The primary high-level talks between Turkey and Syria in over a decade held in Moscow final week replicate the frequent pursuits of the 2 nations in limiting the autonomy of Syrian Kurds, specialists say.
Turkish International Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu mentioned extra talks are deliberate for later this month.
Analysts talking to VOA imagine that if the method strikes ahead, an Erdogan-Assad assembly is likely to be within the works. However they warning Syrian chief Bashar al-Assad is likely to be unwilling at hand Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan a political present earlier than the elections in Turkey, presumably in Might.
Turkish Protection Minister Hulusi Akar and intelligence chief Hakan Fidan met their Syrian counterparts final Wednesday in Moscow. They have been joined by Russian Protection Minister Sergei Shoigu and mentioned the “Syrian disaster, the refugee drawback and joint efforts towards all terror teams on Syrian soil,” in keeping with an announcement by the Turkish Ministry of Protection.
Turkey supported the armed rebels that sought to topple Assad in Syria in the course of the civil conflict that started in 2011, locking the 2 nations in bitter animosity for years.
The primary contact between Turkey and Syria for the reason that starting of the civil conflict discreetly began between their intelligence companies a while in the past. Latest talks between the protection ministers underscored Ankara’s effort to have interaction in dialogue with Damascus, representing a significant international coverage reversal.
Frequent pursuits
Final week’s assembly follows Turkey’s risk to launch one other army offensive towards the Individuals’s Safety Units (YPG) in northern Syria, an motion opposed by Russia, the USA and Iran.
The YPG types the spine of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the U.S. ally within the combat towards Islamic State. Turkey sees the YPG because the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Staff’ Social gathering (PKK), which is taken into account a terrorist group by Turkey, the U.S. and the EU.
Chatting with journalists earlier than the talks in Moscow, Akar mentioned Ankara had been involved with Moscow about utilizing Syrian airspace for a attainable army operation.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford instructed VOA that Ankara and Damascus share an curiosity in limiting the autonomy of the Syrian Kurds in northern Syria, and the talks replicate frequent safety considerations with respect to the YPG.
“I don’t low cost a coordinated Syrian-Turkish effort towards the YPG, notably in Tel Rifaat or Manbij,” Ford mentioned. “Extra possible, Ankara hopes Moscow and Damascus can persuade the YPG to stop these locales with out preventing and permit restoration of full Syrian management backed by Russian forces.”
Ford is at the moment a fellow at Yale College and on the Center East Institute, based mostly in Washington.
He added that regardless of having troublesome relations, the Assad regime and the YPG generally cooperate as a result of Assad finds their presence within the northeast “sometimes helpful.”
Alan Makovsky, a senior fellow for nationwide safety and worldwide coverage on the Middle for American Progress, agrees that Turkey’s effort for dialogue with the Syrian authorities is partly dictated by its YPG concern. He mentioned Erdogan desires to search out frequent floor with Assad to take away the YPG from the border space and repress any Kurdish bid for autonomy.
Election considerations amid refugee drawback
Specialists talking to VOA imagine that the upcoming Turkish elections characterize one other important issue at play.
Turkey hosts greater than 4 million Syrian refugees. The federal government says it is engaged on a plan to ship 1 million Syrians again to their nation on a voluntary foundation. The refugee problem has just lately been a delicate one in Turkey’s home politics with elections a couple of months away.
Pointing to the Turkish public’s robust sentiment relating to the refugee problem, Makovsky instructed VOA that Erdogan hopes he can persuade voters that dialogue with Assad will result in the return of most Syrian refugees.
Cavusoglu hinted at extra talks later this month, presumably on the international minister degree, with Damascus.
“Russia has come ahead with a date, however we’re not accessible on these days. So, we’re engaged on another proposals,” he instructed journalists on Tuesday.
Cavusoglu didn’t fully rule out the potential for a gathering between the 2 presidents earlier than the Turkish elections however mentioned the choice can be as much as Erdogan, including that presidential degree talks might be thought-about after the international ministers meet.
Reuters reported final month that Syria opposed the thought of a leaders’ summit with Turkey, saying Damascus believed such a gathering might enhance Erdogan forward of the elections.
Some analysts mentioned there needs to be some political progress earlier than the 2 leaders can meet.
“I might anticipate an Erdogan-Assad assembly provided that Erdogan wanted a dramatic step to handle the refugee problem, or if Assad was able to make a significant concession, reminiscent of guaranteeing security for returning refugees. Assad is unlikely at hand Erdogan any political present,” Ford mentioned.
Turkey’s reconciliation effort with Syria continues to dominate the headlines within the Turkish press and public dialogue. Specialists say latest polls point out there’s a robust want amongst Turkish residents for a dramatic shift within the authorities’s Syria coverage.
Makovsky mentioned latest diplomatic momentum and political logic counsel an Assad-Erdogan settlement by spring. He pointed to a latest survey by Turkish polling firm Metropoll that highlighted the home political dynamics in Turkey.
“Turks favor speaking to Assad by 59-29 [percent], in keeping with the survey. Erdogan might derive some political profit from a mere photo-op. However Assad in all probability has no real interest in serving to Erdogan’s reelection bid. Turkey’s opposition get together, CHP, has referred to as for dialogue with Assad and noninterference in Syria since 2011. Nonetheless, Russia nearly definitely does need Erdogan to be reelected, and it is well-positioned to make Assad agree to satisfy the Turkish president,” he instructed VOA.
US criticism and Russia
A spokesperson from the U.S. State Division mentioned in a assertion despatched to VOA’s Turkish Service final week that the U.S. doesn’t help nations “upgrading their relations to rehabilitate the brutal dictator Bashar al-Assad” and urged the nations to “fastidiously think about the atrocities inflicted by the Assad regime on the Syrian individuals” during the last decade.
Analysts talking to VOA say Washington doesn’t wish to see the Assad authorities in Syria being legitimized and emboldened, as a result of it will be a diplomatic and geopolitical success for Russia, from Washington’s perspective.
Additionally they imagine the U.S. doesn’t need an settlement between Damascus and Ankara that may allow both the Turkish army or Syrian authorities forces to “weaken or distract the YPG” from its focus towards Islamic State.
Some argue that Russia is likely to be keen to offer the inexperienced mild to a army operation by Turkey in return for dialogue with the Assad authorities. Makovsky challenges that view, saying Russian opposition to a different army motion by Turkey seems fairly agency.
He mentioned Ankara’s request to buy F-16 army fighter jets from Washington might be a consider coming months, noting that international arms gross sales are topic to U.S. congressional approval.
Cavusoglu mentioned he’ll meet Secretary of State Antony Blinken later this month in Washington to debate bilateral points, together with Ankara’s F-16 request.
The 2 just lately spoke by cellphone, and in keeping with the readout offered, Blinken expressed concern over the scenario in Syria.
The State Division confirmed the deliberate talks within the assertion despatched to VOA’s Turkish Service however didn’t present further particulars.
This story originated in VOA’s Turkish Service. Dilge Timocin contributed to this report.
