Simply while you thought it couldn’t worsen for Russia —
That is out at this time from The Insider — Russian journalists of some reputation. theins.ru/…
I’m going to maintain my feedback actual quick on this — what they’re saying is really breathtaking. What they’re saying is that is a lot worse for Russia than simply this battle. Leaves them close to defenseless and Ukraine is aware of this full effectively — a part of their calculus for certain.
Highlights —
For Russia, six months of battle have led not solely to colossal irreplaceable losses in manpower, but in addition to an enormous waste of weapons and navy gear: guided missiles are already very scarce, shells for artillery and armored autos will probably be exhausted by the top of the 12 months, and the state of navy aviation precludes a full-scale air marketing campaign. Due to the sanctions, Russia can’t proceed full industrial manufacturing of weapons and replenish its arms stockpiles, that are quickly operating out….The issue is that Soviet artillery shells couldn’t be saved for lengthy and as early as summer season 2002, throughout the second Chechen marketing campaign, the Russian military confronted a scarcity of 122 mm and 152 mm shells…
About these artillery barrels (I discussed this earlier than ) –
And even when we assume that Russian troopers don’t neglect upkeep procedures for barrels and different gun mechanisms, and that Russia has an unknown, however not an infinite, variety of them in reserve (particularly on weapons from storage depots), by the top of 2022 put on and tear of artillery will result in a drastic discount in its effectiveness. As well as, the Russian navy itself cautiously identified issues with the survivability of artillery items as early as 2020, in addition to inadequate effectivity of the sphere upkeep and restore system for artillery items. (I don’t assume they’ll hit the broad aspect of a barn now — so to talk)
They’re screwed in armored autos too –
And even when the comparatively recent, even when not new, armored autos are introduced in from the navy items and storage depots, the lion’s share of them must be despatched for repairs by the top of 2022, offered they aren’t destroyed, if the excessive depth of fight operations continues. And right here it’s value repeating: the service lifetime of a tank gun can be finite.
And their air power isn’t going to be of a lot assist –
Every machine, even firstly of the aggression, when the Ukrainian air protection was much less organized than now, was making 1 or 2 fight sorties per day lasting 1-1.5 hours in whole. On the similar time at this time, bearing in mind losses and breakdowns, Russia continues to be capable of hold about 400 fight plane of various varieties and about 360 helicopters (not all of them are assault helicopters) close to the borders of Ukraine. However, Russia has not been capable of conduct a full-scale air marketing campaign because the begin of the battle, and now its capability for such a marketing campaign has solely shrunk.
They’d nonetheless have MLRS I suppose — however for the way lengthy?
The author is Pavel Luzin — I discover him goal and he backs up his work. Russia goes to expire of shells and their barrels are screwed in just a few months right here. Their air power is scared to enterprise into the AA battery areas, fairly clearly. As in — virtually received’t be capable of proceed the combat.
There are lots of causes I believe Russia is shedding this battle — however if this text is anyplace close to true Russia is totally and completely screwed — as in, they might lose extra than simply this battle. I strongly doubt Putin might even keep in energy. This has actually critical political penalties past this battle. Take into consideration Vlad’s little mischief on this planet — proper? Would Russia keep in league with China or “make-up” with the west? May a good tougher line SOB exchange Vlad? (although they received’t get a lot of a military — extra a toothless pariah state with lots of pissed of oligarchs)
Very attention-grabbing article contemplating the place it’s coming from — they know their tradition. I’m certain these journalists are actually pissed with Putin so contemplate that, nevertheless it doesn’t change the mathematics right here both. The Russian artillery based mostly battle dogma is totally ruined if that is proper, you know?
A few of you guys need to add tags or one thing — assist your self trigger I actually don’t care. To me all the pieces goes again to the very fact we had a traitor president. Every little thing.
The title I used is the title of the article by the way in which. I don’t assume he’s overstating it if that is true. And it certain seems to be prefer it to me. SO effectively thought out, so effectively written, so to the purpose.
