Russian President Vladimir Putin has been very clear about his primary targets in invading Ukraine: He desires to disarm the nation, sever its ties to the NATO navy alliance and finish the Ukrainian individuals’s aspirations of becoming a member of the West.
Whereas guessing precisely how he plans to execute that plan is a special matter, historical past can function a information for understanding Putin’s doable endgames.
Crimea annexation 2.0
If Russian forces are in a position to seize Ukraine’s port metropolis of Odessa, it is doable to think about a land bridge extending all the best way throughout southern Ukraine, doubtlessly even linking Transnistria — a separatist enclave in Moldova, the place Russian troops are stationed — to Odessa, Crimea and southern and jap Ukraine.
A partitioned Ukraine
If Putin has partition in thoughts, Galician Ukraine and the town of Lviv — near the Polish border — may doubtlessly be part of a type of rump Ukrainian state, whereas Russia focuses its attentions on the east of the nation.
A professional-Russian state
Western intelligence officers warn that Russia is planning to topple Ukraine’s democratically elected authorities, changing it with a puppet regime. Putin has steered he sees the present democratically elected authorities in Ukraine as illegitimate, and lamented the ousting of pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych in 2014. Ukraine does produce other politicians who is perhaps desirous to fill the ranks of a pro-Russian authorities, put in presumably by pressure.
An uneasy occupation
Russia says it would not wish to be an occupier, but it surely’s simple to think about a situation the place Russia tries to impose its type of heavy-handed rule on Ukraine. That may be exhausting tablet for Ukrainians to swallow as they’ve free press, freewheeling native politics and a convention of road protest. Within the Russian political system, real opposition protests are largely banned, or very troublesome to prepare.
A violent occupation
Putin has had no downside backing violent native strongmen with scant regard for human rights. His personal political rise started with the pacification of Chechnya, a breakaway republic in Russia’s north Caucasus.
A republic of worry
Russia has a fearsome home safety equipment that jails and persecutes dissidents and retains doubtlessly troublesome opponents out of politics. Ukrainians residing in Crimea — which was occupied by Russia in 2014 and annexed after a referendum extensively seen as a sham — skilled first-hand what it is wish to dwell in a state the place the FSB, Russia’s state safety service, is omnipotent.
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