Issued on:
Baghdad (AFP) – After artillery bombardment killed 9 folks in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan area, Baghdad referred to as for a withdrawal of Turkish forces and stated Ankara ought to deal with its “home issues” with PKK rebels removed from Iraq’s borders.
However with Turkey a regional financial, navy and diplomatic energy, can a weakened Iraq extricate itself from the decades-old struggle between Ankara and Kurdish rebels?
AFP seems at what’s at stake:
What’s the Turkish presence?
For the previous 25 years, the Turkish military has maintained about 40 outposts throughout Iraq’s Kurdish north, the place it has carried out a number of operations towards the Kurdistan Staff’ Celebration (PKK), which Ankara and its Western allies checklist as a “terrorist” organisation.
The rebels have saved up a lethal insurgency for Kurdish self-rule in southeastern Turkey since 1984. They depend on rear bases and coaching camps hidden within the mountains of Iraqi Kurdistan.
Turkey additionally considers the Kurdish Individuals’s Safety Units (YPG) in neighbouring Syria an extension of the PKK and has launched offensives there as nicely.
“Since 2020, Turkey’s air strikes and navy floor operations towards the PKK in northern Iraq have intensified,” stated Shivan Fazil, of the Stockholm Worldwide Peace Analysis Institute.
Figures are laborious to confirm however open sources point out Turkey has “a everlasting deployment of 5,000–10,000 troopers in Iraqi territory,” based on evaluation by Salim Cevik revealed by the German Institute for Worldwide and Safety Affairs.
“At present, most navy conflicts between Turkey’s military and the PKK happen on Iraqi and Syrian soil,” Cevik wrote, noting that “the usage of drones specifically has seemed to be very efficient in limiting the PKK’s logistics and manoeuvrability within the area.”
Civilians get caught within the crossfire, together with on Wednesday when the 9 — together with ladies and kids — had been killed.
Iraq blamed Turkey, which denied its troops had been accountable and accused the PKK.
“Shelling and bombing have repeatedly resulted in civilian casualties, destruction of houses and livelihoods, triggering the displacement of villagers,” stated Fazil.
What are the broader implications?
Baghdad needs Turkish forces out of its territory, however for this to occur, Fazil stated Ankara “would possibly require the Iraqi authorities to expel the PKK”.
“Does the Iraqi authorities have the capability to reassert that form of territorial sovereignty over its borders and expel armed non-state actors?” requested Fazil.
Iraq has solely a caretaker authorities, as 9 months after elections political events have been unable to agree on forming a brand new administration. The nation is beset by corruption and making an attempt to beat a long time of struggle and unrest.
The problem has ramifications far past Iraq’s borders. NATO member Turkey has demanded the extradition of dozens of suspected “terrorists” from Finland and Sweden to ensure that it to ratify their membership bids within the alliance.
Turkey can also be threatening a brand new offensive towards the Individuals’s Safety Units in Syria. They’re the principal part of the autonomous Kurds’ de facto military, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which offered essential help to a US-led coalition towards jihadists of the Islamic State group.
The indignant demonstrations that erupted in Iraq after the 9 civilians died additionally touched on one other supply of rigidity. Iraqis blame Turkey’s dams for lowering the stream of water into the rivers of their parched nation.
This anger will doubtless be short-lived, stated Marsin Alshamary of the Harvard Kennedy College’s Center East Initiative.
“I feel that the general public anger will lead to a items and journey boycott, however I do not suppose it will likely be long-lasting as long as extra Iraqis do not die,” she stated, noting the consumer-driven financial relationship between the 2 international locations.
“Iraqis are the second-largest group of international owners in Turkey.”
Intra-Kurd tensions?
In Iraqi Kurdistan, fight has moved away from the border deeper into Iraqi territory and populated areas.
However it’s tough for the area in charge Ankara, given their necessary financial ties — particularly the necessity for oil from Iraqi Kurdistan to move by way of Turkish pipelines on the way in which to export markets.
There are additionally tensions between the Kurdish Democratic Celebration (KDP), whose stronghold is the regional capital Arbil, and the PKK.
Fazil famous skirmishes between the 2 armed teams in 2020 and final 12 months, heightening fears of open battle.
“The PKK accuse the KDP of aiding Turkey’s operations,” the researcher stated, whereas the latter insists the rebels’ presence within the Kurdistan area of Iraq “invitations Turkey’s assaults.”
© 2022 AFP
