Pentagon leaders are more and more involved a couple of potential Turkish navy invasion in northern Syria and have begun planning for the way it might impression the U.S. battle towards the Islamic State terrorist group, in response to two senior administration officers and two protection officers.
The primary concern is that any Turkish navy motion into Syria would draw the U.S. companion, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), away from the battle towards ISIS, the officers stated.
“We strongly oppose any Turkish operation into northern Syria and have made clear our objections to Turkey,” Dana Stroul, deputy assistant secretary of protection for the Center East, stated Wednesday throughout a dialogue on the Center East Institute, a D.C.-based suppose tank. “Such an operation places in danger U.S. forces’ coalition marketing campaign towards ISIS and can introduce extra violence into Syria.”
She warned that Turkish navy operations might trigger the SDF to give attention to shifting north to guard their communities from an air marketing campaign or a floor marketing campaign, leaving a vacuum that would enable ISIS to regroup.
“There’s solely so many SDF to go round,” Stroul stated.
Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin was briefed in regards to the potential invasion earlier this week. He instructed employees to organize a U.S. response to Turkish navy motion and to supply extra details about the way it might impression the U.S. mission in Syria, in response to the officers.
On Might 23, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated his navy was getting ready for an operation in northern Syria with the objective of increasing a 30-kilometer (19 mile) safety zone that extends south from the Turkish border. The zone was established after one other Turkish navy operation in 2019.
The brand new navy marketing campaign might contain tens of hundreds of Turkish troops and Syrian fighters, in response to Turkish officers, who preserve that an ethnic Kurdish group referred to as the Individuals’s Safety Units, or YPG, is attacking Turkish forces. The YPG have been on the entrance traces within the battle towards ISIS, however Erdogan views the group as a terrorist group and equal to PKK Kurdish separatists, who’re blamed for assaults inside Turkey.
The Pentagon is especially involved in regards to the makeshift prisons the SDF oversees in northeast Syria, in response to the senior administration and protection officers. These detention amenities home greater than 10,000 ISIS fighters, in response to the Division of Protection. The SDF can also be answerable for safety on the al-Hol and Azraq camps that home greater than 60,000 displaced individuals, lots of whom are believed to be ISIS sympathizers.
If the SDF strikes north to counter a Turkish navy invasion, tens of hundreds of ISIS fighters and sympathizers might probably be launched, the officers stated.
Earlier this yr, ISIS attacked the biggest detention facility in northeast Syria in Hassakeh, releasing hundreds of ISIS fighters. Whereas many had been recaptured or killed, others escaped and the SDF suffered quite a few casualties within the battle.
Stroul warned that ISIS desires to duplicate that assault and launch extra fighters.
“We now have seen ISIS’ dedication to concentrating on these amenities,” she stated. “There isn’t any doubt that the group will attempt to exploit them once more in the event that they understand much less counterterrorism strain in Syria.”
A spokesperson for the Turkish Embassy in Washington didn’t instantly reply to a request for remark.
“A Turkish incursion wherever into northern Syria would have devastating humanitarian penalties and pose a critical threat to our counter-ISIS marketing campaign,” a senior administration official stated in a press release to NBC News.
The U.S. navy at present has about 900 troops in northeastern Syria, many partnered with the SDF, offering air assist, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, and coaching. The U.S. does conduct unilateral missions however most counter-ISIS missions are partnered with the SDF.
With out the SDF companions, the present U.S. troop footprint will not be ample to proceed the counter-ISIS mission, securing the detention amenities and the camps for displaced individuals, and offering power safety for U.S. personnel, in response to two protection officers. However the Biden administration shouldn’t be more likely to ship extra troops to Syria, in response to the 2 senior administration officers and two protection officers.
On the similar time, the administration would unlikely lower the U.S. presence there, the officers stated, partly to keep away from the criticism that Washington is as soon as once more abandoning its companions in Syria. Former President Donald Trump briefly pulled U.S. troops in another country in 2019.
With no change in U.S. presence however a probably very completely different operational image after a Turkish invasion, the counter-ISIS mission would both come to a halt or give the terrorist group a bonus.
“Any new offensive will additional undermine stability within the space and put in danger U.S. forces and the coalition’s marketing campaign,” Stroul stated Wednesday.
Protection officers warn that ISIS stays an actual risk and with out strain from coalition operations in Syria, it might develop and current a risk to the area and past.
Officers additionally concern {that a} Turkish invasion might push the U.S.-allied SDF to companion with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad within the battle towards Turkey.
The U.S. navy wouldn’t interact in fight towards Turkey, a NATO ally, so the SDF would want logistical and different assist and will look to their foe, the Assad regime. And if Turkey invades with out coordinating with the U.S. and different allies, the danger of an accident and escalation grows, in response to the officers, because the U.S. navy and allies have troops and air belongings in northern Syria.
