The takeaway from the US President Joe Biden’s European tour on March 25-26 is measly. Dissenting voices are rising in Europe as western sanctions in opposition to Russia begin backfiring with value hikes and shortages of gas and electrical energy. And that is solely the start, as Moscow is but to announce any retaliatory measures as such.
The unkindest lower of all of it is that the Russian Defence Ministry selected Biden’s journey as the right backdrop to border the true proportions of success of its particular operation in Ukraine. The US and NATO’s credibility is perilously near being irreparably broken, because the Russian juggernaut rolls throughout Ukraine with the dual aims of ‘demilitarisation’ and ‘denazification’ in its sights.
The Russian Basic Employees disclosed on Friday that the overestimated Ukrainian Armed Forces, educated by the NATO and the US, have sustained crippling losses: Ukrainian air drive and air defence is sort of fully destroyed, whereas the nation’s Navy not exists and about 11.5% of your complete navy personnel have been put out of motion. (Ukraine doesn’t have organised reserves.)
In line with the Russian Basic Employees’s deputy head Colonel Basic Sergey Rudskoy, Ukraine has misplaced a lot of its fight autos (tanks, armoured autos, and many others.), one-third of its a number of launch rocket techniques, and nicely over three-fourths of its missile air defence techniques and Tochka-U tactical missile techniques.
Sixteen fundamental navy airfields in Ukraine have been put out of motion, 39 storage bases and arsenals destroyed (which contained as much as 70% of all shares of navy gear, materiel and gas, and greater than 1 million 54,000 tons of ammunition.)
Apparently, following the extreme high-precision strikes on the bases and coaching camps, overseas mercenaries are leaving Ukraine. Throughout the previous week, 285 mercenaries escaped into Poland, Hungary and Romania. Russian forces are systematically destroying the Western cargo of weapons.
Most essential, the mission to liberate Donbass is about to be completed. Merely put, the primary aims of the primary section of the operation have been achieved.
Other than Kiev, Russian troops have blocked the northern and jap cities of Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Nikolaev, whereas within the south, Kherson and most of Zaporozhye area are underneath full management — the intention being to not solely to shackle Ukrainian forces however to stop their grouping in Donbass area. (See my article Dissecting Ukraine imbroglio, Tribune, March 21, 2022)
“We didn’t plan to storm these cities from the beginning, in an effort to forestall destruction and minimise losses amongst personnel and civilians,” Rudskoy mentioned. However, he added, such an possibility just isn’t dominated out both within the interval forward.
It stands to purpose that Washington and European capitals are nicely conscious that the Russian operation is continuing as scheduled and there’s no stopping it. Thus, the NATO’s extraordinary summit on March 24 confirmed that the alliance is unwilling to get right into a navy confrontation with the Russian Army.
As a substitute, the summit determined to strengthen the defence of its personal territories! 4 extra multinational NATO fight teams of 40,000 troops might be deployed in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia on a everlasting foundation. Poland’s proposal to deploy NATO navy items in Ukraine was outright rejected.
Nonetheless, Poland has sure different plans, particularly, to deploy contingents to the western areas of Ukraine to assist the ‘fraternal Ukrainian folks” with the unstated agenda of reclaiming management over the traditionally disputed territories in these areas. What Faustian deal has been struck in Warsaw on March 25 between Biden and his Polish counterpart, Duda, stays unclear. Clearly, vultures are circling Ukraine’s skies. (See my weblog Biden wings his option to the borderlands of Ukraine, March 24, 2022)
Certainly, if Poland makes a bid for Ukrainian territory (with Biden’s tacit assist), would Belarus be far behind to take management of the areas of Polesie and Volyn in Ukraine? Presumably not. Suffice to say, within the interval because the CIA-backed coup in Kiev in 2014 when the US moved into the driving seat, Ukraine has misplaced its sovereignty and is now perilously near vanishing altogether from Europe’s map!
Washington — Biden personally, having been the Obama administration’s level particular person in Kiev in 2014 — ought to carry this heavy cross in historical past books.
As for European leaders, they discover themselves in a surreal world, out of contact with the beautiful realities of a brand new world order. Eighty-year outdated Biden with restricted grasp of the torrential move of occasions, made an astounding proposal in his press convention in Brussels on Thursday that Ukraine ought to change Russia within the G20!
However Biden has a soulmate within the European Fee chief Ursula von der Leyen whose newest menace is that Russian oil and gasoline firms “won’t be allowed to demand fee for gas in roubles.” She is blissfully unaware that the EU has no simpler means to stress Russian firms!
Russian President Vladimir Putin caught the western leaders huddled in Brussels abruptly together with his announcement that Russia will promptly begin charging “unfriendly” international locations in rubles for gasoline provides. There are over 45 unfriendly international locations on the checklist — the US and EU members plus the UK, Australia, Canada, Singapore, Montenegro and Switzerland. (See the RT’s explainer What shopping for gasoline in rubles means for Russia and the West.)
Successfully, Moscow is on the one hand strengthening the weakened rouble, whereas then again, messaging that it’s pioneering a brand new wave internationally to bypass the greenback as commodity forex.
But, Moscow can also be persevering with to routinely provide Russian gasoline for transit to Europe via Ukraine to fulfill the requests of European customers (109.5 million cubic meters as of March 26!) The purpose is, regardless of rhetoric and grandstanding, Europe lately elevated its gasoline purchases from Russia considerably in opposition to the backdrop of astronomically excessive spot costs!
The European Council meet at Brussels on March 25 with Biden in attendance did not undertake any concrete measures to deal with the vitality value progress, and couldn’t provide you with a unified strategy to Russia’s determination to obtain funds for its gasoline solely in roubles.
Apropos the European Fee’s proposal to determine a brand new system of widespread buy of gasoline to stop outbidding, the ultimate assertion of the European Council merely says that the leaders agreed to “work collectively on voluntary widespread buy of gasoline, LNG and hydrogen,” which means that widespread purchases could also be carried out solely by these EU international locations who’re prepared to unite. [Emphasis added.]
It’s a lengthy haul for Europe to dispense with Russian gasoline. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic mentioned yesterday: “There are gasoline shortages, and that’s the reason we have to speak to Russians. Europe will transfer in direction of decreasing its dependence on the Russian gasoline, however can this occur within the coming years? That is very tough.”
“Europe consumes 500 billion cubic meters of gasoline, whereas America and Qatar can supply 15 billion, as much as the final molecule… That’s the reason German and Austrian politicians informed me: “We can not simply destroy ourselves. If we impose sanctions on Russia within the oil and gasoline area, we are going to destroy ourselves. It’s like capturing your self within the foot earlier than dashing right into a combat.” That is how sure rational folks within the West see it at the moment.”
With the doomsday predictions of Russian navy failure in Ukraine coming unstuck and the blowback from Russia sanctions starting to chunk, Europeans are caught in a bind. They are going to be resentful as time passes.
MK Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat. He was India’s ambassador to Uzbekistan and Turkey. The views are private.
