Perched on excessive floor throughout the river from the bigger metropolis of Severodonetsk, the city of Lysychansk has performed a essential function during the last two months of the battle in japanese Ukraine. When Russian forces pressed into Severodonetsk in Might, they appeared to assume taking the town could be a cakewalk. Not solely did Russia nearly instantly declare to have management over that metropolis, Chechen chief Ramzan Kadyrov’s TikTok brigade even issued a video, filmed who is aware of the place, that claimed to indicate the residents of Severodonetsk greeting their Russian occupiers with “hugs and kisses.”
However when Russian forces really strolled into Severodonesk over the subsequent few days, they acquired an enormous shock. They acquired their heat hug. From massed artillery. Inside days, greater than two-thirds of Severodonetsk was again in Ukrainian management.
Over the next month, Ukraine surrendered the town block by block as Russia introduced increasingly more forces into the world. Ukrainian forces lastly withdrew from Severodonetsk within the final week of June, however they did so in an orderly vogue, getting troops again throughout the river and leaving little behind when it comes to arms or different tools. Ukraine misplaced the town, nevertheless it wasn’t a rout. Each the harm that Russian took in making an attempt to seize Severodonetsk and the cautious manner during which Ukraine was in a position to get civilians and army forces out forward of the ultimate Russian advance, had been due to the weapons wanting down from Lysychansk.
With steep hills alongside the south and sharp bluffs going through the river, Lysychansk was the proper place to host Ukraine’s lengthy weapons, together with M777 howitzers freshly arrived from the US. From that place, artillery couldn’t simply fireplace down on Russian forces trying to maneuver alongside the town’s streets, it might “attain out and contact” Russia’s personal heavy weaponry a number of kilometers north and west of the town.
Lysychansk’s place, far out on the top of the Ukrainian salient within the Luhansk, made it potential to fireplace at forces throughout the river to the north, or approaching from Popasna to the south. Though a reported three M777s had been misplaced, daily the NASA FIRMS maps gave the identical report—Lysychansk was dealing out a lot extra harm than it was receiving. From Lysychansk, Ukraine was in a position to repeatedly hit Russian batteries working on the far facet of Rubizhne and round Kreminna to the north. The toll of these weapons is unlikely to ever be identified. But it surely was excessive.
Nevertheless, the identical factor that made Lysychansk such a worthwhile place—the way it juts out in an space surrounded by Russian management on three sides—is now making it extraordinarily susceptible.
Alongside the east facet of the city, the Siverski Donets River runs onerous towards a collection of excessive bluffs, making any method from Severodonestk tough. On the south finish of the town are steep hills, some wooded, some clustered with buildings, which made that method tough. Each woods and buildings created areas that had been tailored for ambushes, and the hills had been already assured to sluggish an advance lengthy sufficient to usher in extra withering artillery fireplace.
Nevertheless, during the last month, Russia has occupied over 1,500 sq. kilometers in Ukraine. A large a part of that acquire got here when Russian forces pushed by way of the Ukrainian line of defense at Toshkiva and moved swiftly to seize a collection of cities and villages south and southwest of Lysychansnk. Over the weekend, Russian forces moved up these steep hills on the south facet, bringing the struggle to the streets of the town. On the similar time, Russian forces seem to have crossed the river to the north and are urgent down towards Novodruzhesk.
Most critically, Russian forces have been preventing it out with Ukrainian troops within the oil refinery and related vegetation at Verkhnokamyanka, southwest of Lysychansk. From this place, Russian troops are threatening to maneuver into the town alongside a serious freeway, and will lower off any forces nonetheless holding the southern method. Lysychansk is in a vice and, good artillery place it could be, it’s not price the price of remaining.
On Thursday, Ukrainian forces seemed to be doing the cheap factor and withdrawing from the world. Reviews are that heavy tools has been shifting west alongside the highway previous Bilhorivka (web site of that Russian river crossing catastrophe). Each artillery and troops are reportedly digging in close to Siversk, about 20km west of Lysychansk.
This is smart, as Siversk is nearly instantly north of Bakhmut, the place Ukrainian troops have been pushing again tried Russian advances for over a month. Bakhmut is a essential junction for each highways and rail. A lot of the provides that had gone to Lysychansk and Severdonetsk flowed by way of there. Now Bakhmut and Siversk look to be Ukraine’s new line of protection within the east.
Russia’s actual targets within the space are the cities of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, positioned about 30km west of that Siversk-Bakhmut line. There’s not only a freeway between Siversk and Bakhmut, however a nonetheless functioning rail line. For now, at the very least, males and materiel can transfer swiftly alongside that line. There’s no giant river or line of bluffs to fall again behind. Nevertheless, there’s a vary of hills that looms up on the west facet of each Siversk and Bakhmut. Don’t be shocked if Ukrainian weapons transfer to the highest of these hills whereas Ukrainian troops dig in to guard the cities beneath.
Up to now, Russian forces trying to method Slovyansk and Kramatorsk alongside the western route, from the Russian focus of models at Izyum, have been pushed again many times round Dolyna, about 20km to the northwest. That’s prone to stay the essential place on the western edge, as there’s no different nice line of method until Russia intends to return to sq. one and try a a lot bigger swing to the west.
As Ukrainian forces pull again from Lysychansk and reform alongside the brand new line, what has been an extremely punishing artillery conflict might develop into even worse, with each side firing into far more concentrated positions. As far as Luhansk goes, that slice between Dolyna on one facet, and Siversk-Bakhmut on the opposite, is the entire ball recreation for Russian ambitions.
Ukraine has new weapons available, together with HIMARS and different MLRS, in addition to a set of artillery rolled in by NATO members. Russia has been shedding forces at an incredible price, and there have been talks of depleted battle teams and waning morale stretching again weeks. The check forward goes to be large … however Lysychansk has performed its half.
Ukraine will see it once more—when its forces are going the opposite manner.
Click on right here to donate to assist these escaping Putin’s unlawful invasion of Ukraine.
