One 12 months after the U.S. army withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Biden administration faces a fancy counterterrorism problem. The profitable U.S. strike in July 2022 that killed Al Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul was a blow to Al Qaeda. However with the Taliban’s persevering with shut relationship with Al Qaeda and the deterioration of Afghanistan right into a terrorist sanctuary, america must rethink its counterterrorism technique.
Afghanistan is the one nation on this planet right this moment with an in depth, working relationship with Al Qaeda. In keeping with one current United Nations Safety Council evaluation, Al Qaeda’s management “performs an advisory function with the Taliban, and the teams stay shut.” As well as, the placement the place Zawahiri was killed—a secure home apparently owned by an aide to Sirajuddin Haqqani, the Taliban’s appearing minister of inside—highlights the intimacy between the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda doesn’t but have the power to plan and execute terrorist assaults within the U.S. homeland, in line with the U.S. Protection Intelligence Company. However there are a number of regarding developments that ought to alarm U.S. and different Western officers.
First, core Al Qaeda and its native affiliate, Al Qaeda within the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), stay lively in Afghanistan. AQIS has as many as 400 fighters, together with a presence in southern and jap Afghanistan. Following the U.S. strike in opposition to Zawahiri, Taliban leaders—who have been livid at america for the assault—could permit Al Qaeda extra room to maneuver. Even earlier than the assault, U.S. Central Command assessed that the Taliban would seemingly loosen its restrictions on Al Qaeda and permit the group larger freedom of motion and the power to coach, journey, and rebuild its exterior operations functionality.
Second, Afghanistan is house to quite a few different terrorist teams, such because the Islamic State-Khorasan Province (ISIS-Ok). A U.S. Division of Protection report concluded that “ISIS-Ok remained the highest terrorist risk in Afghanistan with roughly 2,000 members working within the nation.” The group is led by Sanaullah Ghafari (alias Shahab al-Muhajir) and has performed a whole bunch of assaults in Afghanistan for the reason that departure of U.S. from Afghanistan. The aim of ISIS-Ok leaders stays to make use of Afghanistan as a base for increasing its footprint within the area and making a broader, pan-Islamic caliphate.
There are additionally quite a few different teams—together with terrorist teams—in Afghanistan, such because the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Jamaat Ansarullah. The TTP, which is led by Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, has between 3,000 and 4,000 fighters in Afghanistan, making it one of many largest terrorist teams in Afghanistan. There are additionally over a dozen anti-Taliban teams all through the nation.
Third, the Taliban is unable to ship primary items and companies in Afghanistan, a big fear since failed states are sometimes a essential, although not a ample, situation for terrorism. Afghanistan’s economic system is in shambles, due to Taliban incompetence and persevering with worldwide financial sanctions. The nation’s gross home product is projected to decline by 34 % by the top of 2022, in comparison with 2020, the final full 12 months of the Ashraf Ghani authorities. The humanitarian state of affairs can be dire, with roughly 24.4 million individuals, or 59 % of the inhabitants, in determined want of humanitarian help.
In sum, the terrorism panorama in Afghanistan is alarming due to the Taliban’s shut relationship with Al Qaeda, the proliferation of terrorist and different non-state teams, and the collapse of governance in Afghanistan. On this atmosphere, america has left itself with few choices.
In distinction to just about each different U.S. counterterrorism marketing campaign since 9/11, america has no associate power on the bottom in Afghanistan. The US labored with the Counter Terrorism Service and different Iraqi forces in Iraq; native militias in Libya; the Somali authorities, African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) forces, and clans in Somalia; and the Syrian Democratic Forces in Syria. In Afghanistan right this moment, nonetheless, the Taliban is a U.S. enemy, not an ally.
The US additionally has few intelligence capabilities in Afghanistan. The US shut down its embassy and CIA station when it withdrew army forces in August 2021. U.S. army intelligence organizations—such because the Protection Intelligence Company and Nationwide Safety Company—additionally withdrew most of their intelligence assortment capabilities. Because the head of U.S. Central Command acknowledged a number of months in the past, “we’re most likely at about 1 or 2 % of the capabilities we as soon as needed to look into Afghanistan,” making it “very laborious” to know what is occurring there.
Lastly, america has no army bases within the area to fly plane for intelligence assortment or strike missions. The US withdrew from all bases in Afghanistan, similar to Bagram Air Base and Kandahar Worldwide Airport, and doesn’t have bases in Central Asia or South Asia. As an alternative, america has been pressured to make the most of areas similar to Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is roughly 2,500 miles from Kabul.
The shortage of associate forces, scant intelligence, and no close by bases go away america severely hamstrung in conducting counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan. Consequently, america ought to develop a extra sturdy counterterrorism marketing campaign that has at the very least two main parts.
The primary is to work with native forces inside and out of doors Afghanistan to rebuild the U.S.’s intelligence structure in opposition to terrorist teams. The U.S. army and CIA have a lengthy historical past of working with native Afghan forces—together with Hazara, Tajik, Uzbek, and a few Pashtun militias—to gather intelligence and conduct counterterrorism operations. Some U.S. actions have been orchestrated as covert motion applications beneath Title 50 of U.S. Code, which permits america to conduct political, financial, and army actions overseas that aren’t acknowledged publicly.
The principle aim shouldn’t be to overthrow the Taliban, however to gather intelligence on terrorist networks working in Afghanistan. These U.S. companions—which might vary from supporters of the Nationwide Resistance Entrance to the Afghanistan Freedom Entrance—can present worthwhile info on terrorist leaders, coaching camps, and different actions, which america ought to complement with intelligence collected from different sources. As well as, there’s deep opposition to the Taliban amongst some Pashtun tribes and subtribes, similar to Barakzais and Popalzais, that U.S. intelligence and army items might leverage.
The second element must be to barter basing entry within the area, particularly for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities. The US ought to jumpstart negotiations with nations within the area—similar to Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and probably even India—to deal with manned and unmanned plane to conduct intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance over Afghan territory.
The Biden administration has began these discussions, however they are going to be troublesome. Permitting the U.S. army or intelligence neighborhood to fly strike plane may very well be too politically dangerous for a lot of of those governments. As well as, Russia has already voiced robust opposition to U.S. bases in Central Asia. However surveillance plane may very well be extra politically acceptable for some nations.
A failure to enhance the U.S.’s counterterrorism capabilities and posture—notably by establishing relations with native companions in Afghanistan and negotiating further bases—will put america and its companions at rising danger of a terrorist assault. U.S. intelligence businesses now assess that Al Qaeda and ISIS-Ok might develop exterior operations capabilities later in 2022 or 2023. This actuality makes it vital for america to maneuver expeditiously—earlier than the following assault.
Seth G. Jones is senior vice chairman, Harold Brown Chair, and director of the Worldwide Safety Program on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research (CSIS). He was a plans officer and adviser to the commanding normal, U.S. Particular Operations Forces, in Afghanistan, in addition to the creator of Within the Graveyard of Empires: America’s Warfare in Afghanistan (W.W. Norton).
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