The fourth installment of a multi-part sequence, this text was initially revealed in Armenian by Mediamax, on June 18, 2022.
Avetik Chalabyan’s authorized representatives have revealed the co-founder of ARAR Basis’s article penned on the Armavir Penitentiary Establishment, the place he’s presently being held beneath trumped up prices.
Within the earlier articles, I’ve tried to stipulate the prospects of the 2 key pillars of Armenia’s fateful alternative, the regathering of Armenians and modernization, and to current concrete concepts for his or her implementation. On this article, I’ll consider the third, and maybe essentially the most tough pillar, militarization, because it has garnered essentially the most resistance amongst totally different segments of our society. It has additionally prompted the regathering and modernization of Armenians to not achieve the specified momentum up to now, given its affiliation with conflict.
Previous to Nikol Pashinyan’s rise to energy, Armenia was fairly a militarized nation primarily based on some standards (akin to military to inhabitants ratio), the place it was among the many 5 most militarized nations on the planet, and for years and many years the whole society bore that burden. Regardless of such militarization, Armenia misplaced the catastrophic 44-day conflict, and the shock of that defeat led many to query each the prevailing protection mannequin and the necessity for militarization basically.
It isn’t unintentional that the clearly false and useless thought in regards to the “peace period” put into circulation by Pashinyan to start with discovered such a constructive response in broad segments of the society. Having survived two large-scale wars for 3 many years, being within the midst of continual hostilities round them, not having an actual sense of safety, Armenian society wants greater than a way of peace and minimal safety, and that’s honest.
However is peace potential by way of demilitarization, changing into secure for our hostile neighbors, as Pashinyan presents, or ought to we do the precise reverse?
That is in all probability our greatest disagreement with Pashinyan, and this disagreement has a deep, historic nature, and either side has its arguments which require trustworthy evaluation.
Pashinyan’s “doctrine of peace” relies on the truth that our two Turkish neighbors, in comparison with us, have massive navy and geopolitical assets, and confrontation with them will finally result in the defeat and steady losses of the Armenian facet, as evidenced by historic expertise. Due to this fact, in the long term, the Armenian state shouldn’t attempt to compete with our arch-enemies within the navy sphere, however by satisfying their “affordable” calls for, discover a secure and peaceable mannequin of coexistence, presumably beneath the auspices of the European Union.
Allow us to analyze these assertions one after the other. To start with, there is no such thing as a doubt that the Turkish tandem has extra assets, however it doesn’t comply with that it is ready to use these assets freely in opposition to the Armenian state, if the latter enjoys related alliance agreements. The most effective proof of which are the years 1991-1994. It was the primary Artsakh conflict, when Turkey, being constrained not solely by Russia but in addition by the US, throughout the three years of the conflict couldn’t be straight concerned in hostilities, having to be glad solely by common threats. Second, though this power is massive, its use in offensive operations, particularly in opposition to densely populated areas, additionally has limitations. It’s no coincidence that in 1918, the Ottoman military, which was 3 times bigger than the Armenian forces, superior by way of the abandoned territory of Western Armenia with out issue and reached the outskirts of Yerevan in three months, but it confronted important resistance by individuals defending their properties motivated to struggle to demise.
Third, trendy historical past has many fascinating examples when small nations, being militarized and prepared for conflict, have efficiently resisted massive nations. The most effective instance of that is Israel, which within the 25 years since its creation fought 4 instances with Egypt (and its allies) and received each time. Examples embrace the heroic resistance of little Finland in opposition to the Soviet Union in 1940, the widespread mobilization of Switzerland in 1941, which prevented Nazi Germany from invading, Vietnam’s resistance to the US invasion, and various comparable examples that present a easy stability of energy in trendy warfare. It could actually nonetheless predetermine the end result of a conflict if one facet, albeit a small one, is super-militarized and super-motivated, thus creating an insurmountable impediment for the robust facet.
Pashinyan’s final argument is that there is no such thing as a have to militarize whether it is potential to seek out the important thing to peace with the Turkish tandem and have the identical coexistence with them as we have now with our different neighbors, Iran and Georgia.
This might be appropriate if Turkey and Azerbaijan have been the identical as Iran and Georgia, that’s, they didn’t have large-scale appetites for Armenia and their different neighbors. The fact, nevertheless, is the precise reverse. To today, Turkey continues to insist on restoring the previous glory and energy of the Ottoman Empire, on the very least restoring all its Turkic-speaking components. By that logic, Turkish troops are in northern Syria (and are making ready to broaden their sphere of management), recurrently invading northern Iraq, having territorial disputes with Greece within the Aegean Sea and finishing up energetic financial growth in Georgia, already swallowing Adjara. If Turkey was glad with a “chilly” conflict in Armenia by 2020, the 44-day conflict made its intentions clear given its direct involvement and the decisive function in guaranteeing the end result of that conflict. To imagine that Turkey might be glad with that if it has a weak and demilitarized Armenia by its facet is naïve at greatest, particularly in mild of Turkey’s rising imperial aspirations.
Nevertheless, whereas Turkey a minimum of tries to cover these aspirations beneath diplomatic rhetoric, its youthful brother, Azerbaijan, is sort of vocal about its territorial ambitions in direction of Armenia. Azerbaijan considers that the fashionable Republic of Armenia was established in 1918 on the territories of former Azerbaijani “khanats” (principalities). Again in 1920, within the map of territorial claims submitted to the League of Nations, the Republic of Azerbaijan claimed not solely Artsakh and Nakhichevan, but in addition Syunik, Vayots Dzor, the jap a part of Gegharkunik, and most of Tavush and Ararat areas. With that map, solely half of in the present day’s Armenia will stay in Armenia.
Even in the present day, Azerbaijan doesn’t disguise these ambitions and is nicely conscious {that a} weak and demilitarized Armenia won’t be able to defend its territories, particularly in sparsely-populated areas akin to Syunik, Vayots Dzor and Gegharkunik. Azerbaijan already examined native invasions within the sovereign territory of the Republic of Armenia in 2021, and even within the situations of the peace settlement, it is going to proceed to strengthen its presence within the territory of Armenia by that and different means. Azerbaijan will attempt the identical in Artsakh, benefiting from the existence of various weak factors and the weak spot or tolerance of the peacekeeping troops there.
Due to this fact, regardless of how a lot Pashinyan insists that he’s decided to open an “period of peace” with our Turkish neighbors/enemies, will probably be at greatest an period of peaceable absorption and Turkification of Armenia (following the instance of Adjara), and at worst it might be accompanied by massacres and mass deportations, as already demonstrated in Hadrut and Shushi.
The fact is that Armenia is doomed with out militarization, however militarization itself is just not a sustainable resolution utilizing the mannequin utilized by the earlier authorities which led to waste of assets with out the specified safety final result.
The militarization of Armenia wants a well-thought-out, systemic mannequin, the principle components of which I’ll current beneath, hoping to additional develop this subject sooner or later.
First, let’s begin with the truth that militarization doesn’t imply simply a big military, however refers to all facets of state group.
In a militarized state, all private and non-private sector buildings should have clear plans for strengthening peacetime protection capabilities and finishing up missions in hostilities. Any financial, social or residential object should even have a navy significance, and in case of conflict it should be capable of serve the needs of defending the nation. The individuals of the nation should be ready for its protection from an early age, whether or not it’s within the coaching of their spirit, bodily coaching, technical data, and eventually, fight coaching, resulting in the nation having massive fight assets at its disposal at any given time.
All this needs to be managed by the state, however non-public buildings must also be actively concerned in fixing these issues.
In a militarized society, the particular companies should be capable of carry out the features of informing the military-political management of the nation, conducting military-technical intelligence, successfully combating the operations of international particular companies, and, if mandatory, finishing up particular duties outdoors Armenia. The duties of cyber safety and hybrid warfare within the financial, political, social and media spheres should be solved, and accomplished so by the whole society.
In a militarized nation, the navy business is of main significance; it should be capable of create advanced techniques and be capable of readily use them on the battlefield. It should not solely meet the wants of its personal military, but in addition turn out to be globally aggressive and supply export revenues to the nation (for comparability, in 2021, Israel’s navy exports exceeded the full gross output of the Armenian financial system).
The function of the navy can be altering in a militarized state. First, it turns into the important thing construction of the state (because it was in Armenia in its first decade of independence), receives its continued assist, and navy professions turn out to be extra highly effective within the state system, probably competing with the non-public sector. That is potential provided that the navy is quickly technologically outfitted, the place the career begins to be related to excessive expertise versus blood and sweat, and strikes constantly down the trail of growth and acquisition of common capabilities, which can be successfully used within the non-public sector after demobilization. Furthermore, non-public sector firms have to create demand for ex-servicemen within the labor market, additional guaranteeing that they won’t solely be in demand after demobilization, however may also be capable of capitalize on their data and expertise (a observe extensively used within the US and Israel, the place many retired servicemen are concerned within the navy business, politics and enterprise sectors).
Obligatory navy service in a militarized nation should be re-oriented on fight readiness and self-development, achieved by way of intensive coaching, not solely within the enchancment of fight capabilities, but in addition the acquisition of associated data required in peace time. This primarily applies to arithmetic and international languages, to which programming languages and managerial data might be selectively added, which is able to permit servicemen not solely to successfully carry out their fast fight duties, but in addition to combine rapidly into peace time life after service. This may also be facilitated by the one-time bonuses paid by the state after demobilization (relying on the effectivity of the service), which is able to permit the demobilized to have an adaptation interval earlier than beginning work or beginning new research. The primary fight power of the navy needs to be the contract servicemen recruited on a voluntary foundation, signed with the conscripts after the primary 12 months of their service, primarily based on their effectivity for long-term navy service. A 12 months later, the sergeants should be chosen from the identical employees, and one of the best of them should, after a while, bear officer coaching to turn out to be an officer (that is the observe in Israel). All contract servicemen should recurrently take part in navy workouts and practice, buying new fight gear and operational techniques. Expenditures on these workouts needs to be considerably elevated.
Conscripts who’re demobilized should kind into reservists, enlist in particular navy models (normally the place they served), and take part in annual mobilizations. That is an extra burden for the non-public sector, however in a militarized state it’s a necessity and an extra safety assure for a similar non-public sector.
The energetic reserve should be separated by the reserve power on a voluntary foundation. Lively reservists are essentially the most environment friendly half, the place they obtain further salaries from the state, have hooked up weapons and take part in mobilizations with a number of instances extra depth, and if mandatory, they’re the primary to replenish the navy ranks.
In a militarized state, the function of girls within the navy is equally necessary. In lots of trendy navy professions, ladies are on par with males, and in some circumstances even exceed their effectivity. Due to this fact, the navy should actively recruit ladies and supply efficient situations for fight coaching and repair. That course of has already began in Armenia and may achieve new momentum. The respect and fame of feminine staff should proceed to develop, and the state should present further social ensures for them, particularly in circumstances of getting and elevating youngsters.
Though the modernization of the navy and the group of navy affairs are the topic of a separate article (see a beforehand revealed article “Learn how to improve Armenia’s navy energy“), I want to merely point out right here that the long run Armenian military doesn’t need to be massive, however it should be extremely technological. The variety of the military of the Republic of Armenia could also be within the vary of fifty,000 servicemen, and one other 10-12,000 servicemen needs to be in Artsakh (primarily locals), however that navy should have a considerably totally different construction from in the present day. Two-thirds of in the present day’s military is the infantry, primarily concerned in fight safety. The duties of fight safety sooner or later navy should be extensively automated, and the personnel concerned in it should be diminished.
Furthermore, automation, the creation of a centralized community administration system utilizing synthetic intelligence, the transformation of the military right into a unified however on the identical time very versatile reconnaissance strike system, should turn out to be a brand new means of conducting fight operations on the bottom and within the air. On the identical time, decentralization strategies needs to be used within the administration of troops, during which case every tactical unit ought to be capable of carry out the duty independently.
Troopers should be skilled in each operational and tactical phrases and on the stage of particular person fighters to conduct each defensive and offensive operations. However, in fact, there should be models with particular specialization. Inside the framework of the above-mentioned unified system, the issue of multi-layered air safety should be solved, each by way of pilot aviation and unmanned aerial techniques, together with ideas from lone wolf or herd animal approaches.
The expertise of current wars reveals that the expertise of wars is irreversibly altering. This implies plane (together with drones), long-range and precision-guided technique of assault, specifically skilled and outfitted infantry in offensive operations, and the implementation of echeloned fortifications, that drastically cut back the effectiveness of varied enemy technique of assault, in defensive operations. Multi-layer air protection can be necessary. On this sense, the long run Armenian navy should discover an optimum stability within the growth of defensive and offensive means, relying on the overall assets at its disposal and the specifics of the terrain, in every case emphasizing the crucial of efficient protection of Armenian territories.
If in case you have reached this level, you’ll have a query in regards to the means by which all this needs to be applied, as a result of every proposed thought has a price ticket. At present, Armenia already spends about 4.5 % of its gross product on defensive wants, which is pretty excessive by worldwide requirements (Russia and Turkey spend about the identical proportion). The militarization of Armenia can be a tough alternative, as it is going to require a gentle improve in protection spending, presumably by as much as seven % of GDP in the long term, which is about 50 % larger than in the present day.
As the present state finances is already tight (though there are some financial savings alternatives, specifically by way of the optimization of the state equipment and the police), the rise in navy spending is feasible from three sources:
- Enhance in state revenues, furthermore, for focused protection expenditures (in the present day’s necessary funds to the Servicemen’s Insurance coverage Fund are a great instance of that)
- Attracting focused funds from the Diaspora within the type of investments, in addition to by way of numerous paid companies for citizenship (for instance, the fitting to take part in elections of their nation of residence).
- Free or preferential help from Allied States. You will need to broaden the circle of allies and deepen military-technical cooperation.
If all that is accomplished in a scientific and united method with long-term strategic logic, if a mutually useful dialogue is constructed with all our companions the place our targets are clear to them, then ultimately we will obtain the required stage of useful resource mobilization, as was the case in Israel (one other efficient instance is South Korea). The excellent news is that each one this has already been examined on a small scale. The Diaspora is already actively investing within the Armenian navy business; the nations which are pleasant to us recurrently present military-technical help; and each the inhabitants of Armenia and the Armenians dwelling overseas present huge assist to the navy throughout hostilities. There are already various military-patriotic organizations in Armenia in the present day, which additionally obtain assist from companies, and various charitable foundations assist the modernization of the navy, and so forth.
As within the case of training, many mechanisms have already been examined and are working. The duty of the following stage is to scale them and produce them collectively in a systemic method. For that, a brand new authorities should be shaped in Armenia, which is able to resign the Nikolist “peace-loving” illusions and can begin the militarization of the nation.
I urge you to consider what you personally are doing in the present day to extend the safety of our nation, and what you are able to do sooner or later from the intensive record offered on this article, which is far more intensive in actual life, offering every of us the chance to defend our proper to a free life in our personal nation.
Ara Nazarian is an affiliate professor of Orthopaedic Surgical procedure at Harvard Medical College. He graduated from Tennessee Technological College with a level in mechanical engineering, adopted by graduate levels from Boston College, Swiss Federal Institute of Expertise and Harvard College. He has been concerned within the Armenian group for over a decade, having served in a wide range of capacities on the Hamazkayin Armenian Academic and Cultural Society, the Armenian Cultural and Academic Heart, Armenian Nationwide Committee of America, St. Stephen’s Armenian Elementary College and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation.
