Ukrainian forces have up to now been capable of stave off Russia’s preliminary push, sustaining management of Kyiv and different main cities. However they continue to be massively outgunned and outmanned. And Russia is now bringing in heavier, extra harmful weaponry and more and more putting civilian infrastructure, after an preliminary deal with army targets, the officers mentioned.
However Western officers now count on that Russia will ramp up heavy weapons bombardment of Ukraine’s cities and doubtlessly march in “tens of 1000’s” of troops, one US official mentioned. Ultimately, officers warning, Ukraine’s army will possible run in need of provides wanted to maintain up the combat.
The US has delivered a whole bunch of Stinger missiles to Ukraine over the previous few days, together with greater than 200 on Monday, in accordance with a US official and a congressional supply briefed on the matter. However the US and NATO have made it clear they won’t commit troops to defending Ukraine.
‘Merciless army math’
Ukraine’s will to combat “is extending this,” mentioned the senior Western intelligence official. “However the merciless army math of it will ultimately come to bear, absent some intervention, absent some elementary change within the dynamic.”
For Ukraine, whose army forces and civilian inhabitants have proven no indicators of capitulating, the warfare seems poised to grow to be a grim wrestle for survival over a protracted, unsure future.
The numbers are already bleak: Russia has misplaced roughly 3% to five% of its tanks, plane, artillery and different army belongings inside Ukraine — in contrast with Ukrainian losses of roughly 10% of its capabilities, in accordance with two US officers acquainted with the newest intelligence.
Moscow has leaned closely on its extra trendy precision cruise missiles, in accordance with a supply acquainted with the intelligence, closely degrading Ukraine’s army infrastructure. In the meantime, Ukraine has continued to burn by means of its provide of shoulder-fired Javelin missiles.
Western safety help has flowed throughout the border into Ukraine in current days, protection and intelligence officers say, though they’ve declined to supply particulars on how a lot, exactly what variety or how it’s attending to the embattled Ukrainian forces.
Public statements from Ukrainian officers counsel it is not sufficient.
Ukrainian International Minister Dmytro Kuleba informed Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a name Wednesday that Ukraine wants extra deliveries of weapons “now,” Kuleba tweeted.
“They want bullets. They want bandages. They’ll want gas. They’ll want ammunition, along with the humanitarian help to assist with medical help, sustaining hospitals, each for fight wounded and for civilians which might be being damage,” the senior intelligence official mentioned of Ukrainian provides.
“And they are going to want lots once more in ammunition and the weapons resupply, as a result of the Russian pressure is each numerically and qualitatively superior,” this individual mentioned.
Fears of civilian casualties
Along with grinding down Ukraine’s army, US and different Western officers worry Russia’s siege ways will trigger heavy civilian casualties as Moscow goals to in the end take Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv.
Whereas the primary few nights of Russia’s marketing campaign had been aimed toward army websites, over the past three there have been missile, artillery and rocket assaults towards many civilian areas, the place there could also be administrative buildings however no safety installations.
CNN has been capable of affirm assaults in Irpin, close to Kyiv, in addition to Mariupol, Borodjanka, Kharkiv and Kherson.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield accused Russia of bringing weapons banned underneath the Geneva Conventions into Ukraine on Wednesday.
“We’ve seen movies of Russian forces shifting exceptionally deadly weaponry into Ukraine, which has no place on the battlefield. That features cluster munitions and vacuum bombs — that are banned underneath the Geneva Conference,” she mentioned.
A senior protection official mentioned Tuesday that the US couldn’t show that cluster munitions or vacuum bombs had been utilized by the Russian army.
“We’re prone to see an growth of what we have seen within the final 48 hours, which is already an ideal diploma of civilian infrastructure harm — whether or not intentional or unintentional,” mentioned the senior intelligence official. “The violence degree will go up. The numbers of refugees will go up. The numbers of civilian casualties and civilian useless will go up.”
Russians turning to heavier forces
To make sure, the Russian army’s offensive has confronted quite a few issues — a few of its personal making, officers say.
A 40-mile-long convoy of tanks, armored automobiles and towed artillery positioned north of Kyiv is “stalled,” the senior protection official mentioned Wednesday.
The official mentioned the US assesses there are a number of elements that seem to have slowed Russia’s transfer on Kyiv, together with gas and meals issues, an efficient, “stiff resistance” from Ukrainians and potential morale issues inside Russia’s ranks.
However the official cautioned that the Russians would study from their errors and adapt.
The Western intelligence official mentioned {that a} week into the warfare, the Russian army seems to have realized its preliminary method to Ukraine was problematic, which relied on using lighter items that had been extra cell however much less capable of help themselves.
“I feel a part of what you are seeing is them now catching up, seeing now it is time to introduce heavier troops,” the official mentioned. “I feel the priority now we have is that they appear to be now bringing in heavier forces, with extra armor, extra long-range artillery, heavier weapons, that aren’t simply extra harmful of their nature however, frankly, are additionally much less exact.”
Social media posts and open-source intelligence, in addition to movies and different data launched by Ukraine, have advised that many Russian troops had been unprepared for and even uninformed of the true nature of the mission they had been being despatched to perform. Primarily based on that open-source reporting, Western officers consider that troop morale, no less than amongst some floor items, could be very low, officers informed CNN.
That would additionally gradual Russian progress, officers mentioned. Maybe equally important are Ukrainian efforts to publicize Russian casualties and permit captured Russian troopers to name their family members at dwelling — efforts that might inform the Russian inhabitants of the warfare being waged of their identify overseas.
“They [Russia] have to stop data of Russian fight losses in their very own home viewers in a means they’ve in each different battle that they’d not supposedly participated in,” the Western intelligence official mentioned. “They usually’ll go to nice lengths domestically to stop that phrase from getting out.”
Estimates of Russian casualties differ; Ukraine on Wednesday mentioned 6,000 Russians have been killed or wounded, whereas US sources acquainted with the intelligence say the evaluation is nearer to 2,000 or 3,000.
CNN’s Natasha Bertrand, Kylie Atwood and Zachary Cohen contributed to this report.
