By Ko Oo 10 November 2022
In Kachin State in northern Myanmar, the army regime is going through an growing risk from its previous enemy, the Kachin Independence Army (KIA).
The KIA strenuously objected when the Myanmar army seized energy in a coup final yr. When the army carried out brutal crackdowns on peaceable anti-coup protests, the armed group warned that it might reply if unarmed protesters had been shot in Kachin.
The ethnic armed group did because it mentioned, and began by seizing the regime’s Alaw Bum hill-top base in March final yr, which earned the KIA public assist and a spotlight.
The regime has suffered heavy casualties trying to retake the bottom, however all to no avail to date.
The KIA has additionally offered shelter for placing authorities workers who evaded arrest by the junta, in addition to political dissidents. It additionally took an energetic half in forming the parallel Nationwide Unity Authorities.
Extra importantly, the armed group offered shelter, army coaching and arms for younger individuals from totally different elements of the nation who determined to take up arms towards the regime after it brutally slaughtered their family members and associates.
The KIA’s help compelled the tempo on the event of the armed resistance motion in Sagaing, Magwe and Mandalay areas in addition to Chin State in northwest Myanmar.
Within the early days of the armed resistance, the regime boasted that it might crush the resistance in Sagaing inside six months. However the reverse is going on, due to the bravery and sacrifices of native individuals, and the KIA has additionally performed a component.
This has earned the KIA public assist not solely from locals in northern Myanmar however from individuals in Mandalay, Magwe and Sagaing areas in central Myanmar, which in flip bolsters its political picture.
Throughout a ceasefire with the Myanmar army that spanned 17 years from 1994 to 2011, the armed group grew financially and militarily, establishing a parallel administration which consists of faculties, courts and public service departments.
The KIA is made up of 10 brigades—three of which (4, 6 and 10) are energetic in northern Shan State. In Kachin it has seven brigades, two infantry divisions and an artillery division. In complete these comprise 24 native battalions, 27 cell battalions, 5 artillery battalions and three particular battalions. The KIA reportedly has greater than 600 officers.
Kachin State is the third-largest area in Myanmar, and is a largely forested space with quite a few rivers and creeks.
The Northern Command of the Myanmar army oversees Kachin State, and is headquartered in Myitkyina, the capital of Kachin. An air drive base is positioned in Myitkyina with a squadron of helicopters, and the bottom can be used to refuel fighter jets and bombers.
Myitkyina can be dwelling to artillery and drone models, fight assist models, a army coaching heart and a army hospital. Numerous junta armored automobiles have just lately arrived in Myitkyina, and cantonments are so overcrowded that tanks must be housed within the district-level hearth workplace.
The KIA is headquartered in Laiza on the China-Myanmar border east of Myitkyina. Laiza can be dwelling to different civil service places of work and army models together with an artillery division, army hospital, and officer coaching faculty. There may be reportedly additionally an ordnance manufacturing facility close to the KIA headquarters.
In the meantime, the regime has native ethnic militia teams underneath its management in Kachin, together with Pangwa militias led by infamous warlord Zakhung Ting Ying in Pangwa; Lisu militias in Waingmaw; and Shanni militias alongside the Tanai-Hpakant highway.
The Myanmar army has a complete of 75 infantry battalions plus quite a lot of artillery battalions and fight assist models throughout Kachin State. In addition to them, it additionally has militia teams talked about above and three Border Guard Pressure (BGF) battalions.
Junta battalions are nicely positioned to take management of main cities and routes in Kachin State. It has additionally constructed bases in Hpakant, Myanmar’s jade-mining hub.
The KIA alternatively controls rural elements and is exploiting the forested and mountainous terrain of Kachin to poses threats to the regime.
The armed group controls many jade, amber and gold mines in Kachin, a significant supply of revenue for it. Total, the KIA is energetic throughout Kachin and poses threats to junta troops throughout the state.
To date, the assault on the Alaw Bum base has been the one army operation instantly commanded by the KIA headquarters. Different operations over the previous 20 months had been carried out by brigades in their very own territories.
Steady clashes have been reported in Putao, Sumprabum, Tanai, Hpakant, Waingmaw, Bhamo and alongside the Irrawaddy River between Myitkyina and Katha.
There have been no large-scale assaults on the regime for the reason that seizure of Alaw Bum base. However on the similar time, the regime can’t conduct large-scale assaults on the KIA both.
The regime is overstretched, because it has been combating on a number of fronts throughout the nation for the reason that coup. So, it dares not mobilize its battalions from one space to conduct maneuvers in one other, as a result of doing so dangers dropping floor within the first.
As such, the regime has been compelled to type new models out of fight assist models and forces from the rear to fill gaps. Below such circumstances, it’s fairly unlikely that the regime would use three or 4 divisions and its Navy Operations Command to launch a large-scale assault in a selected space.
Battalions underneath the Northern Command did ship troops to conduct some army operations in Hpakant, Tanai, Putao and within the east of Waingmaw. However the assaults had been neither large-scale nor lengthy.
The regime attacked the KIA’s Lung Ja Bum base within the east of Momauk across the finish of October. This was a medium-scale operation. Once more, it was not performed by battalions underneath the Northern Command alone.
Two tactical instructions underneath the seventh Navy Operations Command based mostly in Shan State’s Pekon had been used to strengthen junta bases within the space earlier than the deliberate assault. Some 600 troops from six battalions of the Northern Command had been then dispatched on the fight mission, assisted by air and artillery assist.
The regime mentioned it managed to grab the KIA base within the assault, however the KIA dismissed the declare. It’s truthful to say the KIA and the Kachin Folks’s Protection Pressure (KPDF), which operates underneath the KIA’s command, are sufficiently well-prepared and well-equipped to repulse small- and medium-scale regime assaults.
The heaviest losses sustained by the KIA for the reason that coup had been because of junta bombings on ANang Pa in Hpakant. The commander of the KIA’s Brigade 9 died within the air raid. Earlier, KIA Brigade 8 deputy commander was arrested. However such assaults by the regime are nonetheless removed from inflicting devastating harm to the KIA.
There have been experiences that the regime is planning to conduct an aerial assault on the KIA’s headquarters in Laiza. However such experiences usually are not new.
The KIA has grown in quantity as a result of KPDF forces, which have a powerful presence alongside the Mogaung-Hopin-Mohnyin-Namar highway and railroad.
Reviews from the bottom say junta troops dare not transcend Nan Yin Creek within the east of Mohnyin and Hopin, with the KIA apparently taking management of a spot domestically often known as Kauk Kwe Kwin between Myitkyina-Yangon railroad and the Irrawaddy River.
Over the previous 20 months for the reason that Alaw Bum combating, the KIA has additionally fought in neighboring Sagaing, other than coaching PDFs. There have been large-scale assaults in Pinlebu and Banmauk. Twenty months is sufficient to practice and arm the KPDFs in Kachin.
So, we will anticipate to see main assaults in Kachin quickly.
Ko Oo is an ethnic affairs analyst.
