By Michael Lipin
Exiled Belarusian sources say current Russian navy actions inside Belarus, a key Moscow ally, present Russia is making an attempt to keep up a menace of assault from Belarus in opposition to northern Ukraine after failing in a land-based assault on the area housing Ukraine’s capital Kyiv earlier this 12 months.
Whereas the Belarusian journalists, analysts and dissidents say one other Russian invasion of northern Ukraine from Belarus doesn’t seem imminent, that prospect has sparked a debate amongst them about whether or not the forces of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko would be part of such a Russian offensive.
Belarus-based Russian forces pushed into northern Ukraine in the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of the nation in late February in a bid to seize Kyiv, a 150-kilometer drive from the Belarusian border. Lukashenko stored his forces out of direct involvement within the invasion, whereas publicly supporting it and permitting Russia’s navy to make use of Belarusian territory and infrastructure.
Ukrainian forces provided with Western weapons stopped the Russian assault outdoors Kyiv and counterattacked, prompting a Russian withdrawal from northern Ukrainian areas round Kyiv and a retreat into Belarus by early April.
Russia had deployed tens of hundreds of troops in Belarus by the beginning of its all-out battle on Ukraine. Now, the Russian troop presence in Belarus is within the lots of, based on Franak Viacorka, a senior adviser to exiled Belarusian opposition chief Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya.
“There are solely as much as 1,000 Russian troops, however loads of Russian navy tools stays,” Viacorka advised VOA in a July 21 interview from the Latvian capital, Riga. “If the Russians determine to come back again to Belarus [in greater numbers] to assault Ukraine from Belarus territory, it’s nonetheless attainable,” he mentioned.
Lithuania-based unbiased Belarusian overseas coverage analyst Katsiaryna Shmatsina, who has labored for a number of U.S. and European analysis organizations, advised VOA by telephone that Russia would have two predominant objectives in any new assault on northern Ukraine by way of Belarus.
“Russia would have an interest to dam or undermine the cargo of Western navy assist via northern Ukraine, and in addition to distract consideration” from japanese and southern Ukraine, the place the nation’s forces are concentrated in opposition to the primary Russian offensive, Shmatsina mentioned.
A information outlet known as the Belarusian Hajun challenge, based by Lithuania-based exiled Belarusian dissident Anton Motolko, has been posting stories on Telegram and Twitter of virtually day by day sightings of Russian navy actions in Belarus in current weeks.
These stories by citizen journalists contained in the nation, some with pictures, embrace obvious sightings of Russian troops and navy autos on roads and Russian navy planes touchdown at and taking off from Belarusian airfields. These citizen journalists even have reported seeing Russian Iskander-M cell brief vary ballistic missile models and Russian S-400 cell surface-to-air missile models at an airfield within the Gomel district of southeastern Belarus.
Ukrainian officers mentioned Russia fired missiles from Belarus on the close by Chernihiv district of Ukraine on Thursday.
The Belarusian Hajun challenge tweeted what is alleged had been images of the Russian missiles being launched from a Belarusian airfield in Gomel.
VOA can’t independently confirm the images or the opposite reported sightings of Russian navy actions inside Belarus.
Shmatsina mentioned Motolko’s information outlet is the primary Belarusian supply of knowledge on these Russian actions, though she mentioned the accuracy of citizen journalist stories is unclear.
Open-source intelligence assessments from this month concluded that Belarus nonetheless is granting Russia entry to its airspace. These assessments pointed to Ukrainian intelligence sources that discovered Belarus probably transferred the usage of its Pribytki airfield in Gomel to Russia.
Viacorka mentioned a lot of the Russian forces in Belarus are sustaining tools, accumulating intelligence and speaking with Belarusian officers and navy personnel. “However these aren’t troops that normally are used for [land-based] operations in a battle,” he mentioned.
In a Thursday tweet, the Belarusian Hajun challenge mentioned it doesn’t see Russian forces in Belarus having the precise situations for an additional invasion of northern Ukraine within the close to future.
Some exiled Belarusian commentators see a longer-term menace of a Russian reinvasion and a possible for Belarusian navy forces to hitch such an assault on Ukraine for the primary time.
In a July 12 audio program produced by VOA sister community RFE/RL’s Russian Service, Belarusian political scientist Pavel Usov mentioned the most recent concentrations of Russian navy tools and personnel in Belarus point out a “slightly excessive likelihood that the northern entrance [of Russia’s war on Ukraine] might be opened once more.”
Usov, head of the Centre for Evaluation and Political Forecast in Warsaw, mentioned mutual protection agreements between Belarus and Russia, which workouts robust navy and financial affect over its smaller neighbor, create “conditions” for the direct involvement of Lukashenko’s armed forces within the Ukraine battle.
Chatting with the identical July 12 RFE/RL audio program, Belarusian journalist Natalya Radina additionally mentioned the Belarusian navy’s participation in one other Russian assault on Ukraine is feasible, citing current statements by Lukashenko and his deputy chief of the overall workers Ruslan Kosygin.
In a July 2 speech reported by Belarusian state information company BelTA, Lukashenko mentioned his armed forces “will struggle” if “the enemy” invades Belarusian territory, with out naming any nation. 4 days later, BelTA cited Kosygin as saying Belarus’ response to “any sort of armed provocation will certainly be enough and difficult.”
“In fact, [Lukashenko] desires to take part on this [Ukraine war],” mentioned Radina, a Warsaw-based chief editor for the Constitution-97 information outlet. “Much more aggressive statements are heard from his aspect than from the lips of [Russian President Vladimir] Putin … It’s clear that politically and economically he’s completely depending on Putin, however he himself enjoys his participation on this monstrous battle,” she mentioned.
Different Belarusian commentators had been skeptical that both Lukashenko or Putin would need Belarusian forces to hitch a Russian reinvasion of northern Ukraine.
Shmatsina mentioned many Belarusian troopers lack expertise in offensive operations and there’s little public help for them preventing in opposition to Ukraine. She additionally famous that Lukashenko has confronted a home legitimacy disaster since declaring himself the winner of a sixth presidential time period in a disputed 2020 election that the opposition, the US and European Union allege was rigged and that triggered weeks of public anti-Lukashenko protests.
“If we see Belarusian deaths in Ukraine, coffins returning house, this might create much more instability in Belarus. Would the Russians need this extra instability at their border?” Shmatsina mentioned. “Belarusian infrastructure appears to be rather more helpful for the Russian navy in Belarus [than Belarusian personnel],” she added.
Viacorka mentioned it’s attainable that some Belarusian navy officers would desert and resist orders to hitch Russia in preventing Ukraine. He additionally mentioned Russia might once more put together an invasion of northern Ukraine with out involving Belarusian officers, through which case he mentioned these officers “wouldn’t even find out about it.”
Latvian navy analyst Igors Rajevs, a reserve colonel of the Latvian Land Forces, mentioned in an interview with VOA’s Russian Service that he additionally sees no motivation for Russia or Belarus to alter their posture relating to involvement within the battle in opposition to Ukraine. The probably situation is for them to keep up the established order, he mentioned.
Nationwide Safety correspondent Jeff Seldin contributed to this report from Washington and VOA Russian stringer Anna Plotnikova contributed from Vilnius.
