Russian Offensive Marketing campaign Evaluation, August 8

AFGHANISTAN, August 9 –

Layne Philipson, Katherine Lawlor, Karolina Hird, George Barros, Angela Howard, and Frederick W. Kagan

August 8, 7:00 pm ET

Click on right here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is up to date every day alongside the static maps current on this report.

Western and Ukrainian shops circulated a report, seemingly false, of a Russian basic allegedly threatening to destroy Europe’s largest nuclear facility, the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant (NPP), if Russia couldn’t maintain the plant. A number of information shops shared a screenshot from the Russian social networking web site Vkontakte that claimed to quote the Russian head of the Zaporizhia occupation garrison, Main Normal Valery Vasilev, stating that Russia had mined the Zaporizhzhia NPP and that the plant could be “both Russian land or a scorched desert.”[1] The screenshot seemed to be a information report posted in a Vkontakte group run by Russian outlet Lenta Novosti Zaporizhia. The outlet itself claimed that the screenshot was from a faked group and denied writing the report.[2] The Russian Ministry of Protection condemned the report and screenshot as a “faux” and claimed that Vasilev was in Uzbekistan on the time he was presupposed to have made the assertion to forces at Zaporizhzhia.[3] Whatever the origin (or existence) of the unique publish, the reporting is unreliable. It’s oblique and doesn’t declare to quote an official assertion or a press release made on any official Russian information or authorities web site.

This seemingly misreporting distracts from the very actual dangers of Russia’s militarization of the Zaporizhzhia NPP, which can embody mining the plant and virtually definitely consists of the unsafe storage of navy armaments close to nuclear reactors and nuclear waste storage amenities.[4] Bellingcat geolocated a drone video of the Zaporizhia NPP that was shared by Russian opposition outlet The Insider on August 5. The video depicts Russian navy autos transferring in and across the plant, together with navy vehicles and armored autos transferring round and into the constructing containing the primary of the plant’s six nuclear reactors.[5] Russian forces have additionally dug trenches in and across the plant and should have established firing positions.[6] Russian officers declare that Ukraine has repeatedly attacked the plant, whereas Ukrainian officers declare that Russian forces are attacking Ukrainian positions from inside the plant, stopping Ukrainian return fireplace and basically utilizing the plant as a nuclear defend.[7] Russian forces have repeatedly shelled the close by Ukrainian-controlled city of Nikopol, seemingly from positions in or across the NPP, since July.[8]

ISW continues to evaluate that Russian forces are seemingly leveraging the specter of nuclear catastrophe to degrade Western will to offer navy help to a Ukrainian counteroffensive.[9]

Be aware: ISW doesn’t obtain any categorised materials from any supply, makes use of solely publicly accessible info, and attracts extensively on Russian, Ukrainian, and Western reporting and social media in addition to commercially accessible satellite tv for pc imagery and different geospatial information as the idea for these stories. References to all sources used are supplied within the endnotes of every replace.

Key Takeaways

Reporting of a probable falsified Russian assertion distracts from the actual dangers of a Russian-caused nuclear catastrophe at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Energy Plant. Russian forces proceed to conduct assaults from and retailer navy tools close to the plant’s nuclear reactors, more likely to play upon Western fears of a nuclear catastrophe and degrade Western will to offer extra navy help to Ukraine.
Russian forces performed floor assaults northwest of Slovyansk and northeast and southeast of Bakhmut.
Russian forces continued floor assaults northwest and southwest of Donetsk Metropolis.
Russian officers postponed reopening the Antonivskyi Bridge after a Ukrainian strike broken the bridge and close by development tools.
Russian forces are deploying less-professional occupation forces and rising stress on Ukrainian populations in occupied areas.

We don’t report intimately on Russian struggle crimes as a result of these actions are well-covered in Western media and don’t instantly have an effect on the navy operations we’re assessing and forecasting. We are going to proceed to guage and report on the consequences of those prison actions on the Ukrainian navy and inhabitants and particularly on fight in Ukrainian city areas. We totally condemn these Russian violations of the legal guidelines of armed battle, Geneva Conventions, and humanity although we don’t describe them in these stories.

Primary Effort—Jap Ukraine (comprised of 1 subordinate and two supporting efforts);
Subordinate Primary Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian Troops within the Cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv Metropolis
Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis
Mobilization and Power Technology Efforts
Actions in Russian-occupied Areas

Primary Effort—Jap Ukraine

Subordinate Primary Effort—Southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts (Russian goal: Encircle Ukrainian forces in japanese Ukraine and seize the whole lot of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)

Russian forces didn’t conduct any confirmed advances northwest of Izyum on August 8. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces performed an airstrike on Zalyman, roughly 30 km northwest of Izyum, and shelled settlements north of Izyum, together with Husarivka and Asiivka.[10]

Russian forces performed a restricted floor assault northwest of Slovyansk on August 8. The Ukrainian Normal employees reported that Russian forces performed a failed offensive to enhance their positions close to Bohorodychne.[11] Russian forces continued to shell settlements between Izyum and Slovyansk alongside the Kharkiv-Donetsk Oblast border and moreover performed an artillery strike instantly on Slovyansk.[12] Russian journalist and milblogger Evgeniy Poddubniy claimed on August 7 that Ukrainian forces are frequently forming new brigades in Kharkiv Oblast regardless of steady Russian strikes and projected that this drive technology reveals that Ukrainian forces can concurrently conduct advances within the Kherson path and in Kharkiv Oblast.[13]

Russian forces performed floor assaults to the east of Siversk on August 8. The Ukrainian Normal Workers said that Russian forces tried failed offensives within the path of Verkhnokamyanskye (5 km east of Siversk) and 4 different unnamed settlements however retreated with losses.[14] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai additionally reported that Ukrainian forces neutralized Russian reconnaissance teams close to unspecified settlements.[15] Russian forces continued to shell Siversk and close by settlements with tank, tube, and rocket artillery and focused neighboring villages, Hryhorivka and Ivano-Darivka, with airstrikes.[16]

Russian forces continued floor assaults to the east and south of Bakhmut on August 8. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Ukrainian forces defeated Russian reconnaissance teams of unspecified echelons close to Bakhmutske, and Yakovlivka—villages roughly 15 km northeast of Bakhmut—and that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian floor assaults close to Zaitseve and Vershyna—villages roughly 10 km southeast of Bakhmut.[17] Russian forces seemingly search to determine management over Soledar to Bakhmut’s north and Zaitseve to Bakhmut’s south to set circumstances to disrupt Ukrainian management over the T0513 trunk highway that helps Ukrainian frontline positions in northeast Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces continued floor assaults to the northwest and southwest of Donetsk Metropolis on August 8. The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian troops tried to advance towards Avdiivka (5 km north of Donetsk Metropolis) Pisky (5 km northwest of Donetsk Metropolis), and Nevelske (12 km northwest of Donetsk Metropolis).[18] Social media footage posted on August 7 beforehand confirmed Russian forces advancing inside Pisky itself and, taken in tandem with the imprecise language of the Ukrainian Normal Workers report, Russian forces are seemingly specializing in advancing northwest by Pisky from positions within the heart of the settlement.[19] Russian troops moreover performed localized floor assaults southwest of Donetsk Metropolis close to Maryinka and Shevchenko.[20]

Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv Metropolis (Russian goal: Defend floor strains of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum and stop Ukrainian forces from reaching the Russian border)

Russian forces didn’t conduct any confirmed floor assaults northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis and centered on sustaining their present strains on August 8.[21] The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces performed airstrikes and UAV reconnaissance northeast of Kharkiv Metropolis.[22] Russian forces additionally struck residential areas close to central Kharkiv Metropolis with a number of launch rocket methods (MLRS) and continued to strike Kharkiv Metropolis and surrounding settlements with S-300 missiles, mortars, tanks, and tank, tube, and rocket artillery.[23]

Supporting Effort #2—Southern Axis (Russian goal: Defend Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts towards Ukrainian counterattacks)

Russian forces continued focusing efforts on sustaining their present positions and stopping Ukrainian advances alongside the Southern Axis on August 8.[24] The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces continued shelling civilian and navy infrastructure utilizing tank, tube, and rocket artillery and intensified aerial reconnaissance utilizing UAVs alongside the complete line of contact.[25] Russian forces additionally performed airstrikes on Lozove and Andriivka, each on the japanese financial institution of the Inhulets River, and Olhyne, positioned alongside the northern a part of the T2207 freeway.[26] The Ukrainian Normal Workers reported that Russian forces additionally performed airstrikes in Prechistivka, Volodymyrivka, Novomykhailivka, and Poltavka.[27]

Russian forces continued to focus on settlements in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts with artillery and missiles. Ukrainian officers reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-59 cruise missiles at Kamianske and continued shelling Nikopol, Zelendolsk, Marhanets, and Velika Kostromka, Dniprotrovsk Oblast.[28] Russian forces additionally continued shelling settlements on the outskirts of Mykolaiv Metropolis however didn’t launch any strikes instantly on Mykolaiv Metropolis.[29] Odesa officers reported that Ukrainian air protection forces shot down 4 Russian Kalibr missiles fired from the Black Sea.[30]

Ukrainian forces continued concentrating on Russian navy positions and ammunition depots in Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reported that Ukrainian excessive mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS) strikes destroyed a “important quantity of” Russian navy tools and manpower concentrations in industrial districts all through Melitopol at night time on August 7-8.[31] Fedorov additionally famous that Russian forces transferred a major a part of their air protection methods from Melitopol to Kherson throughout the week of July 31-August 7.[32] Ukrainian officers confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivsky and Kakhovka bridges at night time on August 7-8.[33] Russian Deputy Head of the Russian Occupation Administration in Kherson Oblast Kirill Stremousov said that Russian officers will postpone reopening the Antonivskyi bridge, scheduled for August 10, because of the injury to development tools close to the bridge.[34] Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Vladislav Nazarov reported that Ukrainian airstrikes hit two Russian strongholds within the Kherson and Berislav districts and that Ukrainian oblique fireplace destroyed a Russian ammunition depot in Charivne, roughly 65 km northeast of Kherson Metropolis on August 7.[35]

Mobilization and Power Technology Efforts (Russian goal: Increase fight energy with out conducting basic mobilization)

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov said {that a} Russian Special Forces volunteer group accomplished a two-week accelerated tactical and fireplace coaching course on the Russian Special Forces College in Gudermes, Chechnya.[36] Kadyrov said {that a} flight of volunteers departed the Grozny airport for deployment to an unspecified space in Ukraine on August 8.[37]

Exercise in Russian-occupied Areas (Russian goal: consolidate administrative management of occupied areas; set circumstances for potential annexation into the Russian Federation or another future political association of Moscow’s selecting)

Ukraine’s Primary Navy Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 8 that Russian forces are deploying less-professional occupation forces and rising stress on native populations. The GUR reported that Russian occupation forces are rising stress on civilians at checkpoints in Kherson Oblast, significantly in Hola Prystan. The GUR reported that Russian forces deployed a newly mobilized battalion of Russian convicted criminals (seemingly pardoned for his or her service) to Balaklia, Kharkiv Oblast, and that cruelty, “immoral habits,” and aggressive attitudes towards the native inhabitants “elevated sharply” upon their arrival.[38] This report demonstrates one impact of Russia’s wide-ranging try to mobilize as many Russians as doable, no matter health for service. The GUR additionally reported that racialized conflicts between Russian occupation items of various ethnicities are rising, affecting the security of civilians in occupied areas. The GUR claimed that Russian forces shot and killed the Chechen deputy commander of a unit in Zaporizhia for ethnically motivated causes. The GUR additionally reported that an intoxicated Russian soldier driving an armored personnel provider (APC) knocked down {an electrical} pole in Zelenopillya, Luhansk Oblast, slicing off electrical energy to the city.

Newly mobilized Russian battalions are seemingly worse skilled, much less skilled, and extra brutal to occupied populations than skilled Russian troopers and even conscripts who accomplished formal navy coaching previous to their deployments. Russian forces might more and more deploy low-quality, poorly skilled items, like these made up of convicts, to regulate populations in occupied elements of Ukraine. Such deployments might scale back the competence of occupation authorities and counter-partisan operations and should enhance Ukrainian help for actions that resist Russia’s occupation.

Russian occupation officers are starting to problem formal orders to organize for sham annexation referenda. The pinnacle of the Russian Zaporizhia Oblast Occupation Administration, Yevheny Balitsky, mentioned on August 8 that he ordered the oblast’s central election fee “to start out engaged on the difficulty of organizing a referendum on the reunification of Zaporizhia Oblast with the Russian Federation.”[39] Balitsky claimed that he signed the order after 700 delegates voted “unanimously” on the “We Are Along with Russia” occasion held in Zaporizhia Oblast on August 8. ISW has beforehand assessed that the Kremlin seemingly based, coordinates, and promotes the “We Are Along with Russia” group to create a facade of public help for the annexation and integration of occupied Ukrainian oblasts into Russia.[40] Different Russian occupation officers amplified Balitsky’s referendum preparation and congratulated him for ”following the trail of Crimea.”[41] The Russian deputy head of the Kherson Occupation Administration, Kirill Stremousov, posted video footage on Telegram that he claimed confirmed residents of Kherson Oblast claiming that they’re able to vote in a referendum to hitch Russia.[42] Stremousov claimed that Kherson “has already been liberated from slavery and the colonial regime of the collective West.” Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov introduced on August 8 that residents of Kherson and Zaporizhia wish to maintain referendums to hitch Russia and claimed that “It isn’t us [the Kremlin] who’re holding the referendum.”[43]

Russian occupation officers are additionally making an attempt to incentivize Ukrainian cooperation with Russian information assortment efforts that occupation officers will seemingly use to falsify the outcomes of the sham annexation referenda however are going through resistance. The Ukrainian Resistance Heart reported on August 8 that Russian occupation forces in Kherson are increasing the variety of “one-time monetary help” areas at which civilians in occupied areas can obtain 10,000 rubles (roughly 165 USD) in trade for his or her passport information.[44] The Resistance Heart reported that this strategy has not generated as a lot information assortment as occupation officers had deliberate, main them to develop the variety of areas all through occupied Kherson Oblast.[45] Ukrainian partisan Telegram channel Yellow Ribbon referred to as on Kherson Oblast residents to mobilize and stop Russians from holding an annexation referendum on August 8 and requested civilians in occupied areas to offer info on Russian planning, collaborators, and troop actions.[46] Yellow Ribbon additionally shared photographs of partisan supporters posting partisan posters and slogans in Kherson, Nova Kakhovka, Melitopol, and Crimea on August 8 and referred to as on Ukrainians to withstand Russian “passportization” efforts.[47]

[1] https://www.thedailybeast.com/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-disaster-miraculously… ua/uk/voennye-novosti/524694-tut-budet-russka-zemlya-ili-vyzzhennaya-pustynya-komandir-okkupantov-na-zaporozhskoy-aes; https://antikor dot com.ua/ru/articles/565687-tut_budet_russkaja_zemlja_ili_vyhhennaja_pustynja__komandir_okkupantov_na_zaporohskoj_aes; https://information dot uaportal.com/section-telegram-news/news-tut-budet-ili-russkaya-zemlya-ili-vyizhzhennaya-pustyinya-okkupantyi-prigrozili-vzorvat-zaporozhskuyu-aes-v-sluchae-nastupleniya-vsu-08-08-2022.html; https://t.me/u_now/62146; https://t.me/orlovdmytroEn/780;

[2] https://zp-news dot ru/different/2022/08/08/14127.html; https://vk dot com/public213127547; https://vk dot com/public213127547?w=wall-213127547_3075

[3] https://t.me/mod_russia/18347

[4] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass…

[5] https://twitter.com/wammezz/standing/1556605121664106496?s=20&t=wzB8_Kk8dn…

[6] https://twitter.com/wammezz/standing/1556605152500523008?s=20&t=wzB8_Kk8dn…

[7] https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/08/world/europe/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-pow…

[8] https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass…

[9] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign…

[10]https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6d…

[11] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6d…

[12]https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02STQSgyvVQggZbz2E6d…

[13] https://t.me/epoddubny/11849

[14] https://www.fb.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02PUdiDteq3vuMhso5Tp…