a Digest of Russian Propaganda of July 4

The Centre for Strategic Communication and Info Safety has collected the principle fakes and narratives of the Russian propaganda of July 4.

1. “The second-best military of the world” superior by 117 km in 131 days
2. What concerning the encirclement?
3. Awaiting the zero-turnout “referendum”
4. Russian Minister of Defence put in his place

The second-best military of the world” superior by 117 km in 131 days

Russian Defence Minister Shoigu introduced the entire “liberation of the Luhansk Individuals’s Republic” at a gathering with Putin. The latter thanked for the “victory,” awarded two commanders of occupier troops with the Hero of Russia title, and ordered the models of the “Centre” group who participated in hostilities in that space to get some relaxation. 

“Different army models, together with the ‘East’ and ‘West’ teams, should full their duties as deliberate,” mentioned Putin. All this occurred on July 4. “The particular operation for the liberation of the Donbas,” as you might be effectively conscious, began on February 24.

IN REALITY, the space between Luhansk and Lysychansk is sort of 117 kilometres. It takes an hour and 56 minutes to drive between the 2. It took the Russian military 131 days to cowl this distance. The one kind of formalized army “victory” (after all, short-term) within the warfare with Ukraine value Putin greater than 36,200 troopers, 1,589 tanks, 3,754 armoured preventing autos, 804 models of artillery methods, 246 anti-aircraft weapons, 105 air defence methods, 217 plane, 187 helicopters and another “trinkets,” just like the Moskva warship.

That’s all you want to know concerning the “invincible and legendary second-best military of the world” in Ukraine. Every part else is propaganda, like “we’re saving the civilians of Luhansk oblast,” or fakes, just like the “Azot plant in Sievierodonetsk rigged with explosives by Nazis.”

It’s going to perpetually be recorded within the historical past of this warfare that “reaching the executive borders of the LPR,” which had been 117 kilometres away from Luhansk, took the Russian military 131 days. And that’s it. 

What concerning the encirclement?

Again in Could, Russian army consultants began to hype up the inevitable encirclement between Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk. They wrote that “based on numerous information, 9 to 11 thousand Ukrainian servicemen from numerous models are literally besieged in Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk.”

In addition they pretend-analysed Ukrainian social media and concluded that the Ukrainian management do not need a single opinion regarding its troops, who might find yourself in encirclement. Finally, Moscow went as far as to say that the choice to withdraw combat-ready models and officers was “a compromise between President Zelenskyy and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Valerii Zaluzhnyi.”

The western “icing” on the propaganda cake was the concept that the Sievierodonetsk encirclement allegedly makes Europe much less decisive.

IN REALITY, there was no encirclement. For starters, no Russian media printed any footage of captive Ukrainian troopers. Not even staged photos.

The Ukrainian defence forces moved in an organized method to beforehand established positions: Siversk, Soledar, Bakhmut. From a army standpoint, it made no extra sense to maintain holding Lysychansk. And even much less sense to carry on to Sievierodonetsk. Town is barely there. It suffered the identical destiny because the beforehand “liberated” Mariupol.

Right here’s what now we have acquired:

The occupiers’ forces are restricted in actions and have suffered main losses; 

A lot-needed time has been gained for additional provide of Western weapons and bettering the second line of defence; 

Groundwork has been laid for advancing on different areas of the entrance; 

The Ukrainian army and political command didn’t comply with the Stalinist precept of “not a single step again”;

Kyiv follows quite simple logic: when there’s a military, territory will probably be recovered. With out a military, there will probably be no method to get well any territories.

Russian propagandists and so-called army consultants ought to in all probability be blocked themselves. When it comes to data. 

Awaiting the zero-turnout “referendum”

The chief of the so-called “LPR” Pasichnyk has already claimed that “skilled, certified individuals will probably be appointed to management positions in Lysychansk; it’s doable that they are going to be representatives of the previous administration.”  

Evidently the faux republic will quickly begin speaking a couple of future referendum about becoming a member of one thing — who is aware of what, at this level, for the reason that Kremlin has not selected its technique, both. If Shoigu’s military continues its superb march of 117 km in 131 days, it’s unclear the place it will all lead. In Kherson, they already introduced a “referendum” on September 11. Nicely, we’ll see. “South Ossetia,” which has been “unbiased” since 2008, can share some expertise right here.

IN REALITY, the occupiers are going through one other main downside on the “liberated” territories — “legitimizing” the “referendum itch” of the native collaborators.

The motivation of the latter is clear: to formalize at the least some form of standing with a referendum to “make it official.” And later, they may give up the made-up positions and get misplaced within the limitless house of Russian forms.  One instance is Trapeznykov, one of many former “DPR” leaders, who’s now governing the Russian Kalmykia.

There are, after all, different examples, method much less profitable. However the present Luhansk wannabes consider it’s their fortunate day.

However what ought to Putin do? In fact, Putin can hardly be known as a strategic thinker, however how about at the least a tactical process — discovering individuals who would present as much as the “referendum”? Unusually, as of 2017, there have been 100,000 residents in Lysychansk, based on Surkov’s calculations, “ready to be liberated from Kyiv Nazis.” And now, when the time has come, they’re simply 10,000 max. One way or the other, 9 out of ten Lysychansk residents didn’t look ahead to the “liberators.”

In fact, they’ll write no matter numbers of supporters they like. However how will they give you the 100,000 residents of Lysychansk, the identical quantity for Sievierodonetsk, nearly 57,000 individuals from Rubizhne and different, smaller cities and cities of the “liberated” Luhansk oblast?

First, that is some robust logistics.

Second, if Moscow decides to make use of its favorite electoral trick within the type of digital vote, world hackers may have their work reduce out for them.

And there’s a third method, a “parliamentary” vote, however contemplating numerous risks that repeatedly befall newly discovered “elected officers,” there isn’t a assure right here.

In fact, Moscow will give you one thing. Putin has in all probability come to phrases with the truth that no person will acknowledge this (apart from possibly Syria). Though he stubbornly believes that he’ll deal with all of it with the West later.

Russian Minister of Defence put in his place

Let’s wrap up with the assembly of Putin and Shoigu, the place the latter reported to the previous that “LPR is ours.” Curiously, the printed footage reveals that the dictator tells his defence minister that he has already acquired experiences from two commanders of the “Ukrainian vectors” Lapin and Surovikin.

IN REALITY, this manner, Putin clearly confirmed Shoigu his place within the new hierarchy. Earlier than listening to his chief army commander, Putin first listened to direct experiences from his subordinates.

What was it: a protocol faux-pas, or an understated present of mistrust?

What’s attention-grabbing, Putin’s spokesman Peskov mentioned just some days in the past that the Kremlin maintains all anti-COVID measures.

These measures may be present in element within the examine “Kremlin Quarantine throughout the Battle. How Vladimir Putin’s Well being Is Guarded in Russia.” It was launched by the BBC. For example, the “Rossiya” summer time squadron, whose crews fly with Putin, spent 125 million roubles on COVID assessments. Beginning in June 2021, pilots and flight attendants have needed to take as much as two thousand PCR assessments and as much as 600 antibody assessments each month. As well as, about 50 blood assessments for biomarkers, and about 100–200 stool assessments to determine the coronavirus.

94-year-old veteran Akhat Yulashev from Kazan was saved in quarantine for 2 weeks earlier than being allowed to shake Putin’s hand at the newest parade on Could 9. This was the case for everybody sitting subsequent to Putin. This reveals that the Kremlin chief is maniacally obsessed along with his well being. 

Contemplating the final assembly between Putin and Shoigu, this turns into attention-grabbing as a result of on June 26, the latter allegedly inspected the command posts of the Russian army in Ukraine.

Solely every week handed since then and earlier than the assembly. So, both the quarantine earlier than assembly Putin has turn out to be shorter, or Shoigu didn’t examine the posts on June 26, or it was not Shoigu who did it, or his assembly with Putin was fully staged.

In any case, the Russian minister of defence, who fortunately reported concerning the “liberation of the LPR,” was put in his place. It now not issues if it was executed by Putin or the Russian tv. And that’s all you want to learn about July 4, the 131st day of Russia’s warfare in Ukraine and the “liberation of the LPR.”

Centre for Strategic Communication and Info Safety