Iran Disaster Replace, October 11

October 11, 6:00 PM ET

The Iran Disaster Updates are produced by the Essential Threats Mission (CTP) on the American Enterprise Institute with help from the Institute for the Examine of Conflict (ISW). To obtain Iran Disaster Updates by way of e-mail, please subscribe right here.

Unconfirmed stories recommend that the Iranian regime is amassing army and safety forces in Kurdistan Province to violently suppress protests and probably additionally to conduct a floor operation into Iraqi Kurdistan.[1] Social media rumors reported on October 10 that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Regulation Enforcement Command (LEC) have transferred forces from Hamedan, Yazd, and elsewhere to Sanandaj, the place the regime is conducting a brutal crackdown.[2] Anti-regime outlet IranWire and a UK-based Sky News journalist reported that the regime is concentrating forces in Kurdistan Province.[3]

CTP can not confirm these stories and advises warning when evaluating these stories in gentle of the various, often-conflicting, info operations being carried out by the regime and its opponents.

Violent clashes between protesters and state safety providers in Kurdistan Province occurred on October 10 and 11.[4] Social media observers described Sanandaj as a “battle zone,” an outline that coheres with out there photos and movies of the clashes.[5]

The regime might use forces concentrated within the border area to conduct a floor incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan in opposition to anti-regime Kurdish militant teams. Iranian political and safety officers have repeatedly accused these teams of coopting and stoking the protests in opposition to the regime. Inside Minister Ahmad Vahidi reiterated this accusation on October 11.[6] The IRGC carried out every day artillery, drone, and missile assaults in opposition to anti-regime Kurdish militant positions in Iraqi Kurdistan from September 26 to October 7.[7] A Telegram channel run by Iranian proxies in Iraq posted on October 11 that the IRGC is conducting a floor incursion however shortly deleted the put up.[8]

The stories that the regime might conduct a floor incursion into Iraqi Kurdistan could also be an Iranian info operation. An unidentified supply instructed anti-regime outlet Iran Worldwide that the IRGC is conducting such an info operation aimed toward anti-regime Kurdish militants in Iraqi Kurdistan probably to scare them away from the border and disrupt their operations.

The focus of safety forces in Kurdistan Province might exacerbate Iranian safety forces’ bandwidth points—a key vulnerability within the regime’s inside safety equipment. The regime depends on a small quantity choose, extremely ideological items from the IRGC, Basij, and LEC to crack down on unrest and thus doesn’t have sufficient manpower to cowl your entire nation.[9] The regime shuffles its forces to the place they’re wanted most—usually the restive border areas—when protests erupt.[10]

Simultaneous protests within the border areas and main cities pressure these forces—a vulnerability that protesters and different anti-regime teams might search to use. Anti-regime, Persian-language social media accounts have known as for protester solidarity with the demonstrators in Sanandaj and Zahedan.[11] Lethal clashes erupted between protesters and safety forces in Zahedan on September 30.[12]

Unobserved indications that the safety forces are experiencing bandwidth points embody:

• Stories of safety forces transferring away from cities the place there are ongoing protests
• Stories of the regime utilizing the Artesh—its typical army—and international proxies on a large-scale for protest suppression.

Anti-regime protests continued in a minimum of 16 cities in 11 provinces on October 11 and will broaden within the days forward. English- and Persian-language social media accounts have known as for protests throughout Iran on October 12 and 13.[13] Protesters have already demonstrated that they’ll coordinate large-scale demonstrations and will once more achieve doing so within the coming days.

Key Takeaways

Supreme Chief Succession

There was nothing vital to report at the moment.

Anti-Regime Protests

Anti-regime protests occurred in a minimum of 16 cities in 11 totally different provinces on October 11. Iranian safety forces are persevering with to make use of violent and deadly means to suppress protests, significantly in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province. Anti-regime teams have known as for demonstrations on October 12 and protest exercise will seemingly enhance in measurement and scale on this date. CTP assesses that protests occurred within the following areas on October 11:

• Borazjan, Bushehr Province
• Tabriz, East Azerbaijan Province
• Esfahan Metropolis, Esfahan Province
• Najafabad, Esfahan Province (violence reported)
• Rasht, Gilan Province
• Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province
• Kermanshah, Kermanshah Province
• Abadan, Khuzestan Province
• Baneh, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Divandarreh, Kurdistan Province
• Saghez, Kurdistan Province
• Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province (violence reported)
• Qom Metropolis, Qom Province
• Marlik, Tehran Province
• Tehran Metropolis, Tehran Province
• Mahabad, West Azerbaijan Province

Iranian intelligence and safety officers have been getting into hospitals and surveilling pharmacies to establish and arrest injured protestors. CBS News reported that Iranian protestors injured in anti-regime demonstrations are avoiding searching for remedy at medical amenities for worry of being arrested by Iranian authorities, preferring dwelling remedy to hospitalization [14] Safety personnel have reportedly begun to station themselves in entrance of pharmacies in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province to establish injured protestors avoiding visiting medical amenities.[15] Some social media customers reported that pharmacies have restricted medical provides wanted by injured protestors, together with medical gauze, antibiotic serum, and lidocaine.[16] Iranian medical officers have issued a number of statements strongly condemning Iranian authorities’ hospital probes.[17]

Inside Minister Ahmad Vahidi met with senior provincial officers in Kurdistan Province because the regime struggles to comprise unrest in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province.[18] Iranian safety forces’ use of deadly drive in opposition to protestors in Sanandaj has did not curtail additional demonstrations.[19] Footage circulating on social media allegedly captured safety forces working away from protestors on October 11.[20] CTP can not confirm this footage. Vahidi warned Iranian youth in opposition to overthrowing the Islamic Republic—reflecting that the regime acknowledges the revolutionary nature of those protests and the menace it could pose.[21]

President Ebrahim Raisi held a cellphone name with the household of a Basij member killed in protests in Tehran.[22] Raisi praised the Basij members’ sacrifice and repair within the name. This cellphone name is very tone deaf on condition that Raisi has expressed little to no sympathy for the protesters. Raisi is probably going messaging inside regime audiences relatively than the protesters. He seemingly seeks to reaffirm his dedication to the safety institution and its leaders, who will play a important function in selecting the subsequent supreme chief. He additionally seemingly sought to sign help for the low-level safety personnel who’re reportedly experiencing exhaustion and low morale.[23]

Axis of Resistance and Regional Developments

The Iraqi parliament plans to pick a president throughout its upcoming October 13 session, and Iraqi nationalist and anti-corruption protesters might maintain renewed anti-Iran demonstrations in response. Iraqi Parliament Speaker Mohamed al Halbousi introduced throughout an October 11 parliamentary session that parliamentarians will reconvene for a session on October 13 to vote on a brand new Iraqi president.[24] Iraqi anti-corruption Tishreen motion protesters and supporters of Iraqi nationalist Shia cleric Moqtada al Sadr might play up anti-Iran sentiments—intensified by IRGC assaults into Iraqi Kurdistan and the Iranian regime‘s excessive mishandling of the protests—to stop progress on authorities formation.

View Citations