Two issues had been clear by the tip of Monday’s session of the Russian safety council: Vladimir Putin will recognise the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk Folks’s Republics as unbiased states, and he’ll ship common Russian troops to defend them.
The query is what they do subsequent.
The very best case is that Mr Putin is continuous his recreation of incremental screw tightening and the Russian military will halt on the present line of contact.
However what in the event that they don’t?
Vladimir Kolokoltsev, the Russian inside minister, referred to as on Mr Putin to recognise the republics “of their historic borders”.
Claimed as reliable territory
When Russian-backed “individuals’s parliaments” proclaimed independence within the spring of 2014, they claimed as their reliable territory all of Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk areas.
That suggests a struggle of “liberation” to grab Ukrainian-held cities akin to Mariupol, Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
Within the course of, the Russian armed forces would search to destroy Ukraine’s strongest and most battle-hardened army models, all of that are concentrated within the east.
Some officers in Kyiv have lengthy thought-about {that a} extra possible choice than the complete invasion that Western governments are warning of.
However Western intelligence and safety officers usually are not giving up on these warnings. If something, they’re getting louder.
One informed the Telegraph they nonetheless anticipate a full-scale invasion alongside a number of axes of advance, together with a speedy thrust from Belarus in the direction of Kyiv. On all these axes Russian troops are actually deploying to their begin traces, the official added.
It isn’t clear how that may finish.
A full occupation of left-bank Ukraine and Kyiv is the worst case situation, however one which additionally appears unsustainable.
Dmitry Medvedev, the previous Russian president, likened the present scenario to Georgia in 2008, when Russia carried out air strikes all around the nation and Russian tank columns pushed in the direction of Tbilisi earlier than going residence. The entire thing solely lasted just a few days.
There will likely be huge prices for Russia. Regardless of disagreements, Western leaders are united in promising extraordinary sanctions if an invasion goes forward.
That’s one cause some optimists should hope that the Russian military will cease on the present line of contact. Maybe Mr Putin thinks different world leaders will likely be so relieved to have escaped mass carnage that they are going to relent on sanctions.
It’s the form of manoeuvre Mr Putin has pulled off many instances earlier than. However nothing in Monday’s safety council assembly pointed to that.
Mikhail Mishustin, the Russian prime minister, briefed the safety council assembly that the dangers are well-known – and mentioned that the financial system was effectively positioned to bear them.
Able to make sacrifices
Mr Medvedev mentioned the Russian individuals would assist the transfer and be able to make sacrifices for it, as if readying the general public for an financial blow.
Mr Putin is ripping up the Minsk II settlement, the 2015 peace plan he imposed on Petro Poroshenko, then Ukrainian president, on the level of a tank cannon.
In a manner, that’s an admission of defeat. The aim of that deal, Ukrainian leaders consider, was to undermine their sovereignty and permit him to regulate the nation from inside.
If Mr Putin continues to be decided to regulate Ukraine he may use a brand new struggle to power an much more punishing Minsk III, and even instantly impose an occupation or puppet authorities.
There’s a madly optimistic situation during which that is all a retreat.
The Western official claimed – with out proof – that some senior Russian officers have deep misgivings concerning the present course.
Perhaps these individuals have persuaded Mr Putin that recognition will permit him to face as much as the West and harm Ukraine whereas avoiding a struggle.
Sadly, that isn’t the message popping out of Moscow, Kyiv, or the West.
Many extra individuals are more likely to die earlier than the horror that started in 2014 is over.
