The Russian Ministry of Protection [RuMoD] claimed to have nullified three A number of Launch Rocket Programs [MLRS] together with two HIMARS and one Alder MLRS close to Selidovo within the Donetsk Folks’s Republic and Glubokoye within the Kharkiv area on December 31, 2024.
On the very first day of the brand new yr, the Navy Informant Telegram channel shared a video, allegedly showcasing a HIMARS which had simply unleashed a barrage, being attacked by artillery rockets meting out cluster munitions close to Konstantinovka.
The video featured submunition strikes across the launcher suggesting its destruction. Nonetheless, the veracity of the video stays questionable because it doesn’t present concrete proof of the alleged destruction.
Although the video proof of the HIMARS neutralization will not be conclusive, Russia possible managed to hit the HIMARS earlier than it might totally withdraw from the launch zone. This achievement is notable contemplating the difficulties usually encountered whereas making an attempt to interact a HIMARS.
The problem
Optimized for speedy deployment and repositioning, the HIMARS system is an efficient artillery answer. Its wheeled automobile hosts a single pod accommodating six GMLRS [Guided Multiple Launch Rocket System] projectiles, able to hanging targets roughly 90 km away.
The superior precision of the system is exemplified by the SATNAV and INS-guided rockets. These can successfully neutralize high-value goals positioned 40 km behind enemy traces, even when deployed from a strategic location 50 km from the frontline. This locations the system safely out of attain from most Russian kamikaze drones and MLRS techniques.
It’s essential to acknowledge that the time required for a HIMARS to launch all its ammunition is a labeled parameter that may differ. Elements such because the rocket variant, the order of fireplace, and the crew’s operational protocol instantly affect this.
Nonetheless, one certainty is that the whole length required to discharge all rockets and subsequently relocate is lower than the mixed time it takes for GMLRS rockets to achieve their goal, the time wanted for a Weapon Finding Radar to course of the trajectory of the rockets, the time to relay HIMARS coordinates to a counter-battery MLRS, and the flight time to the HIMARS of counter-battery fireplace rocket. Within the equation of warfare, HIMARS unquestionably holds a pivotal edge.
Twister-S MLRS
The Twister-S MLRS from Russia has the spectacular capability to launch 300 mm SATNAV, and INS-guided rockets that includes both unitary or cluster warheads, over a formidable vary exceeding 100 km. Nonetheless, in the case of counter-battery firing, by the point these Twister-S rockets handle to achieve the launch level, the HIMARS system would have already ducked to security.
A puzzling query arises! There’s a video on Navy Informant TC demonstrating rockets arriving on the launch level earlier than HIMARS has a likelihood to duck out. How is that doable?
A believable clarification for this may very well be the counter-battery rockets had been set off earlier than the arrival of the HIMARS rockets inside the goal zone. This technique considerably shaves off the response time and blocks the escape route of the HIMARS system.
This brings us to a essential query – With out resorting to a Weapon Finding Radar that computes the final launch level by outlining the rocket’s path, how did the Russians handle to find the exact launch level?
The possible reply lies within the plume of the GMLRS rocket. It’s fairly doable that it was detected by a complicated Russian reconnaissance system, which promptly relayed the precise launch coordinates to the counter-battery MLRS.
Ought to or not it’s true that Russia has developed the power to identify the plume of a GMLRS rocket, this may very well be a major game-changer that can have a far-reaching influence on the strategic course of the Particular Navy Operation [SMO].
Reconnaissance system?
The Russian army boasts a number of superior aerial applied sciences able to detecting HIMARS rocket launches and directing ground-based counter-battery fireplace techniques. This spectacular technological arsenal consists of the Tu-214R reconnaissance plane, Orion MALE drones, and lastly, the EKS Kupol satellite tv for pc constellation.
The Tu-214R plane is a masterpiece of design, engineered for digital and optical reconnaissance. Furnished with an AESA conformal radar and a high-resolution optoelectronics system, it excels at figuring out floor targets.
This product of rigorous engineering was commissioned for SMO utilization in September of 2022. Though Russia’s stock was initially restricted, the pool of obtainable plane for deployment might very nicely have grown.
One other noteworthy asset in Russia’s arsenal is the Orion MALE drone. Masterful at radar and optical reconnaissance, the drone has been strategically preserved from airborne assaults by not being utilized in offensive operations that might expose it to Ukraine’s air protection techniques.
There’s a good likelihood that Russia now possesses an ample variety of Orion drones to attain round the clock surveillance of the battleground. These drones can penetrate deep into Ukrainian territory whereas staying away from Ukrainian AD system ranges. With a 24-hour endurance and an working altitude of round 20,000 ft, they’re extremely efficient.
Lastly, Russia’s EKS Kupol [Dome] ballistic missile launch early warning system possible possesses the technological prowess to detect the launch of a GMLRS rocket. The Kupol system presently contains 6 Tundra satellites stationed in extremely elliptical Molniya orbits and geared up with ultra-sensitive IRS sensors.
This constellation, anticipated to quickly increase its ranks with 3 to 4 further satellites, boasts the capability to maintain a 24-hour look ahead to rocket launches, thus guaranteeing speedy counter-battery response.
The exact mechanisms by which Russia identifies HIMARS GMLRS launches stay a thriller. Nonetheless, it’s crystal clear that the nation’s capability to detect these launches is extra exact than something a WLR might produce, and can most certainly proceed to enhance.
Nothing is determined
Regardless of this, some obstacles nonetheless linger within the technique of neutralizing a HIMARS system assault, as evidenced by counter-battery fireplace footage.
One main problem lies within the restricted precision of counter-battery fireplace. The fusion of SATNAV and INS can solely yield an accuracy of round 10 meters at most, insufficient for sure fallout of HIMARS. Using cluster munition warheads on the rockets additionally doesn’t assure its destruction.
For assured destruction, the inclusion of terminal homing on rockets could be essential. Though this functionality could solely manifest in the long term, the rising menace confronted by US HIMARS techniques stationed behind Ukrainian traces already acts as a vital verify on their utilization.
Ought to the rumored obliteration of two US HIMARS launchers show correct, it might sign yet one more ominous omen of a doable Ukrainian capitulation come 2024.
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