ISW Replace, June 24, 2022
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces continued to drive north to Lysychansk and have possible encircled Ukrainian troops in Hirske-Zolote.
- Ukrainian officers introduced that Ukrainian forces are preventing their final battles within the industrial zone of Severodonetsk earlier than withdrawing from the town.
- Russian forces carried out unsuccessful offensive operations west of Izyum and north of Slovyansk. Russian forces will possible prioritize encircling Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk and interdicting remaining GLOCs northwest of the town earlier than resuming a full-scale offensive operation on Slovyansk.
- Ukrainian forces are persevering with to launch counteroffensive operations alongside the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border and are threatening Russian forces in Kherson Metropolis.
- Ukrainian partisans continued to assault Russian collaborators in Kherson Metropolis.
Ukrainian officers ordered a managed withdrawal of troops from Severodonetsk on June 24. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai introduced that Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from “damaged positions” in Severodonetsk to forestall additional personnel losses and keep a stronger protection elsewhere.[1] Severodonetsk Regional Navy Administration Head Roman Vlasenko said that a number of Ukrainian items stay in Severodonetsk as of June 24, however Ukrainian forces will full the total withdrawal in “just a few days.”[2] An unnamed Pentagon official famous that Ukrainian withdrawal from Severodonetsk will permit Ukrainian troops to safe higher defensive positions and additional put on down Russian manpower and gear.[3] The Pentagon official famous that Russian forces pushing on Severodonetsk already present indicators of “put on and tear” and “debilitating morale,” which is able to solely additional sluggish Russian offensive operations in Donbas. Russian forces have been making an attempt to grab Severodonetsk since a minimum of March 13, exhausting their forces and gear over three months.[4]
Ukrainian forces will possible keep their defenses round Lysychansk and proceed to exhaust Russian troops after the autumn of Severodonetsk. Ukrainian forces will occupy larger floor in Lysychansk, which can permit them to repel Russian assaults for a while if the Russians are unable to encircle or isolate them. Russian forces in Severodonetsk may even want to finish river crossings from the east, which would require extra effort and time. Luhansk Folks’s Republic (LNR) Head Leonid Pasechnik claimed that Russian forces will fully encircle Lysychansk within the subsequent two or three days after absolutely interdicting Ukrainian floor traces of communications (GLOCs).[5] Russian forces have efficiently secured entry to Ukrainian GLOCs alongside the Hirske-Lysychansk freeway by breaking by means of Hirske on June 24, however Russian forces might want to lower Ukrainian logistics routes from Bakhmut and Siversk to totally isolate Lysychansk. Russian forces are prone to face challenges finishing a bigger encirclement round Lysychansk as a consequence of a failed river crossing in Bilohorivka, northwest of Lysychansk, in early Could. Ukrainian forces will possible conduct a deliberate withdrawal from Lysychansk if Russian forces threaten Ukrainian strongholds within the space.
Ukrainian intelligence warned that Russian forces will perform false-flag assaults in Belarus to attract Belarusian forces into the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainian Navy Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian sabotage teams and mercenaries arrived in Mozyr, Belarus, to detonate condominium buildings and civilian infrastructure across the metropolis.[6] The GUR famous that Russian saboteurs will observe a sample much like condominium bombings in Chechnya within the early 2000s. Ukrainian officers have beforehand reported on attainable false-flag assaults in Belarus all through the previous 4 months.
Unidentified assailants resumed assaults towards Russian army recruitment facilities on June 24, indicating intensifying discontent with covert mobilization. Russian outlet Baza reported two incidents the place unknown attackers threw Molotov Cocktails at army recruitment workplaces in Belgorod Metropolis and Perm on June 24.[7] Baza additionally reported that Belgorod Oblast Police began a seek for 4 contract servicemen—one sergeant and three abnormal troopers–who’ve abandoned their army unit stationed in Belgorod Oblast.[8]
Authors: Kateryna Stepanenko, Mason Clark, George Barros, and Grace Mappes
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