The {photograph}, exhibiting a person in fight fatigues posing on a river ferry alongside Russian navy gear, was posted on Russian social media on October 10. Three days later, a video that appeared on the identical account appeared to indicate the identical ferry and gear.
“And we’re transferring,” the person, recognized as Makar Teplinskiy, from the jap Ukrainian area of Luhansk, says within the video. Later, off-screen, a voice could be heard asking, “Who’re you exhibiting that to?”
The ferry seems to be a part of an ongoing Russian pullback of troopers and gear from the suitable financial institution of the Dnieper River, within the southern Kherson area, the place Ukrainian forces have been making gradual advances. The video was recognized and pinpointed by RFE/RL utilizing geolocation, satellite tv for pc imagery, and surrounding landmarks.
The findings, by RFE/RL’s Russian Service and Schemes, the investigative unit of RFE/RL’s Ukrainian Service, spotlight the mounting stress on Russian forces, who’ve been pummeled by Ukrainian troops pushing southward. Consultants say the advances are more likely to lead as much as an effort to take again town of Kherson itself — the one regional capital to fall to Russian forces since Moscow launched a large-scale invasion on February 24.
If town is recaptured, will probably be a serious tactical victory for Ukraine — and a humiliation for Russian commanders and President Vladimir Putin.
Underneath Strain
For weeks, stretching again so far as August, Ukraine had used precision weaponry supplied by the US and different Western nations to focus on Russian provide traces and command posts in Kherson.
These targets included many Dnieper River bridge crossings, together with the Antonivskiy Bridge, a serious crossing that connects town of Kherson with the other financial institution. Russian forces have constructed a ferry crossing instantly adjoining to the broken bridge, and there are at the least two different ferry crossings utilized by civilians near the Antonivskiy Bridge, in addition to others utilized by the Russian navy close by.
Extra just lately, the Ukrainian artillery and missile barrage has morphed right into a floor offensive, documented by navy observers and navy bloggers — Russian and Ukrainian — pushing south alongside the west financial institution of the Dnieper and forcing Russian troops to withdraw south and east, throughout the river.
The Kherson effort dovetails with an earlier, seemingly related offensive a whole bunch of kilometers to the northeast, the place Ukraine shocked Russian forces, recapturing dozens of cities within the Kharkiv area and an essential rail hub within the Donetsk area, Lyman.
The offensive within the east has slowed extra just lately, although it is unclear if it is on account of Ukrainian forces’ regrouping and resupplying, or stiffer Russian resistance, and even Ukrainian forces shifting focus again to Kherson.
In current days, amid the Ukrainian advances, there have been mounting indicators from Russian officers and their native proxies that Russian forces have been underneath stress, and commanders might be contemplating pulling again solely from the west financial institution of the Dnieper.
In an uncommon interview broadcast on October 18, the newly appointed general commander for Russian forces, Basic Sergei Surovikin, mentioned that the scenario within the Kherson area was “very tough” and that Russian navy might need to make “essentially the most tough selections” in Kherson.
It wasn’t clear what Surovikin meant, although some observers speculated it signaled a potential large-scale withdrawal of Russian forces from the west financial institution of the Dnieper.
As of late on October 19, Ukrainian ahead positions have been believed to be lower than 40 kilometers from the village of Kozatske and the city of Nova Kakhovka, on reverse sides of the river.
That very same day, residents of Kherson metropolis acquired textual content messages urging them to urgently depart, citing potential assaults by the Ukrainian Army. Locals additionally reported leaflets studying, “Save your loved ones; transfer to the left financial institution” being distributed.
“The battle for Kherson will start within the very close to future,” Kirill Stremousov, the deputy head for the Russian-imposed administration for Kherson, mentioned in a video. “Town of Kherson is popping right into a fortress,” he mentioned.
One other official, Vladimir Saldo, introduced restrictions on civilian journey within the area, and mentioned public-sector employees like docs and academics can be transferring to the river’s left financial institution. He mentioned between 50,000-60,000 individuals can be moved, and a few can be despatched to Russia itself.
“I feel they’re making ready the viewers that they may lose the battle for the Kherson area,” Yuriy Sobolevskiy, a Ukrainian official who’s the primary deputy head of the Kherson Regional Council, instructed Present Time. “That’s, they’re making ready their inhabitants for experiences of defeat,” he mentioned, referring to Russian proxy authorities within the area.
Geolocating Ferries
Ukraine’s focusing on of the Dnieper River crossings has compelled the Russian navy to rely closely on non permanent pontoon bridges, and even makeshift ferries assembled from components of pontoon bridges.
The {photograph} and video recognized by RFE/RL have been posted by Teplinskiy to the Russian social media web site VK.
Archived social-media accounts present that Teplinskiy, in addition to his father, had served since 2015 in navy models underneath the authority of the Russian-organized administration that controls the Luhansk area, which calls itself the Luhansk Individuals’s Republic. Moscow-backed models from Luhansk and neighboring Donetsk have fought alongside common Russian troops in these two areas, identified collectively because the Donbas, and in Kherson.
RFE/RL geolocated the ferry crossing proven in Tepinskiy’s video to the suitable financial institution of the Dnieper, close to Kozatske. The ferry is heading to the mouth of the canal that connects the village with Nova Kakhovka, positioned on the left financial institution.
A collection of satellite tv for pc pictures obtained by RFE/RL from the non-public firm Planet Labs within the first week of October confirmed a number of ferry crossings at this location. The final time a ferry loaded with navy gear on the way in which from Nova Kakhovka to Kozatske was captured by satellite tv for pc imagery was on October 4.
On October 5, it will have been scheduled to return to Nova Kakhovka with a full load. On October 8 and 12, satellite tv for pc pictures additionally present the motion of empty ferries towards the suitable financial institution. Considered one of these crossings was in all chance the one filmed by Teplinskiy and posted to his account on October 13.
One other video posted by Teplinskiy on October 13 contains metadata pointing to a home the place he was staying in Nova Kakhovka, and a video of an obvious birthday with different navy males, taken at roughly the identical time.
Teplinskiy didn’t reply to messages from RFE/RL in search of remark.
