Ihor Zhdanov, Data Defence
Informational Defence of Ukraine supplies a every day evaluation of the military-political scenario in Ukraine, morning of March nineteenth, primarily based on an evaluation of open sources.
1. The russian occupiers haven’t achieved success in any of the operational areas and have sustained heavy losses on account of counterattacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine are holding again the enemy and finishing up counter-offensive operations in sure operational areas. There are artillery and rocket-bomb assaults on teams of troops and columns of apparatus.
In most operational areas the scenario is with out important modifications, there are battles of native significance, the conflict has moved to the positional stage. The enemy is having an operational pause to attract up reserves, notably from the Far East, Armenia, and recruiting mercenaries in Syria.
Energetic hostilities are going down within the Luhansk route, the place the invaders are attempting to ascertain management over the settlements of Rubizhne and Popasna, in addition to the blockade of Severodonetsk.
Within the space of Rubizhne, the enemy was established on the western and northwestern outskirts of the town, making unsuccessful makes an attempt to succeed in the southern a part of the town. Preventing continues for Popasna.
Within the Donetsk route, specifically within the Azovstal space, russian occupation forces briefly reduce off Ukraine from entry to the Sea of Azov.
In response to the Common Employees of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the full fight losses of the enemy from 24.02 until 19.03 had been roughly: combatants – about 14,400 individuals, tanks – 466 models, armoured fight automobiles – 1470 models, artillery techniques – 213 models, MLRS – 72 models, air defence – 44 models, plane – 95 models, helicopters – 115 models, automobiles – 914 models, ships / boats – 3 models, gas tanks – 60, UAV of operational and tactical ranges -17.
Because the starting of russia’s assault on Ukraine, the armed forces have been capable of liberate greater than 30 settlements within the Kyiv area, which had been briefly occupied by the enemy.
Because of the fireplace on the enemy, the commander of the eighth All-Navy Army of the Southern Navy District of the Armed Forces of the russian federation, Lieutenant Common Andrei Mordvichev was killed.
Fighters of the operational and tactical group “East” on Friday destroyed 8 tanks, 11 infantry preventing automobiles and a platoon of enemy infantry in a number of instructions.
In response to the Pentagon, as of March 18th, the russian occupiers had fired 1,080 missiles throughout Ukraine.
The enemy spent nearly their complete stockpile of missiles and a few sorts of ammunition, on account of which quite a few enterprises of the Russian military-industrial advanced had been transferred to round the clock operation.
2. Prospects for nuclear blackmail by russia.
russia’s drawback of nuclear blackmailing is changing into more and more essential in worldwide political and professional circles. If we outline its essence briefly, we are able to ask: will Russia really use tactical nuclear weapons for its defeat within the conflict in opposition to Ukraine?
This was reported by US intelligence company. In response to the director of the Pentagon’s intelligence division, Lieutenant Common Scott Berrier russian president putin will threaten to make use of nuclear weapons in opposition to the West if Ukraine’s resistance to the conflict continues, Bloomberg reviews.
There may be nearly little doubt about the opportunity of russia’s nuclear blackmailing in case of the likelihood of its defeat – state Data Defence specialists.
Nonetheless, the gap between the “menace of utilizing nuclear weapons” and the “use of them” is big. Till a few weeks in the past, most specialists would have adopted conservative eventualities, saying that putin was bluffing, that it was mandatory to barter and do enterprise as traditional.
Nonetheless, the course of the Ukrainian-russian conflict has demonstrated that putin just isn’t solely capable of bluff and lift stakes, but additionally to resort to overtly aggressive insufficient actions, as was the case with the start of russia’s aggression in opposition to Ukraine. The world has modified dramatically nowadays.
As we speak, the situation of the usage of tactical nuclear weapons (in Ukraine or in one of many NATO international locations), based on Data Defence specialists, not seems so unlikely.
putin believes that he’ll profit from the usage of tactical nuclear weapons, as he’s satisfied that NATO is weak and doesn’t dare to reply adequately.
In response to well-known professional Andriy Piontkovsky, NATO has a number of choices for Russia’s response if tactical nuclear weapons are used on its territory:
1. Instantly arrange a negotiating communication with russia and talk about the phrases of an honorable peace/give up.
2. Give a robust navy response to russia however with out the usage of nuclear weapons.
3. Give a powerful navy response to russia utilizing related tactical nuclear weapons (full symmetrical response/restricted nuclear response).
4. Give a robust navy response to russia with the usage of strategic nuclear weapons (full-scale nuclear conflict).
Probably the most sufficient situation at present is a full symmetric/restricted nuclear response situation. In latest weeks, the West has grown up, and though it’s afraid to be part of the conflict, it has lastly realized that with putin solely pressure can cease him; he absorbs those that are weak utilizing nuclear blackmail.
3. The russian invaders proceed to violate worldwide humanitarian regulation.
The price of the victims of putin’s aggression continues to develop. New tragic information had been reported by juvenile prosecutors: as of March 18th, 109 youngsters had died and greater than 130 had been injured.
The most important variety of victims is in Kyiv area. 55 youngsters died right here. The variety of victims amongst minors is growing within the following districts: Kharkiv – 34; Donetsk – 26; Chernihiv – 29; Mykolaiiv – 20; Zhytomyr – 15; Sumy – 14; Kherson – 14.
The UN Migration Company estimates that about 6.5 million of Ukrainians have change into internally displaced and three.2 million have gone overseas as a result of russia’s conflict.
439 academic establishments had been broken in the results of bombing and shelling, 63 of them had been utterly destroyed. The Donetsk (126), Kharkiv (77) and Mykolaiiv (39) areas suffered rather a lot. Within the capital, the racists destroyed 35 colleges.
The knowledge just isn’t closing, as it’s unimaginable to examine the scene as a result of continuation of hostilities.
Rocket and bomb strikes on Ukrainian cities proceed. As we analysed within the earlier evaluation, such huge shelling can’t be defined by the aggressor’s extra and tragic errors on account of the usage of indiscriminate kind ammunition. The one logical rationalization is deliberate terrorism in an effort to break the spirit and can to victory of each the Ukrainian individuals and the highest navy and political leaders of the nation.
Listed below are some (not all) examples of state terrorism by the russian invaders in latest days.
Because the starting of the full-scale russian invasion, 222 individuals have died in Kyiv, together with 60 civilians and 4 youngsters. Because of the shelling of the Vynohradar district in Kyiv Podilskyi district on Friday, an individual was killed and 19 individuals had been injured, together with 4 youngsters.
Within the Luhansk area on March 18th on account of shelling of Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, Pryvillia, Kreminna on March 18th about 54 websites had been broken, 4 individuals had been killed, 10 individuals had been wounded.
russian troops launched a missile strike on Kramatorsk, the Donetsk area, and it’s at present recognized that 2 individuals had been killed and 6 wounded.
In response to preliminary info, two individuals had been killed and three had been injured within the shelling of the russian invaders in Avdiiivka, the Donetsk area, on March 18th.
4. Beneath assaults of the russian occupiers, the evacuation via humanitarian corridors goes forward.
On March 18th, it was confirmed that 9 humanitarian corridors within the Donetsk and Sumy areas had been to be organised.
Within the Donetsk area, the hall ought to run on the route Mariupol – Zaporizhzhia. Mariupol residents who managed to evacuate from the town will probably be transported from Berdiansk to Zaporizhzhia, and those that stroll on foot will probably be helped in Manhush.
Within the Sumy area, the corridors will function: from Sumy to Poltava; from Trostianets, to Poltava.
Within the Kharkiv area, it’s deliberate to ship humanitarian assist to the cities of Balakleia and Izium.
In response to the Deputy Head of the Presidential Workplace Kyrylo Tymoshenko, 9,145 individuals had been evacuated via humanitarian corridors on March 18th, together with 4,972 residents of Mariupol, together with 1,124 youngsters, who went to Zaporizhzhia. Buses that arrived in Berdiansk from Zaporizhzhia took 500 individuals away. 4,173 individuals had been evacuated from the Sumy area.
As well as, gas was delivered to Berdiansk to refuel private automobiles of Mariupol residents transferring alongside the humanitarian hall.
Within the Kharkiv area, it was not doable to ship humanitarian assist to the cities of Balakleia and Izium resulting from shelling by russian troops on the confirmed route.
5. The political and informational battle over the content material of the Ukrainian-russian negotiations continues.
russian president putin, as at all times, has begun to boost lethal charges, saying in a phone dialog with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz that Ukraine is making “unrealistic” proposals within the talks.
Apparently, the russian dictator determined to play the position of a “unhealthy” policeman, entrusting the position of “good” cop to the pinnacle of the russian delegation Vladimir Medinsky, who assures that the Moscow-Kyiv talks “managed to reconcile positions on Ukraine’s impartial standing.”
In Ukraine, as predicted by the Data Defence professional, the inner political battle over the content material of the agreements has already begun. Main political forces are nonetheless observers {of professional}/pseudo-professional discussions on social media.
The principle focus of the uncompromising dialogue is the impartial standing of Ukraine, recognition of its territorial integrity, together with the Crimea and Donbas, actual ensures of safety for our nation.
It will likely be extraordinarily tough to seek out factors of contact and compromise inside the nation, given the present Ukrainian realities. Nonetheless, this can be a strict necessity to make sure the unity of the state within the face of the russian occupiers.
6. The Ukrainian authorities, enterprise, and residents exhibit solidarity and consolidate their efforts to confront the enemy.
The federal government continues to seriously change the situations for doing enterprise in Ukraine and scale back corruption dangers. In accordance to the Prime-Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal, the Authorities has determined to simplify all customs procedures as a lot as doable, the aim is to create the quickest customs on the planet: with “no paperwork at customs and tax codes”.
The Prime-Minister additionally has added that those that wish to keep on the final system pays solely VAT, and such registration ought to take not more than quarter-hour. And those that simply wish to carry the products to Ukraine with none customs clearance, should fill out a declaration upfront.
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has mentioned that households who’ve accommodated individuals from the territories of hostilities or non permanent occupation will probably be reimbursed for utilities prices.
The Nationwide Financial institution and the Particular person Deposit Assure Fund help the President Zelenskyy’s initiative to introduce a 100% state assure on family deposits.
7. Worldwide help and help to Ukraine.
Navy assist to Ukraine continues to develop. Ukrainian Ambassador to the US Oksana Markarova has mentioned that a part of the help supplied by the US to Ukraine has already crossed the border: “I cannot reveal issues that our enemy shouldn’t know. However when sure selections are made and they’re public, at this level some issues are already crossing the border. In actual fact, it’s a parallel course of. This isn’t a package deal (assist – ed.), that will probably be used solely now to buy one thing”.
It appears that the robust success of the Ukrainian air defence in latest days might be associated to the extra provide of recent air defence techniques from the US.
On the request of NATO, the Netherlands and Germany will provide Slovakia with American Patriot anti-aircraft missile techniques as an alternative of its S-300 air defence techniques, that are being transferred to Ukraine in the mean time.
On the similar time, russian Minister of Overseas Affairs Sergei Lavrov mentioned that Moscow wouldn’t permit the switch to Ukraine from different international locations of S-300 air defence techniques to guard in opposition to russian air strikes.
Political and diplomatic help for Ukraine continues. The European Fee’s opinion on Ukraine’s software for EU membership will probably be prepared in a couple of months.
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote about this on Twitter after a dialog with European Fee President Ursula von der Leyen.
“I had a substantive dialog with EU President Ursula von der Leyen. The EU opinion on Ukraine’s software for EU membership will probably be ready in a couple of months. The federal government and the EU have been instructed. Collectively we’re transferring in the direction of our strategic aim,” Zelenskyy said.
As reported, the President of the European Fee Ursula von der Leyen in a dialog with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has mentioned that Ukraine’s European means has already began.
Monetary assist is rising. Ukraine on Friday will obtain 300 million euros in emergency funding from the European Union in help of 1.2 billion euros.
The quantity of russian property frozen by banks and different monetary establishments within the Netherlands is 200 million euros.
The EU is starting to understand the pressing want for an embargo on russian vitality exports. The President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola has exhorted for a discount of the European dependence on russian vitality sources as quickly as doable, as that is an oblique financing of russia’s conflict.
Nonetheless, the load capability on the Ukrainian gasoline transportation system by russia’s Gazprom just isn’t declining and is greater than 105 million cubic meters per day below the transit contract, based on European observers.
8. Provocations and fakes of russian aggressors.
Oleh Syniehubov, head of the Kharkiv regional navy administration, has said that the russian occupiers inform their propagandists that they’re distributing humanitarian assist to residents of the briefly occupied territories of the Kharkiv area. “In some briefly occupied territories, the russian occupiers are attempting to create a constructive picture, distributing meals to the cameras, and many others.”
Within the russian capital, the authorities staged a “vacation live performance” in honour of the eighth anniversary of the unlawful occupation of the Crimea to help of the conflict in Ukraine.
The propaganda media RIA Novosti reviews that based on the russian Ministry of Inside Affairs in Moscow, greater than 203,000 individuals are in Luzhniki, the place the rally is being held: greater than 95,000 on the stadium and greater than 100,000 are close to.
russia has determined to carry another Paralympics from March 17 to twenty after they weren’t allowed to the actual Paralympics in Beijing as a result of assault on Ukraine.
russia’s state TV community RT can not be watched within the UK after the regulator Ofcom revoked its license.
9. Sanctions in opposition to russia are intensifying, and increasingly corporations are leaving the russian commerce market.
russia’s banking and monetary sector is starting to lower to the extent of the Nineties. Western banks with the biggest property in russia, which handle 57.2 billion {dollars} in russia, are contemplating methods to fastidiously exit the market of the nation. This was reported by the Monetary Occasions.
Banks with the biggest property are: Société Générale: 15 thousand workers, 18 billion {dollars} property in russia, 3.1 million clients and 200 branches; Raiffeisen: 9.4 thousand workers, 22.9 billion {dollars} property in russia, 4.2 million clients and 132 branches; UniCredit: 4,000 workers, $ 7.4 billion property in russia, 2 million clients and 70 branches; Citigroup: 3,000 workers, $ 8.9 billion property in russia, 0.5 million clients and 15 branches.
Banks with the very best dangers in russia
FT
Leaders of Western banking teams are contemplating three eventualities for the way forward for their banks, however it’s obscure what every possibility will imply for enterprise.
First. Promoting property is taken into account one of the best case situation for banks, as it will possibly shield them from massive monetary losses. Nonetheless, discovering a purchaser on acceptable phrases in opposition to the background of sanctions and monetary isolation will probably be extraordinarily tough.
Second. A whole closure means 1000’s of individuals will lose their jobs and the financial institution will lose 1000’s of company purchasers. Due to this fact, managers must weigh all the results and complexity of the group’s departure from the nation.
Third. Nationalization will save leaders from the issue of alternative, however is seen solely as a “vital situation.” This selection will probably be negatively perceived by shareholders.
The scenario with the implementation of the state price range of russia is deteriorating. The Ministry of Finance of russia proposes to sequester the price range, i.e. to scale back its expenditures in quite a few areas by half a trillion rubles.
russia’s worldwide isolation continues. European Parliament President Roberta Metsola introduced on Friday that russian and Belarusian diplomats had been barred from getting into parliament.
American corporations Halliburton and Schlumberger have taken steps to depart the russian market. The primary firm is totally shutting down, and the second is suspending additional funding and implementation of expertise.
The American movie studio Paramount suspends its actions in russia and donates $ 1 million to humanitarian assist.
Expertise company LG Electronics stops all deliveries to russia.
Athletes from russia and Belarus had been utterly suspended from the World Championships, the European Championships and the Diamond League.
Torrent platform RuTracker has opposed russia’s conflict in Ukraine and can block entry for customers from russia.
