Putin nonetheless desires most of Ukraine, warfare outlook grim -U.S. intelligence chief

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends Caspian Summit in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan June 29, 2022. Sputnik/Grigory Sysoyev/Pool through REUTERS

WASHINGTON, June 29 (Reuters) – Russian President Vladimir Putin nonetheless desires to grab most of Ukraine, however his forces are so degraded by fight that they seemingly can solely obtain incremental good points within the close to time period, the highest U.S. intelligence officer stated Wednesday.

Director of Nationwide Intelligence Avril Haines, outlining the present U.S. intelligence evaluation of the greater than four-month warfare, stated that the consensus of U.S. spy businesses is that it’ll grind on “for an prolonged time frame.”

“Briefly, the image stays fairly grim and Russia’s perspective towards the West is hardening,” Haines instructed a Commerce Division convention.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelinskiy this week instructed U.S. President Joe Biden and different G7 leaders that he desires the warfare over by the top of the yr.

However Haines’ feedback recommended that the billions of {dollars} in fashionable arms being provided by the USA and different international locations to Zelinskiy’s forces could not give them the flexibility to show the tide in opposition to Russia any time quickly.

She stated that Putin stays intent on overruning most of Ukraine though Ukrainian forces beat again Russia’s try and seize the capital Kyiv in February, forcing Moscow to scale back its goal to seizing your entire japanese Donbas area.

“We predict he has successfully the identical political objectives that we had beforehand, which is to say that he desires to take most of Ukraine,” Haines stated.

Russian forces, nevertheless, have been so degraded by greater than 4 months of fight that it’s unlikely they will obtain Putin’s objective any time quickly, Haines stated in her first public evaluation of the warfare since Might.

“We understand a disconnect between Putin’s near-term army goals on this space and his army’s capability, a sort of mismatch between his ambitions and what the army is ready to accomplish,” she stated.

Haines stated U.S. intelligence businesses see three attainable situations, the almost definitely being a grinding battle wherein Russian forces “make incremental good points, with no breathrough.”

The opposite situations embody a significant Russian breakthrough and Ukraine succeeding in stabilizing the frontlines whereas attaining small good points, maybe close to the Russian-held metropolis of Kherson and different areas of southern Ukraine.

It should take years for Russia to rebuild its forces, she stated.

“Throughout this era, we anticipate that they are going to be extra reliant on assymetric instruments that they’ve, resembling cyber assaults, efforts to regulate power, even nuclear weapons so as to attempt to handle and venture energy and affect globally,” Haines stated.

“Within the interim, Russian troops are unlikely to have the ability to conduct a number of simultaneous operations,” Haines continued.

Putin’s precedence now, she stated, is making good points within the Donbas area and collapsing Ukrainian forces, a improvement that Russia assesses will “trigger the resistance from inside to hunch.”

Haines’ feedback got here after a summit of NATO leaders on Wednesday branded Russia essentially the most “direct risk” to alliance safety and vowed to modernize Kyiv’s forces, saying it stood behind their “heroic protection of their nation.” learn extra

Russia launched what it calls a “particular army operation” in opposition to Ukraine on Feb. 24 to remove what it deemed a fascist authorities that threatened its safety.

Ukraine, the USA and different international locations say Russia is conducting an unjustified warfare of aggression in opposition to its neighbor.

Extra reporting by Doina Chiacu; enhancing by Alistair Bell and Deepa Babington

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