August 20, 9:30 pm ET
Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date every day alongside the static maps current on this report.
Russian occupation officers in Crimea reported one other drone assault on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol on August 20. Russian-appointed Governor of Sevastopol Mikhail Razvozhaev claimed that Russian forces have been unable to shoot down a drone, ensuing within the drone hitting the roof of the Black Sea Fleet headquarters.[1] Razvozhaev then retracted his preliminary assertion and claimed {that a} fleet air protection submit shot down the drone, which landed on the roof and caught fireplace.[2] Social media footage confirmed a loud explosion and a cloud of smoke across the headquarters, and the drone probably detonated quite than being shot down. Some OSINT accounts have recognized the drone as a commercially-available “Skyeye 5000mm Professional UAV.”[3] Ukrainian officers didn’t declare duty for the assault as of the time of this publication. ISW has beforehand reported that Crimean occupation officers have obliquely accused Ukraine of orchestrating a drone assault on the headquarters on July 31 throughout Russia’s Navy Day.[4]
Russian occupation officers in Crimea are probably contemplating strengthening safety on the peninsula following the assaults on Russian army infrastructure, and such measures could draw Russian safety forces away from the entrance strains. Razvozhaev acknowledged that every one safety companies in Sevastopol are working in “excessive alert” mode and controlling all entrances to the town.[5] Razvozhaev claimed that Sevastopol residents are asking the occupation administration to extend patrols within the metropolis and set up new checkpoints, returning the peninsula to a safety posture such because it had after Russia initially seized it in 2014. ISW has beforehand assessed that Russian forces have been utilizing all sorts of safety forces, together with Rosgvardia, as fight forces and can probably must divert a few of these forces from the entrance strains and from occupation safety duties elsewhere to defend occupied Crimea.[6] Russia’s continued failures to cease assaults in opposition to occupied Crimea might also spark public discontent inside Russian society. One Russian milblogger criticized Russian forces for not utilizing extra digital warfare (EW) tools following the primary drone assault on July 31.[7] Social media footage already exhibits many Russians ready in site visitors jams to depart Crimea and go to Russia, which can point out rising public concern for the effectiveness of Russian safety measures.[8]
Key Takeaways
- Russian occupation officers in Crimea reported one other drone assault on the Russian Black Sea Fleet Headquarters in Sevastopol and are probably contemplating strengthening safety on the peninsula.
- Russian forces performed unsuccessful assaults throughout the Jap Axis.
- Russian forces tried restricted, failed assaults north of Kharkiv Metropolis.
- Russian forces didn’t advance after a number of assaults northwest of Kherson Metropolis and east of Mykolaiv Metropolis.
- Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots and positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts.
- Russian and proxy forces are persevering with mobilization efforts, together with compelled mobilization in occupied territories and promoting campaigns.
- Russian occupation authorities continued coercive measures to power civilian cooperation with the occupation administrations.
- Circumstances in occupied territories continued to deteriorate, indicating ineffective governance.
We don’t report intimately on Russian warfare crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t straight have an effect on the army operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to guage and report on the results of those legal actions on the Ukrainian army and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We completely condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity though we don’t describe them in these stories.
- Fundamental Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and two supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Fundamental Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops within the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
- Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts
- Actions in Russian-occupied Areas
Fundamental Effort—Jap Ukraine
Subordinate Fundamental Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in japanese Ukraine and seize everything of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to launch unsuccessful assaults southwest of Izyum on August 20. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully tried to advance to Novo Dmytrivka, Virnopillya, and Kurulka, roughly 25 km southwest of Izyum.[9] Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian forces placing Russian army tools roughly 12 km northeast of Novo Dmytrivka on an unspecified date.[10] Russian forces additionally continued to shell Asiivka, Husarivka, Chepil, and Protopopivka northwest of Izyum and launched an airstrike on Zalyman on the Kharkiv Metropolis-Izyum line.[11]
Russian forces tried a number of unsuccessful floor assaults on Siversk from the southeast on August 20. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces launched unsuccessful offensive operations from Spirne to Ivano-Daryivka and from Mykolaivka to Vyimka, all southeast of Siversk.[12] Russian forces additionally launched an airstrike on Ivano-Daryivka and shelled settlements round Siversk.[13] The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces fired artillery close to Pryshyb and Rozolivka, on the western financial institution of Siverskyi Donets River and simply south of Sviatohirsk.[14] ISW beforehand reported that Russian milbloggers recessed Russian territorial management from Pryshyb on their maps.[15]
Russian forces continued to concentrate on advancing northeast and south of Bakhmut on August 20 however didn’t make territorial beneficial properties within the space. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces unsuccessfully attacked Bakhmut, Soledar, and Bakhmutske (northeast of Bakhmut).[16] Russian forces reportedly didn’t advance to Zaytseve and Kodema, roughly 9 and 13 kilometers southeast of Bakhmut, respectively.[17] Russian forces additionally performed unsuccessful assaults within the route of Horlivka-Mayorsk, about 21 km due southwest of Bakhmut.[18] The Donetsk Folks’s Republic (DNR) Militia claimed that the DNR “Kalmious” Brigade is supporting Russian forces advancing north of Horlivka with artillery fireplace however didn’t make any territorial claims.[19] The DNR Militia additionally claimed that the DNR’s third Brigade seized Ukrainian positions round Zaytseve, however ISW can’t independently confirm the DNR’s claims.[20] The UK Protection Ministry famous that Russian forces have approached the outskirts of Bakhmut however haven’t damaged into Bakhmut’s defensive areas.[21]
Russian forces performed unsuccessful assaults northwest and west of Donetsk Metropolis on August 20. The Ukrainian Normal Workers acknowledged that Russian forces launched unsuccessful assaults on Opytne, Pisky, and Pervomaiske, all northwest of Donetsk Metropolis.[22] Deputy Commander of the DNR’s 1st Army Corps Eduard Basurin claimed that Russian forces are combating for Krasnohorivka and Tonenke, 19 km west and 18 km northwest of Donetsk Metropolis, respectively.[23] Geolocated footage additionally confirmed Ukrainian forces placing an advancing Russian unit within the southern a part of Mariinka, about 22 km west of Donetsk Metropolis.[24] Geolocated footage additionally confirmed that Russian forces try to advance to Mariinka from its northeastern outskirts.[25]
Russian forces continued combating close to the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border on August 20. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces carried out failed assaults on Zolota Nyva, about 20 km east of the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border however have been unsuccessful and withdrew.[26]
Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Defend floor strains of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)
Russian forces tried restricted floor assaults north of Kharkiv Metropolis on August 20, all of which failed. Official Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces tried assaults northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis close to Borshchova however failed and retreated.[27] The Derhachi Metropolis Council reported that Russian forces additionally performed a failed assault on Pytomnyk, north of Kharkiv Metropolis.[28] Geolocated footage revealed on August 18 exhibits Russian forces working round Dementiivka, indicating that Russian forces have solely made marginal territorial beneficial properties towards Dementiivka north of Kharkiv Metropolis regardless of extended efforts to grab the settlement.[29] The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces performed airstrikes close to Ruski Tyshky north of Kharkiv Metropolis and Zolochiv northwest of Kharkiv Metropolis.[30] Ukrainian Kharkiv Oblast Administration Head Oleg Synegubov reported that Russian forces performed missile strikes on Kharkiv Metropolis and all through Kharkiv Oblast in a single day on August 19-20, damaging crucial infrastructure.[31] Russian forces continued shelling Kharkiv Metropolis and surrounding settlements.[32]
Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts in opposition to Ukrainian counterattacks)
Russian forces launched a number of assaults northwest of Kherson Metropolis and east of Mykolaiv Metropolis on August 20. Ukrainian army officers reported {that a} Russian platoon unsuccessfully tried to advance to Tavriiske, about 38 km northwest of Kherson Metropolis.[33] Two Russian amphibious assault detachments additionally didn’t advance to Partyzanske, roughly 44 km east of Mykolaiv Metropolis alongside the T1508 freeway that goes to the Russian strongpoint in Snihurivka.[34] Geolocated footage additionally confirmed a small Ukrainian detachment raid an unspecified constructing in northern Snihurivka on an unspecified date, which might point out that Russian positions shifted south throughout the settlement.[35] Ukrainian officers reported that Russian forces launched an Iskander missile at Voznesensk (about 81 km northwest of Mykolaiv Metropolis) hitting a residential constructing and continued placing Mykolaiv Metropolis with S-300 missiles.[36]
Russian occupation authorities once more accused Ukraine of shelling the Zaporizhia Nuclear Energy Plant (ZNPP), whereas Russian forces continued to shell settlements in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast throughout the Dnipro River. Russian-backed Zaporizhia Oblast Navy-Civilian Administration Head Vladimir Rogov claimed that Ukrainian forces shelled within the neighborhood of one of many administrative buildings at ZNPP utilizing Western-provided army tools on August 20.[37] ISW can’t independently confirm if shelling occurred on August 20. Editor and correspondent for NPR Science Geoff Brumfiel concluded that obtainable satellite tv for pc imagery from August 19 won’t suffice to make assessments of whether or not or not shelling occurred with out footage from the bottom.[38] Russian occupation authorities have management of the narrative provided that they’ve entry to the occupied ZNPP and have notably didn’t current clear proof to assist their claims. Ukrainian native officers reported that Russian forces continued to fireside Grad a number of launch rocket system (MLRS) rockets at Marhanets and tube artillery at Nikopol.[39] Ukrainian forces additionally shot down 4 Russian Kalibr cruise missiles over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.[40]
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian ammunition depots and positions in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts. Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan reported explosions in Chornobaivka (about 7 km northwest of Kherson Metropolis), and social media footage confirmed three distinct smoke columns reportedly on the Chornobaivka airfield.[41] Khlan additionally reported that there have been two Ukrainian strikes on unspecified targets close to Nova Kakhovka and Beryslav on August 19.[42] The Ukrainian Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian aviation launched 11 airstrikes on Russian positions alongside the road of contact in Kherson Oblast.[43] Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian artillery placing Russian army tools in northwestern Kherson Oblast.[44] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov acknowledged that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian army base in Melitopol, noting that Russian forces didn’t intercept the missile as a result of the primary a part of the Russian air-defense models has redeployed from Melitopol to Kherson Oblast.[45] Fedorov added that Russian forces fired a missile at Melitopol from the southern route as a response to Ukrainian strikes in opposition to Russian army objects, though there isn’t a proof to assist this assertion.[46] Kremlin-sponsored media claimed that Russian air-defense methods activated in a single day and accused Ukrainian forces of placing civilian infrastructure.[47] Social media footage exhibits reported explosions in Melitopol, however the level of affect is unclear from the footage.[48]
Russian forces stay unable to revive a bridge crossing over the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast. A Russian army correspondent confirmed the extreme injury to the Kakhovka Bridge that Ukrainian strikes have triggered and claimed that Russians used the bridge in its place route for “humanitarian assist” after Ukrainian strikes in opposition to the Antonivsky Bridge.[49] The army correspondent claimed that the bridge is reparable and partially operational, however Khlan acknowledged that Russian restore efforts have been failing in current days.[50]
Mobilization and Pressure Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Increase fight energy with out conducting basic mobilization)
Russian proxy republics in Donbas are persevering with covert mobilization efforts however are struggling to generate ample manpower to create combat-ready models. Ukraine’s Resistance Heart reported that Luhansk Folks’s Republic (LNR) authorities are actively monitoring down eligible males for army service, together with by exchanging meals for data on the whereabouts of eligible males and trying to find eligible males close to colleges and kindergartens.[51] Ukrainian Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai claimed that LNR authorities are even mobilizing males with power sicknesses because of a scarcity of eligible males.[52] Ukraine’s Resistance Heart reported that the Donetsk Folks’s Republic (DNR) and LNR are sending mobilized males to the entrance strains with out ample ammunition and tools and referred to as on civilians to flee territories below occupation or below danger of occupation to keep away from mobilization.[53] Deputy Navy Commissar of LNR Alexei Kurchenko denied stories of compelled mobilization and claimed that LNR is recruiting volunteers for contract service.[54]
Russian and occupation authorities proceed relentless promoting campaigns to recruit for contract volunteer army service. The Yekaterinburg army choice middle reportedly positioned ads at bus stops for four-to-twelve-month army contracts with 200,000-ruble ($3,361) month-to-month salaries.[55] An area Yekaterinburg outlet additionally reported on August 18 {that a} billboard promoting for “Orkestr W” appeared within the metropolis and that the listed telephone quantity is linked to Wagner Group.[56] The Ukrainian Mariupol Metropolis Administration posted screenshots on August 20 of textual content messages to Mariupol residents promoting Donetsk Folks’s Republic (DNR) army contracts, reportedly providing 200,000-300,000-ruble ($3,361-5,042) month-to-month salaries.[57]
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov introduced the formation of a second police regiment for the safety of oil and fuel amenities within the Chechen Republic.[58] Rosgvardia North Caucasian District Commander Lieutenant Normal Alibek Delimkhanov acknowledged that this new police regiment can have 2,000 personnel and that over 600 candidates have already utilized.[59] Kadyrov acknowledged that Chechen authorities have reorganized each police regiments to be combat-ready.[60] Kadyrov acknowledged that having a brand new, combat-ready police regiment will develop Chechen forces’ means to guard crucial infrastructure in Chechnya.[61]
Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set circumstances for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)
Russian occupation authorities continued measures to coerce or power Ukrainian civilians into cooperating with occupation administrations in occupied areas. Ukraine’s Resistance Heart reported that Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast are threatening to confiscate property from companies that don’t submit tax paperwork to the occupation administration.[62] Ukraine’s Resistance Heart additionally reported that letters to those companies threatened that occupation authorities will seize and switch these companies to different homeowners if they don’t register by September 1.[63] Ukrainian Advisor to the Kherson Oblast Administration Serhiy Khlan acknowledged that the Kherson Oblast occupation administration is demanding that Kherson Metropolis residents write letters explaining any delinquent lease or utility funds regardless of prior occupation administration assurances that it’ll forgive all debt.[64] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Administration Head Yaroslav Yanushevych acknowledged that occupation officers are threatening dad and mom who don’t ship their kids to Russian colleges with fines beginning at 148,000 rubles and property seizures.[65]
Circumstances in occupied territories proceed to deteriorate. Khlan mentioned on August 19 that Russian occupation authorities are proscribing passage by way of the border between Kherson Oblast and Crimea and that climate circumstances compelled the closure of the Vasylivka checkpoint 45 km south of Zaporizhia Metropolis, stopping Ukrainians in occupied territories from evacuating.[66] The Ukrainian Mariupol Metropolis Administration reported on August 20 that there are fixed firearm incidents in Mariupol and that shootings have gotten a brand new manner of fixing issues throughout the metropolis, indicating poor governance in occupied Donetsk Oblast.[67] Donetsk Folks’s Republic (DNR) officers introduced that the Verkhnyokalmiuska Water Filtration Station in Donetsk Metropolis ceased operations in a single day on August 19-20 because of low water ranges and won’t resume operations for a minimum of three days, exacerbating current struggles to offer clear water to residents of Donetsk Metropolis and the encompassing areas.[68]
Kharkiv Oblast occupation authorities started passportization efforts on August 20. Kharkiv Oblast occupation head in Kupyansk Maxim Gubin reported that the primary ten residents of Kupyansk obtained Russian passports on August 20.[69] The announcement got here simply in the future after Kharkiv Oblast occupation head Vitaly Ganchev formally appointed former Krasnodar Mayor Andrey Alekseenko as Chairman of the Council of Ministers of the Kharkiv occupation administration.[70]
Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushenko reported on August 20 that unknown actors, probably Ukrainian partisans, unsuccessfully tried to assassinate Russian collaborator and occupation Mayor Konstantin Ivashenko.[71]
Notice: ISW doesn’t obtain any categorised materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly obtainable data, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially obtainable satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial knowledge as the idea for these stories. References to all sources used are offered within the endnotes of every replace.
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