivka, Novomaiorske, and Prechystivka- all southwest of Donetsk Metropolis and inside 30km of the Zaporizhia Oblast border.[21] Russian forces continued air and artillery strikes within the space between Donetsk Metropolis and the oblast border.[22]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Defend floor traces of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces didn’t conduct any confirmed floor assaults in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast and shelled Kharkiv Metropolis and surrounding settlements on August 6.[23]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts towards Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces didn’t conduct offensive operations in southern Ukraine and centered on defending their occupied positions with aviation and artillery. Ukrainian army officers reported that Russian forces continued to launch airstrikes close to Andriivka, located on the jap Inhulets River’s financial institution close to the Ukrainian bridgehead.[24] Russian forces additionally continued aerial reconnaissance close to the bridgehead and maintained artillery fireplace alongside the contact line in Kherson Oblast.[25] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command said that Russian forces are rotating manpower and redistributing gear in unspecified instructions in Kherson Oblast however famous that the composition of Russian troops within the space has not modified as of August 5.[26] Russian forces launched rockets at Nikopol, Zaporizhia Metropolis, and Mykolaiv Metropolis from MLRS methods.[27] Social media footage additionally confirmed Russian forces transporting a Buk air protection system close to Pryazovske, southeast of Melitopol, on an unspecified date.[28]
Ukrainian army officers confirmed a number of strikes at Russian strongholds and ammunition depots all through Kherson Oblast. The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command said that Ukrainian missile items destroyed two Russian management factors belonging to the 76th Airborne Assault Division and the forty ninth Mixed Arms Army in Chornobaivka (about 5km northwest of Kherson Metropolis), a command and remark put up of an unspecified battalion tactical group (BTG) in Bruskinske alongside the T2207 freeway, and an ammunition depot in Oleshky southeast of Kherson Metropolis.[29] Ukrainian native officers famous that Russian forces are persevering with to build up massive portions of army gear in Oleshky, seemingly in preparation to defend logistics routes to Kherson Metropolis and to ascertain defensive positions on the left financial institution of Dnipro River.[30] Social media customers revealed footage of a big smoke cloud coming from Skadovsk (roughly 62km south of Kherson Metropolis), however Ukrainian officers haven’t confirmed any Ukrainian assault on that location as of the time of this publication.[31]
Mobilization and Drive Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Broaden fight energy with out conducting basic mobilization)
Current Russian army items and the Russian Nationwide Guard (Rosgvardia) are persevering with to recruit volunteers to strengthen current army items. Caucasus region-focused outlet Kavkaz Uzel reported that Russian forces distributed leaflets and established a day-long recruitment drive in Nazran, Republic of Ingushetia, to recruit volunteers for the prevailing 503rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 58th Mixed Arms Army.[32] Russian forces reconstituted the 503rd Regiment in July 2021, after it had been dismantled in 2009 through the army reforms.[33] Rosgvardia additionally posted job listings for riflemen and drivers within the Republic of Ingushetia providing beginning month-to-month salaries of 45,000 to 50,000 rubles (about $750 to $820) with a requirement to be able to take part within the “particular army operation” in Ukraine. The Republic of Dagestan additionally posted explosives skilled positions with a requirement for “a want to serve within the Russian Armed Forces.” Stavropol and Krasnoyarskiy Krai each listed on employment portals a number of army positions corresponding to UAV operator with the requirement to journey for ”enterprise journeys.” Such recruitment drives point out that Russian leaders are searching for to take advantage of totally different safety providers to generate extra volunteers for the ”particular army operation.” The drives additionally recommend that volunteer recruitment will not be restricted to newly forming volunteer items.
ISW recognized further Russian federal topics (areas) which can be recruiting personnel for volunteer battalions to take part within the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Native media retailers reported that Khanty-Mansi Okrug and Voronezh and Smolensk Oblasts are forming volunteer battalions and providing one-time enlistment funds ranging between 100,000 and 250,000 rubles (about $1,650 to $4,130).[34] Smolensk Oblast officers created the ”Feniks” volunteer battalion Telegram channel on July 27 and introduced recruitment of males ages 18 to 60 within the area for a minimal six-month service interval.[35] Khanty-Mansi Okrug introduced the formation of two unnamed volunteer battalions additionally requiring a minimal contract time interval of six months.[36] Voronezh Oblast promised recruits of an unspecified volunteer battalion month-to-month salaries of not less than 256,000 rubles (about $4,200) if the servicemen serve within the fight zone.[37]
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set situations for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)
Ongoing Ukrainian partisan exercise and civilian resistance are irritating Russian occupation forces and should result in further crackdowns on occupied civilians. Unknown folks shot and killed the deputy head of the Russian administration in control of the housing and utility sector in Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Vitaly Gura, on August 5.[38] Gura died within the hospital on August 6. Russian milblogger Daniil Bezsonov claimed that Ukrainian partisans had been accountable.[39] Ukrainian Advisor to the Kherson Army Administration Serhiy Khan warned that ”Gura’s destiny will attain all collaborators” however didn’t immediately attribute the assault to partisans.[40] Ukrainian Telegram channel MariupolNow reported that partisans took duty for an explosion on the Russian-controlled police station in Berdyansk, Zaporizhia Oblast on August 6.[41] The Ukrainian Resistance Heart reported on August 4 that Russian occupation forces harassed the employees of a development supplies retailer in occupied Kherson, however that the employees refused to work for Russian occupation forces.[42] The Ukrainian Resistance Heart additionally reported each assaults on August 6 and stated “The Heart for Nationwide Resistance notes that collaborationism is unhealthy in your well being.”[43]
Russian state media advocated for the introduction of labor camps, repression, and the taking pictures of Ukrainian partisans and civilians who refuse to cooperate with Russian-appointed officers in occupied Ukrainian territories. Kremlin-affiliated outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda host Sergey Mardan inspired an unnamed occupation authority that he interviewed on his present to recreate gulags (the infamous Soviet jail/labor camp system), confiscate personal property, and shoot native academics and partisans for refusing to cooperate with Russian-appointed authorities.[44] The bulk proprietor of Komsomolskaya Pravda, Sergey Rudnov, is the son of Oleg Rudnov, a childhood pal of Russian President Vladimir Putin.[45] The unnamed occupation official additionally acknowledged that Russian authorities have been dealing with extreme challenges with partisan exercise, particularly noting an event when partisans disabled the digital management items of unspecified gear. The interview confirms Ukrainian official experiences of partisan exercise and the refusal of Ukrainian specialists to cooperate with occupation authorities.
In the meantime, Russian occupation forces proceed to arrange for the mixing of occupied territories into the Russian Federation following their sham annexation referenda. The Ukrainian Resistance Heart reported on August 6 that Russian authorities seized the Suspline Kherson TV department, more likely to set up pro-Russian broadcasters upfront of the referenda, and renamed it the Tavriia channel.[46] The Tavriia (or Tauride) Gubernia was a historic province of the Russian Empire and is a potential administrative construction for components of occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts that might fold them right into a Russian republic that will additionally embrace Russian-occupied Crimea.[47] The Heart reported that almost all of the TV channel employees refused to cooperate, so Russian forces appointed a ”cleansing woman” as channel director and imported propagandists from St Petersburg to open a ”media college” to show all ”keen” folks easy methods to be journalists, cameramen, and editors for the occupation administration-run channel. Russian state-affiliated information outlet TASS reported that Russian occupation forces will start issuing Russian license plates in Kherson Oblast with area code 184 and would require residents to have Russian passports to amass authorized license plates.[48] ISW beforehand reported that Russian occupation authorities are dramatically increasing their passportization of occupied Ukrainian territories by requiring Ukrainian civilians to amass Russian passports to take part in primary life actions.[49] The Russian head of the Zaporizhia Occupation Administration, Yevheny Balitsky, said on August 5 that the Zaporizhian rail traces will grow to be “a part of an enormous community of Russian railways,” demonstrating Russian plans for more and more overt integration with the Russian Federation.[50]
[1] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass…
[2] https://www.president dot gov dot ua/en/information/sho-bilshe-nashogo-zerna-bude-na-svitovomu-rinku-menshim-bud-76905
[3] https://tass dot ru/armiya-i-opk/15409285
[4] https://t.me/BalitskyVGA/158
[5] https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/11346; https://t.me/orlovdmytroEn/770
[6] https://theins dot ru/en/information/253868
[7] https://24tv dot ua/nikopol-obstrili-artileriyi-zdiysnyuyut-teritoriyi-zaporizkoyi_n2099012; https://zona dot media/article/2022/08/05/nuclear; https://t.me/energoatom_ua/8174; ; https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3529711-na-zaes-rosiani-vstanovluut-raketni-kompleksi-z-akih-obstriluut-nikopol.html;; https://lb dot ua/society/2022/07/15/523298_rosiyani_obstrilyuyut_nikopol_z.html; https://t.me/vilkul/1606
[8] https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=587337403121254; https://t.me/stranau…
[9] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass…
[10] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[11] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0kH5UfWq6VxNTx3pmy6e…
[12] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[13] https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/standing/1555454906470916096
[14] https://t.me/mod_russia/17385; https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/51078; http… ru/politika/15116687; https://ria dot ru/20220704/geroi-1800093356.html; https://t.me/mod_russia/17359; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro… https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign…
[15] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[16] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[17] https://t.me/nm_dnr/8684; https://t.me/boris_rozhin/59618; https://twi…
[18] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[19] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[20] https://www.ukrinform dot ua/rubric-ato/3544782-na-doneccini-selise-piski-perebuvae-pid-kontrolem-zsu-kirilenko.html ; https://zn dot ua/ukr/UKRAINE/selishche-piski-perebuvaje-pid-kontrolem-ukrajinskikh-vijskovikh-.html; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WY8sDvZdWEA&ab_channel=%D0percentA2percentD0percentA1percentD0percent9…
[21] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[22] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[23] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0tU9Bs7vium9Kt9BiRbA…
[24] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0kH5UfWq6VxNTx3pmy6e…
[25] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid0kH5UfWq6VxNTx3pmy6e…
[26] https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=784657516308592
[27] https://t.me/starukhofficial/3526; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/11353; htt…
[28] https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/standing/1555851626568712193
[29] https://www.fb.com/watch/?v=784657516308592; https://www.youtube….
[30] https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/novyny-pryazovya-oleshki-armiya-rosiyi-kh…
[31] https://t.me/stranaua/56452
[32] https://www dot kavkaz-uzel.eu/articles/379906/
[33] https://gazetaingush dot ru/obshchestvo/zhitelyam-ingushetii-obyasnili-prichinu-razmeshcheniya-voennogo-poligona-v-predgornoy
[34] https://www dot kommersant.ru/doc/5470457; https://t.me/iovf_phoenix_67/5; https://informugra dot ru/information/obyasnyaem_ru/dlya-uchastiya-v-spetsialnoy-voennoy-operatsii-formiruyutsya-imennye-podrazdeleniya-yugry-/
[35] https://t.me/s/iovf_phoenix_67; https://t.me/iovf_phoenix_67/3; https://t.me/iovf_phoenix_67/4
[36] https://informugra dot ru/information/obyasnyaem_ru/dlya-uchastiya-v-spetsialnoy-voennoy-operatsii-formiruyutsya-imennye-podrazdeleniya-yugry-/
[37] https://www dot kommersant.ru/doc/5470457
[38] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/08/06/na-pivdni-odrazu-dva-gaulyajtera-perebuvayut-u-vazhkomu-stani/ ; https://ria dot ru/20220806/pokushenie-1807714966.html?utm_source=yxnews&utm_medium=desktop; https://t.me/rian_ru/173599; https://real-vin dot com/na-hersonshhine-ubit-gauljajter; https://information.liga dot web/politics/information/v-novoy-kahovke-podstelili-vidnogo-kollaboranta-on-v-bolnitse-v-tyajelom-sostoyanii; https://ru.slovoidilo dot ua/2022/08/06/novost/bezopasnost/xersonshhine-ubili-vysokopostavlennogo-kollaboranta-vitaliya-guru; https://focus dot ua/voennye-novosti/524630-v-hersonskoy-oblasti-sovershili-pokushenie-na-kollaboranta-guru-chto-izvestno-video; https://t.me/voenkorKotenok/39056
[39] https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/16409
[40]https://www.fb.com/sergey.khlan/posts/pfbid0LcCRRn4FxvxMEsTUSxbjiR…
[41] https://t.me/mariupolnow/16996; https://t.me/mariupolnow/17012; https:…
[42] https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov dot ua/2022/08/04/v-hersoni-okupanty-zahoplyuyut-biznes-ale-praczivnyky-vidmovlyayutsya-praczyuvaty-na-voroga/
[43] https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov dot ua/2022/08/06/na-pivdni-odrazu-dva-gaulyajtera-perebuvayut-u-vazhkomu-stani/
[44] https://sprotyv.mod.gov dot ua/2022/08/06/okupanty-pozhalilys-propagandystam-na-totalnyj-sabotazh-z-boku-misczevyh-u-melitopoli/; https://focus dot ua/voennye-novosti/524623-v-melitopole-okkupanty-hotyat-rasstrelivat-uchiteley-za-zarplaty-iz-ukrainy-video; https://t.me/ivan_fedorov_melitopol/358
[45] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/20/russian-emails-vladimir-pu…
[46] https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov dot ua/2022/08/06/okupanty-ne-zmogly-nabraty-personal-dlya-vidzhatogo-nymy-telekanalu-u-hersoni/
[47] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign…
[48] https://t.me/stranaua/56461; https://tass dot com/russia/1490353;
[49] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass…
[50] https://t.me/BalitskyVGA/151
