Iran Disaster Replace, October 9

October 9, 6:00 pm ET

The Iran Disaster Updates are produced by the Important Threats Challenge (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute with help from the Institute for the Examine of Struggle (ISW).

To obtain Iran Disaster Updates through e mail, please subscribe right here.

Iran could also be getting ready to escalate militarily in opposition to its international adversaries, together with the US, in response to the continuing, anti-regime protests. Doubtless Iranian-backed militants performed a rocket assault in opposition to a US army base in northeastern Syria on October 8. Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei and different senior political and safety officers have accused the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia of coopting and stoking the protests in latest days.[i] Senior Iranian army officers launched a press release vowing to retaliate on October 6.[ii] Iranian forces or proxies could conduct further assaults in opposition to US positions within the Center East, particularly in Iraq and Syria, in response to what they declare is Washington’s position within the protests.

Iranian proxies may additionally escalate in opposition to Turkey to redirect Iraqi resentment over Iranian assaults into Iraqi Kurdistan towards Ankara somewhat than Tehran. Doubtless Iranian-backed Iraqi militants performed a rocket assault on a Turkish army base in Mosul Province on October 8.[iii] Liwa Ahrar al Iraq—a entrance group that Iranian-backed Iraqi militants use to assert assaults in opposition to Turkish forces —claimed duty. Iranian-backed Iraqi militants continuously used Liwa Ahrar al Iraq to assert assaults in opposition to Turkish positions throughout a interval of escalatory assaults in June and July 2022.[iv] The Iraqi public and political institution rallied in opposition to Turkey and its assaults into Iraqi Kurdistan throughout this era. Liwa Ahrar al Iraq resurfacing to assert assaults on Turkish forces could point out that Iran and its proxies are getting ready to escalate in opposition to Turkish forces and search to once more divert Iraqi residents’ and officers’ anger towards Ankara somewhat than Tehran.

Iran could also be getting ready to conduct a floor incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan to assault anti-regime Kurdish militant teams working there. The IRGC Floor Forces performed day by day artillery, drone, and missile assaults in opposition to Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan from September 26 to October 7.[v] An IRGC-affiliated social media account tweeted on October 8 the threaten that IRGC armored and particular forces items would intervene in opposition to these militant teams if Iraqi Kurdish political authorities don’t take away these teams from the border area.[vi] IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Company echoed this risk on October 9.[vii] Social media rumors on October 9 alleged that the IRGC has begun concentrating forces in Baneh, Kurdistan Province close to the Iran-Iraq border.[viii] CTP is unable to corroborate these rumors right now.

Key Takeaways

• Anti-regime protests occurred in at the very least 18 cities in 15 provinces.
• Anti-regime group The Neighborhood Youth of Tehran introduced their enlargement to different unnamed cities in Iran.
• Some low-level army and safety personnel could have defected.
• Iranian management could have ordered the IRGC Floor Forces to take part immediately within the protest crackdown.

Supreme Chief Succession

There was nothing important to report as we speak.

Anti-Regime Protests

Anti-regime protests occurred in at the very least 18 cities in 15 totally different provinces on October 9. Protest exercise on October 9 declined considerably from its October 8 peak. Protesters however sustained large-scale demonstrations with out evident superior planning—in contrast to the preplanned October 8 protests—and regardless of the regime’s more and more violent suppression techniques. The October 9 protests continued to function a broad swath of the Iranian inhabitants, together with marginalized ethnic teams, city elite, college students, and Iran’s service provider class.

CTP assesses with excessive and medium confidence that protests occurred within the following areas:

• Karak, Alborz Province
• Najafabad, Esfahan Province
• Gorgan, Golestan Province
• Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province (violence reported)
• Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province
• Mashhad, Khorasan Razavi Province
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Arak, Markazi Province
• Qazvin, Qazvin Province
• Tehran, Tehran Province
• Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province
• Zanjan, Zanjan Province

CTP assesses with low confidence that protests occurred within the following areas:

• Rasht, Gilan Province
• Yasuj, Kohgiluyeh and Boyed Ahmad Province
• Babol, Mazandaran Province (violence reported)
• Bukan, West Azerbaijan Province
• Piranshahr, West Azerbaijan Province

Anti-regime group The Neighborhood Youth of Tehran introduced its enlargement to different unnamed cities in Iran.[ix] The group has participated in organizing protests in latest weeks.

Some low-level Iranian army and safety personnel could have defected to the protesters. A Persian-language social media account tweeted on October 8 that the regime has arrested some officers from the Artesh Floor Forces 21^st Hamzeh Infantry Division, which is headquartered close to Tabriz.[x] Movies on social media depict LEC officers marching with protesters round Tehran on October 9.[xi] CTP can not confirm the authenticity of those movies nor whether or not the officers had been becoming a member of the protests or just escorting them. Parliamentarian and former IRGC officer Brigadier Normal Mohammad Esmail Kowsari acknowledged that the regime ought to maintain accountable safety personnel who don’t fulfill their duties, suggesting that there are such personnel.[xii]

Iranian management could have ordered the IRGC Floor Forces to help the protest crackdown immediately. Protesters killed a member of the IRGC Floor Forces 22^nd Beyt ol Moghaddas Operational Division in Sanandaj on October 8.[xiii] Iranian state media reported that the guardsmen was killed whereas making an attempt to disperse protesters and defend property. One other guardsman was injured. An unverified social media account tweeted that the IRGC Floor Forces deployed the 27^th Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Operational Division and 10^th Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Division in Tehran.[xiv]

The deployment of the IRGC Floor Forces would point out that the regime considers the protests a particularly severe risk. The IRGC Floor Forces is the regime’s final line of protection in opposition to inner unrest and probably the most distinguished inner safety service after the Legislation Enforcement Command (LEC) and Basij Group.[xv]

The IRGC Floor Forces would seemingly use excessive power to suppress protests. IRGC Floor Forces items are geared up with armored and mechanized autos and the total panoply of apparatus appropriate for insurgency, counterinsurgency, and mechanized battle. The regime used the IRGC Floor Forces briefly throughout the countrywide gasoline protests in November 2019. These forces deployed to Mahshahr, Khuzestan Province, the place they killed round 148 protesters.[xvi] The deployment of components of a number of IRGC Floor Forces divisions, if confirmed, would point out that the regime has grown very alarmed about its capability to regulate the continuing demonstrations and will counsel that it’s getting ready to make use of better ranges of brutality to suppress them.

Radio Farda reported that forces from the LEC Particular Units transferred from Zahedan to Kerman.[xvii] The LEC Particular Units is a extremely skilled, anti-riot power that deploys when common police can not comprise protests.[xviii] This LEC department is named some of the ideologically fervent within the Iranian armed forces. A regime resolution to deploy the LEC Particular Units away from Zahedan can be shocking given the latest lethal unrest there and express threats from anti-regime militant teams to escalate additional. The IRGC Floor Forces might deploy its 110^th Salman Farsi Unbiased Special Forces Brigade, which is headquartered in Zahedan, to suppress protests instead of the LEC Particular Units if it felt the state of affairs merited such power.[xix]

A preferred English-language social media account tweeted that the Workplace of the Supreme Chief dismissed a few of its safety personnel and changed them with a brand new cadre of officers.[xx] CTP can not confirm this rumor.

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

There was nothing important to report as we speak.

View Citations