The US was in a position to shortly verify the demise of the Islamic State’s chief in southern Syria this previous October as a result of it had his DNA and different biometric information on file from an encounter with him from lengthy earlier than he took the helm of the phobia group.
U.S. officers are nonetheless refusing to share the true identification of the person identified to many of the world solely by his nom-de-guerre, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Qurashi.
However a U.S. navy official advised VOA that Abu al-Hassan was one of many final of the group’s legacy leaders, round since its founding, and that along with his demise, management of IS has handed to a brand new technology.
“The ideology is non-constraining, so there’s a new group of leaders,” the official stated on the situation of anonymity with a purpose to focus on the intelligence.
IS’ new chief, Abu al-Hussein al-Husseini al-Qurashi, is “not from the unique group,” the official added, warning that the group, regardless of its weakened state, has maintained its means to organize for management losses.
“As these [new] leaders are killed, there are people who find themselves educated and able to come behind them,” the official stated.
That means has been crucial to IS’ survival, which has seen its forces whittled down from tens of hundreds of fighters through the peak of its self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria, to as few as 6,000 now.
U.S. and coalition efforts have likewise eliminated a sequence of key IS officers from the battlefield via a sequence of airstrikes and arrests.
Since final February, when a U.S. particular forces raid led to the demise of IS chief Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurashi, also called Hajji ‘Abdallah, at the very least six different senior IS officers have been killed or detained.
Simply this previous September, U.S. Nationwide Counterterrorism Middle Director Christine Abizaid described Islamic State as being pressured to enter survival mode because of “main expertise loss.”
“Provided that two ISIS leaders have been killed in lower than one 12 months, the group is at a nadir,” Colin Clarke, director of analysis on the international intelligence agency The Soufan Group, advised VOA, utilizing an acronym for the phobia group.
“It stays harmful, however nowhere close to as succesful because it was even simply two or three years in the past,” he added.
The success of the U.S. and its associate forces in focusing on and eliminating IS leaders throughout northern Syria could also be one purpose Abu al-Hassan took refuge in southern Syria, the place the phobia group is believed to have just some hundred fighters.
Nonetheless, Abu al-Hassan’s presence in Daraa took many without warning.
U.S. officers inform VOA the Free Syrian Army contacted them via an middleman as a result of whereas its leaders knew they had been going after senior IS officers, they had been not sure of whom had truly been killed.
And there are some doubts about whether or not IS will proceed to make use of southern Syria as a refuge.
U.S. officers “have not seen a widespread motion” of IS to that a part of the nation, the senior navy official advised VOA. “That is maybe an anomaly.”
U.S. officers even have warned that the core group, weakened as it could be, stays a critical long-term risk. They level to the hundreds of IS fighters languishing in prisons throughout northeastern Syria and to the group’s means to unfold its ideology at displaced individuals camps like al-Hol and al-Roj, described by some as a “breeding floor” for the following technology of jihadi fighters.
“ISIS is ready to proceed to recruit and exchange its leaders,” stated Myles Caggins, a senior fellow on the Washington-based New Traces Institute and a former spokesperson for the U.S.-led coalition, utilizing one other acronym for the phobia group.
Caggins advised VOA that whereas the effectiveness of most of the IS leaders “has diminished vastly” for the reason that peak of its self-proclaimed caliphate, it has not diminished the general zeal of the group’s followers.
“We’ve got seen ISIS members in West Africa, in addition to in Southwest Asia, pledge allegiance to the brand new caliphate,” he stated. “That is only a signal that the world should proceed to concentrate.”
Different analysts echo the considerations.
Islamic State is “not primarily based off of form of a charismatic management mannequin,” Aaron Zelin, a fellow on the Washington Institute for Close to East Coverage who focuses on jihadism, advised VOA.
“It is primarily based off extra of a legalistic management mannequin that means the chief itself does not actually matter,” Zelin stated. “For them, it is sort of irrelevant who it’s as long as, you realize, the central management within the Shura Council says that that is the man and that he has the legit credentials, individuals will comply with him.”
Others warn the brand new management shouldn’t be underestimated.
“Concentrating on management yields short-term advantages for counterterrorism and primarily manages the risk, however for a gaggle like ISIS [it] won’t be sufficient to finish the risk, one thing the U.S. ought to have discovered after almost twenty years focusing on terrorist leaders in Iraq,” Katherine Zimmerman, a fellow on the American Enterprise Institute, advised VOA by way of textual content.
“Killing off the so-called legacy leaders merely brings to energy the following technology, who’ve discovered the teachings of their predecessors and can carry the black flag ahead,” she famous.
