Fatih Yurtsever*
With the invasion of Ukraine that started on Feb. 24, 2022, the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet blockaded the port of Odessa, Ukraine’s gateway to the world. It occupied Snake Island off Odessa at the start of the battle. The Ukrainian Navy mined the entry routes to the port of Odessa to stop a doable operation by Russian amphibious forces. Industrial maritime visitors to the port of Odessa got here to a halt, and Ukrainian grain was caught in silos. Russia’s suspension of grain and fertilizer exports attributable to sanctions and 25 million tons of grain being stranded in silos within the port of Odessa brought on the worldwide meals disaster to accentuate.
Whereas Russian warships continued to conduct a profitable blockade of Odessa, the sinking of the Moskva, the flagship of the fleet, with two Neptune-guided missiles fired from the Ukrainian coast shocked the Russian Navy. As Denmark and the US provided Ukraine with Harpoon-guided missiles that may very well be fired from the shoreline, the Russian Black Sea Fleet started to deploy its warships outdoors the port of Odessa to guard them from the guided missiles and keep away from the lack of a second warship, which may result in an excellent humiliation for Russia.
Because the Russian Air Drive was unable to realize regional air superiority within the west of the Crimean Peninsula, the Ukrainian military used Turkish Bayraktar TB -2 UAVs to neutralize Russian air protection models stationed on Snake Island and Russian patrol ships moored close to the island. Discovering it troublesome to carry Snake Island militarily and struggling too many losses, Russia determined to go away the island. The truth that the Russian Black Sea Fleet needed to station its ships removed from the port of Odessa for defense, withdrew from Snake Island and was unable to guard its patrol ships towards the TB-2 UAVs because of the lack of regional air superiority reveals the army failure of the Russian Navy.
Nevertheless, regardless of that failure, an settlement drafted on the initiative of UN Secretary-Common Antonio Guterres in keeping with Russia’s calls for and offering for the institution of a grain hall within the Black Sea for the transport of Ukrainian and Russian grain to world markets was signed Friday by Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN. Underneath this settlement the sanctions imposed on Russia that impede the export of grain and fertilizers can be eased. Due to this settlement, Russia will achieve necessary political and financial benefits. So how did Russia come to signal an settlement through which it advantages politically though it has not been profitable within the space of maritime operations?
To resolve the world meals disaster, which has been exacerbated by the battle between Russia and Ukraine, the UN secretary-general held bilateral conferences with each Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin in April. It is because to be able to alleviate the results of the meals disaster, Russia and Ukraine’s grain should be introduced again to world markets collectively. Ukraine was initially not enthusiastic concerning the thought of creating a meals hall, which was additionally put ahead by Turkey. Ukraine needed safety ensures that Russia wouldn’t launch an amphibious operation within the port of Odessa if it cleared the mines from the Odessa coast. Whereas Russia initially shunned giving such a assure, Russia’s failure within the blockade made a compromise a extra worthwhile choice for Russia. Russia tacitly gave the safety assure demanded by Ukraine by withdrawing its forces from Snake Island, which may very well be used as an auxiliary base in a doable amphibious operation. Though Russia offered this withdrawal as an indication of goodwill, it was militarily obliged to take action. Russia politically hid its army failure by withdrawing its troops from Snake Island on the diplomatically opportune time.
Russia’s withdrawal of its army forces from Snake Island accelerated the diplomatic initiative, additionally involving the UN and Turkey, for the institution of a grain hall within the Black Sea. The UN, Turkey, Russia and Ukraine have totally different motivations and priorities for the creation of the grain hall. The UN needs to mitigate the results of the meals disaster by discovering an answer that results in Russian and Ukrainian grain being exported to world markets, and it needs to restore its picture, which has been tarnished by its ineffective stance within the Ukraine-Russia battle. Odessa is Ukraine’s gateway to the world. Earlier than the battle, about 80 p.c of exports handed via the port of Odessa. Ukraine plans to each make sure the safety of Odessa and reopen the port of Odessa to the world through the grain hall.
By its diplomatic efforts, the federal government of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan goals to purchase Russian and Ukrainian grain extra cheaply and to achieve worldwide status by assuming the function of the main nation and chief in fixing the worldwide meals disaster and turning this into home votes earlier than the elections subsequent yr. With Russia’s plan to take Odessa militarily shelved, its first precedence is to market its personal grain and fertilizer to the world from its personal ports, easing sanctions imposed on the nation by making concessions on financial institution funds, insurance coverage and transportation. The sale of Ukrainian grain from the port of Odessa and the institution of a grain hall gained’t hurt Russia’s pursuits at this stage. For Putin, facilitating Ukrainian grain exports is a profitable choice in return for the lifting of restrictions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports. For the EU, the transport of Russian and Ukrainian grain to African international locations is an initiative that may be supported as it is going to forestall doable inside unrest in these international locations and migratory actions in direction of the EU.
Consequently Russia turned its army failure into political achieve with political assist from the Erdoğan authorities by backing the UN’s diplomatic try and resolve the world meals disaster after the lack of Moscow’s flagship and the withdrawal from Snake Island.
* Fatih Yurtsever is a former naval officer within the Turkish Armed Forces. He’s utilizing a pseudonym out of safety considerations.
