SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Okay, good morning, all people. “Senior protection official” right here. It has been some time since we talked, so I will do the perfect I can to carry all people as much as the place issues are immediately. I need to chat proper on the outset, saying that even whereas there was some adjustments to talk to from a macro-perspective, there actually aren’t numerous adjustments to talk to. However let’s simply begin with the fundamentals.
At the moment’s day 92. On June third, subsequent Friday, that will likely be day 100, for anyone who’s counting.
There at the moment are 110 operational battalion tactical teams in Ukraine — Russia BTGs in Ukraine, 110, nonetheless cut up amongst these groupings of troops that we have talked about. The most important contingent stays within the south, however the western grouping, the central grouping and the jap grouping every have roughly across the identical variety of BTGs inside Ukraine.
We assess that Russia has made some incremental positive factors in its push in the direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk; not lots however, however some incremental positive factors. There nonetheless is preventing for management over the city of Lyman, and we have talked about Lyman earlier than. That city lies simply to the northeast of Sloviansk and to the southeast of Izyum. So there’s nonetheless numerous exercise in that northern a part of the Donbas.
And the opposite space that’s value speaking about immediately can be within the northern Donbas to the — kind of the northeast a part of the — of that Donbas space the place they’re preventing, and that is the road between Severa — Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. These are two cities we’ve not actually talked about a lot, however we imagine that Russian forces have been in a position to seize most of northeastern Severodonetsk, despite the fact that there’s nonetheless preventing happening there. And it appears as in the event that they’re actually making an attempt to squeeze off Ukrainian forces which might be in that — in that space and down in the direction of Lysychansk. So simply one thing we’re watching.
However I need to stress that the give-and-take, no less than from a geographic perspective, remains to be small and in some methods, getting smaller now as we — as we’re now speaking about even smaller cities and villages that — however that is — however that is sort of what we’re seeing proper now.
Round Kharkiv, no main adjustments; nonetheless assess that the Ukrainians have continued to push Russian forces additional away. They’re nonetheless — we nonetheless assess it is a — it is a vary of some kilometers to greater than 10 kilometers inside the Russian border, so no main adjustments there.
There are — they’re — the Russian forces are making some sluggish progress north and west from round Popasna. Popasna is, once more, within the — within the northeastern Donbas space, nevertheless it’s most due south of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. So nonetheless numerous preventing round Popasna, however they — they’re transferring west out of Popasna.
Once more, what we expect is occurring right here is, in case you can — in case you can sort of zoom out somewhat bit, is that they’re — you recognize, we talked within the early days of the battle, they had been making an attempt to mainly reduce off the entire jap a part of the nation by be — being on three strains of axis, you recognize, from Kyiv, up from the south from Crimea, after which — and squeezing in from the east. Effectively, that did not work, so that they began to attempt to carve off the entire Donbas area by coming south out of Kharkiv and north out of Mariupol.
Effectively, they have not made a lot progress in that regard, so what we’re beginning to see is the — is an effort now to pinch off the very jap, the far-eastern parts of the Ukrainian forces which might be mainly positioned between Severodonetsk all the way in which all the way down to north of Popasna. So that you’re seeing it is a — it is an encirclement effort for positive; it is simply on a smaller geographic scale. And they’re making incremental progress in the direction of these objectives, incremental progress out of Popasna, incremental progress out of Severodonetsk in the direction of Lysychansk. However that is sort of what we’re seeing immediately.
No new advances popping out of Donetsk. I imply, we talked the final week about making an attempt to maneuver west out of Donetsk in the direction of Velyka Novosilka, and so they – they have not actually made any progress there in any respect.
Nothing to replace for you within the south; nonetheless some clashes however — with Ukrainian and Russian forces between Kherson and Mykolaiv, however — however no actual vital buying and selling of territory to talk to there.
Nothing to replace, actually, within the maritime surroundings. We proceed to see that their floor ships and LSTs stay off the west coast of Crimea. There was some reinforcement of Snake Island, for positive. They’re utilizing a few of their combatants to maneuver further air and missile protection capabilities to Snake Island, however apart from that, there actually hasn’t been a lot to speak about within the — within the Black Sea or the maritime surroundings.
On the — on the safety help facet, I do know all of you’re going to ask me in regards to the subsequent PDA, PDA 11. No ultimate choices have been made about PDA 11 both by way of what it may embrace and when it may be introduced. So I simply need to get forward of that one proper now, and I do know that you will ask me in regards to the potential for HIMARS being in there. I am not going to speak in regards to the — what the potential content material of PDA 11’s going to appear to be. You understand, when it is determined, it is determined, after which we’ll — after which we’ll communicate to it.
What — what’s already in, you recognize, the previous couple of PDAs, of the — of the now complete of 108 M777 howitzers that had been dedicated during the last three PDAs, 85 of them are ahead, we all know, with the Ukrainian navy, offering lengthy vary fireplace functionality.
And of the now complete of 209,000 155 millimeter projectiles that had been promised to Ukraine, we now know that 91 % of that — and mainly 190,000 of them — have been transferred to the Ukrainian navy and are of their possession.
9 of the 11 Mi-17s have been transferred to the Ukrainians. The final two will likely be arriving both late this month or — or very early in June, we expect. 73 % of the Switchblades, the 300 Switchblades, have been transferred to the Ukrainians. That is the 220 — I feel that is the quantity we nonetheless had final time that we talked. We’re nonetheless sourcing the rest of these and getting them there.
On the coaching facet, we now depend 419 Ukrainian troopers have accomplished M777 coaching. That is the operator coaching. About 30 have accomplished the fundamental foremost — upkeep course after which one other 17 have accomplished the superior 14-day maintainer course, which is somewhat bit longer, somewhat bit extra detailed. And we’ll proceed to cycle college students by way of that coaching as — as wanted and because the Ukrainians need.
On the Phoenix Ghost, as a result of we all know that required coaching, the second iteration with about 14 Ukrainian — I am sorry, be a complete of just about 20 Ukrainian troops — are persevering with now within the second iteration of Phoenix Ghost coaching. They — they’re going to full that coaching by the tip of the month however that is the second class, about 20. They will undergo the tip of the month. In order that’s — that is happening — on tempo.
And we’re additionally serving to facilitate some coaching of Ukrainians for coastal protection missiles, now that the Danes are going to be contributing Harpoon — Harpoon launchers and autos. So there’s some coaching that must be accomplished on how one can use — the Harpoon was not designed for coastal protection, it was designed for anti-ship warfare, ship-to-ship warfare, so it is a comparatively new utility of the missile, and subsequently, we all know that they will want somewhat bit of coaching on that. And so — and in order that — that is taking place proper now outdoors of Ukraine, after all, and we’ll — just below 20 Ukrainians are going by way of that coaching proper now. And we suspect that they’re going to in all probability be — must do extra of that going ahead.
Okay, I feel that is in all probability sufficient to start out with. Go forward, Lita.
Q: Thanks.
You — are you — I do know you talked about you do not need to get into what’s within the subsequent PDA however simply extra broadly on provides, with the majority of the combat being within the Donbas, are you able to simply discuss somewhat bit about how way more tough it’s getting — to get provides to the Ukraine troops in that area due to the distances?
After which secondly, are you able to tackle kind of this ongoing effort to get a few of the grain out by prepare? Is there any U.S. involvement in a few of this effort to get a few of the provides out? And is it seen as something that may even be even remotely useful, because the trains cannot carry that a lot?
Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah, on the — on the — the grain, they’re — I — I do know of no U.S. navy efforts concerned in that — in that motion, Lita.
And in your — your first query, you are proper, we’re not going to get into — into an excessive amount of of the small print right here of the following PDA, however as for resupply, the — the indications that we get from the Ukrainians — and once more, we discuss to them on a regular basis — is that this materiel remains to be getting in to front-line items.
And once more, they — they’re those that decide that, how and when and — and the place they put issues, however our — what we’re getting from them is that they — they nonetheless have the flexibility to maneuver weapons in — into their front-line items. In truth, I imply, the — the very strident name that you simply heard from President Zelenskyy final evening for extra — extra programs being wanted, I feel, is indicative of his sturdy perception that he can proceed to get them into the arms of the — the fighters that want them most.
Now, that is to not say that — in these villages that we speak about, that the Russians aren’t making an attempt to encircle these villages and reduce them off. Severodonetsk is an effective instance — they — that they’re making an attempt to — to make it very tough for the Ukrainians to resupply themselves in and round Severodonetsk.
And — however — however, you recognize, that is — that is pretty localized. You understand, when — while you step again and zoom out on the Donbas writ giant, which is the place the — the preventing does primarily persist, they’re nonetheless in a position to get issues in — into the items there.
Jim Garamone?
Q: Thanks, (inaudible).
(Inaudible), the Russian assaults on two cities in Donbas, are they — are they totally different from earlier assaults? And I assume what I am actually making an attempt — asking about is prior to now, you’ve got all the time stated that we now have to anticipate the Russians to be taught from their experiences. And I am simply questioning, have they discovered?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: The — they’re making an attempt to beat a few of the challenges that they’ve had — command and management, logistics sustainment, maneuver — however by and enormous, Jim, the — what we’re seeing them do, it is — it is — it is a extra localized effort. You understand, they — as we talked about final week, they’re utilizing smaller items to go after smaller goals. So extra of a piecemeal strategy.
However they’re nonetheless doing it in a reasonably doctrinal manner, utilizing artillery fireplace prematurely after which — after which transferring items solely after they really feel like they’ve softened up the goal sufficient. However they’re — however they — however they’ve the numbers on their facet. And in order that’s why I feel we proceed to see this incremental progress.
Nevertheless it’s not — we’re not seeing numerous — in a — in case you’re asking me — you recognize, we’re not likely seeing numerous progressive, artistic methods of transferring on targets. It is just about the identical doctrinal strategy that they’ve — that they’ve taken prior to now.
Heather?
Q: Sorry about that.
I used to be questioning in case you may discuss somewhat bit extra about what you are seeing round Snake Island and what the Russians may be utilizing that for and why there may be an elevated maritime presence there?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah, the Russians are in possession of Snake Island. They’re — they — the — you — we talked about this two, possibly three weeks in the past, the Ukrainians had been — had been assaulting Snake Island, making an attempt to dislodge the Russians. They weren’t in a position to do this. And since — due to these early efforts, the Russians are reinforcing Snake Island.
So primarily, they’re placing programs ashore, largely air and missile protection programs, to guard it. We’re additionally seeing them fly fight air patrol missions over Snake Island, within the northern Black Sea there to kind of shield that possession.
So what we’re seeing, mainly, is the Russians are in command of it. They need to keep in command of it. They’re placing issues on the island and flying over the island, in a manner, to maintain — to assist maintain their possession of it. That is mainly the gist of it.
Tara Copp?
Q: Good morning.
I wished to know in case you may give us an total evaluation of the injury that has been accomplished to Russia’s navy due to this invasion.
The Ukrainian MOD put out a tweet immediately saying that nearly 30,000 Russian troopers have been killed, you recognize, a whole bunch of tanks, a whole bunch of plane. How a lot injury has this accomplished to their capability to wage battle?
And is that this why they’ve restricted their operations to the Donbas, in your view?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I feel these are two totally different questions, to be fairly sincere with you. I am not going to get into casualty counts. You guys know we have averted that as a result of we simply do not have a really excessive confidence stage on that.
However simply to undergo some examples, I imply — and I am not going to undergo every little thing, however we do imagine that the Russian navy has suffered a not — and I do know that is going to sound like I am being — I am parsing it, however, truly, I do not care; I’m parsing it — that they’ve suffered a not insignificant quantity of attrition all through the final couple of months right here on this battle, virtually — nicely, truly, we’re into a 3rd month now, day 92.
So, as an illustration, we imagine they’ve misplaced or rendered inoperable virtually 1,000 of their tanks in — on this combat. They nonetheless have lots left accessible to them. However we — you recognize, we expect they misplaced practically about 1,000. They’ve misplaced nicely over 350 artillery items. They’ve — they’ve misplaced virtually three dozen fighter — fighter bomber fixed-wing plane and — and greater than 50 helicopters. However, once more, they nonetheless have numerous functionality left to them, as we now have been speaking about.
They’ve dedicated, of their total battalion tactical teams, their complete floor — bear in mind, they arrange by BTG. So we’ll maintain it at that unit. However, you recognize, greater than 80 % of their complete battalion tactical teams are dedicated to the battle in Ukraine. And that — that is lots. And I simply instructed you proper now they have — 110 are in there.
In order that they have put a — they’ve invested an terrible lot of — of their {hardware} and their personnel on this combat. They usually have — and so they have suffered losses. The Ukrainians have suffered losses, too. However the Russians have suffered losses.
We nonetheless imagine, although, with all that, Tara, that they nonetheless have the — a major quantity of nearly all of their functionality left to them. And earlier, after I was speaking in regards to the Donbas preventing and up within the northeast, there, that, you recognize, they’re making incremental positive factors. They’re positive factors, however they’re — however they’re incremental, and — and a part of it’s as a result of the Russians do have superiority right here by way of the numbers of property they’ll apply to this combat, each by way of folks and — and gear and weapons. And we simply need to, you recognize, bear that in thoughts.
It is to not say that the Ukrainians haven’t been simply extremely skillful in preventing again. And naturally the complete remainder of the world is doing what we will to replenish their very own expenditure of — of programs and weapons.
I — hopefully that solutions your query.
(CROSSTALK)
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Jeff Seldin — Jeff Seldin?
Q: Thanks very a lot for doing this.
A pair questions. I do know you talked in regards to the — the Ukrainians with the ability to get the safety support that is coming to the entrance strains, based mostly on — on what they’re telling you, however given the way in which the combat goes proper now in jap Ukr0aine, the forwards and backwards, how for much longer does the Ukrainian navy have the potential to maintain efforts, to include even — as — as extra nations pledge support and — and programs just like the Harpoons, how for much longer can they — have they got the capability to maintain that, in what’s trying to be the drawn out combat?
Additionally, following up somewhat bit on — on the casualties — not asking for — for a quantity or something — nevertheless it looks like early on within the battle, the Ukrainians had been in a position to inflict heavier injury and casualties on the Russian facet. Has that tempo stored up or have the adjustments that Russia’s made restricted the tempo of Russia’s losses of late?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I imply, with out — on daily basis’s totally different, Jeff. I’d inform you that the Russians transfer troopers on daily basis nevertheless it’s a distinct — it is a totally different quantity based mostly on the sort of preventing we’re seeing. And the preventing is now largely over smaller items of turf with smaller items.
However once more, it varies from day after day and it is — it spreads out throughout the Donbas. Within the northeast Donbas, the northwest Donbas, even the southern Donbas space, you are seeing clashes on daily basis. And in accordance, we’re additionally seeing fight manner down south in and round Kherson.
So casualties are being suffered by either side on daily basis. That is battle nevertheless it adjustments on a day-to-day foundation. All I can inform you is that the — you recognize, the fights themselves are taking place over smaller items of floor with smaller items. I feel that is one of the best ways I can reply that.
And you then had one other query that I fully forgot.
Q: You understand, simply in regards to the Ukrainian navy’s functionality to — or capability to proceed to absorb extra support.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah. Look, I feel it is tough to foretell, you recognize, the — the query “how for much longer?” I do not assume anyone may offer you an actual sense of that, Jeff.
I imply, we stated way back, when the Russians reoriented the combat to the Donbas, that this may very well be a protracted battle, that it was going to depend on artillery and long-range fires and it may — and it may final a very long time. And we’re beginning to see that play out, as it’s in truth very a lot an artillery duel and now it is a — it is a scrap over, once more, smaller items of earth with smaller items. And it may — it may go on for fairly some time.
What — what I can inform you — whereas I am unable to predict how lengthy, what I can inform you for positive is that the division is dedicated to serving to Ukraine for so long as we probably can. I imply — and the — the supplemental requests that we requested for — and naturally, Congress added cash to that — that is, I feel, indicative of an effort to stretch this assist out in coming months. And we’re — and we’re completely dedicated to doing that.
Kasim?
Okay, nothing heard. David Martin?
Q: Because the final time you briefed, the Russians have made no less than one declare of getting struck a depot the place Western navy provides had been positioned.
So my first query is do you’ve got any indication that the Russians have succeeded but of their makes an attempt to hit any of those depots the place the — the weapons find yourself on their option to the entrance?
And second, this — this complete effort of anti-ship missiles and coastal protection, what’s the — what’s the function of that? Is it to — to push the Russian warships additional away from the coast in order that they can’t launch missiles or is it in some way supposed to interrupt the blockade of Odesa? And the way wouldn’t it break the blockade of Odesa if it simply would transfer the issue additional out to — into the Black Sea?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah. On the primary one, we haven’t any indications that Western gear or programs have been — have — have been struck. I imply, we might solely know that if the Ukrainians instructed us that and — and we now have seen no indication from them.
I’d be — I — you recognize, additionally, David, as soon as — as soon as the materiel will get inside Ukraine, it is Ukrainian property and we do not — we do not know the place they’re storing it or for a way lengthy. It is the — their — their — their drivers come get it and produce it into the nation and — and it is their property.
So we now have seen no indication and the Ukrainians haven’t indicated to us that the Russians have been profitable in hitting any Western gear at — at — at varied storage amenities. However once more, I — I’ve to caveat that by saying that we — we do not — we would not know if — we would not know that until the Ukrainians had been — had been in a position to inform us as a result of we do not monitor these items as soon as they get contained in the nation — the place they go, the place they’re saved, for a way lengthy.
Each indication that we now have had from the Ukrainians is that — that, to the diploma issues are saved, they are not being saved typically — I am not speaking about each system — however typically, not being saved, you recognize, long run. They’re — they’re getting these items into the combat as a lot as they’ll.
Once more, there’s some storage for positive, trigger there’s stuff that is (flowing ?) on daily basis. So we — it isn’t — it isn’t hand-to-mouth on any given day however — however that is — that is the way in which it is working.
And on the — on the anti-ship missiles, I definitely will not communicate for Ukrainian planning and operational planning, by way of what and — what they intend to do. Clearly, they’ve a coastal protection requirement, as a result of the — the — the Russians nonetheless have naval superiority within the Black Sea and since there’s a blockade. So there — there is a reputable want for coastal protection.
We’ve not seen the Russians strategy near the coast because the Moskva was sank — sunk — sunk — I ought to know that — and but the blockade continues efficiently. So once more, I — I do not need to communicate for the Ukrainians nevertheless it — it’s definitely — the — the Russians have confirmed that they’ll blockade main ports — Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and never have their ships near these ports. They’ve — they’ve confirmed that they’ll try this.
However the Ukrainians do have a reputable coastal protection requirement, given the threats that the Russians have been in a position to current nearer in –- in earlier weeks, and that is what — that — our assumption is that is what these — these weapons will likely be — will likely be used for, to assist them with coastal protection.
Q: Can I observe up with yet another query, which is, in case you may clarify the strategic significance of Snake Island. Each side appear to have lots invested on — in it, and while you take a look at it on a map its significance simply does not actually soar out at you.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah, I imply, to some extent we — we expect there is a — there — nicely, let me — I imply, it — take a look at its place within the — within the northern a part of the Black Sea. If — it’s — it lies simply to the west of the western tip of the Crimea Peninsula and simply off the — simply off the coast of the very, very southwest a part of the Ukrainian presence on the Black Sea. So from a strategic perspective, if you wish to blockade and — and have the ability to preserve naval superiority in that northern Black Sea space, having a foothold like Snake Island could be priceless, significantly now they’re placing air and missile protection programs on that island to additionally assist naval operations within the Black Sea from Snake Island.
So simply from geographic — a geographic perspective, it provides to their maritime and air functionality within the northern Black Sea and — and the — and you’ll — you may function on Snake Island and assist your naval — your — your naval items on the identical time. So we expect that that is in all probability a part of the rationale that they are — that they are persevering with to attempt to ensconce themselves there. It provides them further choices. It provides them further flexibility within the northern Black Sea, significantly in a world the place they — they cannot — or they do not really feel snug working their ships any nearer to the coast.
Tom Squitieri?
Okay, Courtney?
Q: Oh, good day, (inaudible). Are you able to hear me, (inaudible)? Good morning.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah, I obtained you.
Q: Sorry in regards to the delay.
Within the briefing Monday, the secretary talked about a few of the nations which might be serving to Ukraine with provides and coaching, and he talked about Colombia. I do know you do not like to call nations, letting them announce their contributions, however may you say usually, are there another Latin America nations moreover Colombia serving to? And are any African nations?
Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I do not the record of all 20. I will have to return and see if I can get that, Tom. I imply, we’re not going to go — we’re not going to element nations and what they’ve agreed to do. However I understand you are simply asking for areas. I will attempt to see if I can provide you with that. I — I simply do not have that useful proper now.
Q: Okay, thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Proper.
Courtney?
Q: I’ve a few clarifications. So the 108 — or, I am sorry — the — the 85 howitzers that you simply stated are ahead with the Ukrainian navy, I simply need to be clear. Whenever you stated that they are — that the Ukrainians have instructed you that they are ahead, that simply means inside Ukraine; it does not essentially imply on the entrance strains, proper?
After which additionally, did you say that there have been 73 % of the Switchblades? Which, I feel there’s 700 which have been dedicated, in order that — that is 73 % of these at the moment are inside Ukraine?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Of the 300 that we now have moved — we now have dedicated to getting them 700, however the — however we’re targeted on that first tranche of 300, and of that first tranche of 300, 220 are within the nation. And that is the place I get the 73 %. So we’re simply targeted on that 300 proper now, Court docket.
And after I say “ahead”, I imply that — that 85 of the 108 are literally being utilized in fight by the Ukrainians. Now, the place they do that’s, once more, as much as them. However after we say “ahead”, we imply ahead, on the entrance strains within the combat, within the scrap.
Q: Okay, nice.
After which two different issues. The — on the — the Dutch — Denmark and the Harpoons, do you’ve got any sense when — I believed it was only one Harpoon launcher, however right me if I am flawed — when the Harpoon launcher or any of the Harpoons, the precise missiles, will likely be delivered?
After which simply since we’ve not had a backgrounder shortly, are you able to simply replace us if there’s been any change in — within the Russian nuclear posture, any indications that they may be contemplating making ready in any manner to make use of any sort of a tactical nuke?
Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I do not know in regards to the — the Harpoons. I imply, that is actually a query for Denmark. I do not know what their schedule is, however we wished that — we knew it was going to require coaching, we and the Danes, and so we’re engaged on getting that coaching. It is truly ongoing, as a result of it is a — a distinct manner of utilizing that system, and it isn’t a system — the Harpoon isn’t a system the Ukrainians are acquainted with.
On the nuclear entrance, no adjustments. We — I have not seen any — something that may point out that we would wish to vary our strategic deterrent posture, no — nothing that may point out an imminent use of tactical nuclear weapons by the Russians.
Luis Martinez?
Q: Hey, good morning.
You talked about HIMARS on the prime. The Ukrainians have additionally talked about this. They’ve additionally talked about MLRS in the identical breath. Are you able to clarify why HIMARS or another equal M — MLRS system could be helpful to them, please?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah, what — what I discussed on the prime was that I am not going to say it as a result of it isn’t — there’s been no choices, Luis. Look, I — I do not — I do not need to — I do not need to get forward of — of — of the following presidential drawdown authority bundle. I simply — I need to be very cautious right here on this.
You’ve heard that the — that the Ukrainians have requested for MLRS programs, multi-launch rocket programs present better vary and better firepower than a typical artillery system, and you recognize, they — they, the Ukrainians, have made it clear and we do not disagree that — that this combat within the Donbas is a combat that is heavily-reliant on long-range fires, and we have already seen the diploma to which artillery programs on either side are — are getting used on daily basis. So I feel I’d simply depart it at that.
(CROSSTALK)
Q: Okay, observe — can I observe up actual fast on — you additionally, on the prime, talked in regards to the incremental progress that they are making — that the Russians are making within the Donbas. It is sort of portrayed — you’ve got been speaking lately in regards to the back-and-forth nature of this. Is that altering, or is that this actually the momentum now extra on the Russians?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: It — it — I feel it depends upon the place on the map you are taking a look at, you recognize? If you happen to’re taking a look at — in case you’re taking a look at popping out of Popasna, yeah, they’ve — they have Popasna, and so they’re transferring towards the west. If you happen to’re taking a look at Kharkiv, clearly, no. The Ukrainians clearly proceed to have the momentum up in Kharkiv.
And somewhere else like Sever — Severodonetsk, they’ve primarily encircled Severodonetsk, however they have not been in a position to reduce it fully off as a result of the Ukrainians are nonetheless preventing over it. So it — it is an open query.
I imply, actually, Luis, if I may sit down with you in my workplace with a map and we simply checked out every of those hamlets and villages and cities, you’d see a altering — you’d see a altering perspective on daily basis, the place — the place territory adjustments arms. However typically, as I take 10 steps out and take a look at the –the Donbas typically, our evaluation immediately is that the Russians have made some incremental positive factors.
So positive factors is vital. I perceive that that is — and that is correct. Nevertheless it’s additionally actually vital to not overlook the — the adjective there, “incremental.” It is not wholesale. It is not overly aggressive. And it is — it hasn’t been with out its drawbacks and setbacks by the Ukrainian resistance. However — however they’re making incremental positive factors in — in lots of of those locations within the northeast Donbas.
Q: Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Paul Handley?
Okay, nothing heard. I will go, final query, to Dimitri from Inter TV.
Q: Yeah, good morning. Thanks.
I’ve simply obtained a few questions in regards to the Harpoons and, because it had been, on the background. So, firstly, may you simply inform about your understanding, your imaginative and prescient of the entire plan?
What I noticed within the media, we had been instructed that, probably, as a result of if the Harpoons will likely be in Ukrainian ports like in Odessa, Russians might want to transfer their vessels out of the vary, which is 300 kilometers. Is it proper?
Secondly, what’s your understanding; what’s your estimate in regards to the quantity Ukraine wants. What I heard from Ukraine, they had been — they instructed me, “We’d like no less than 20.” So what’s your imaginative and prescient?
And, third query, is it fairly proper that the problem is that Ukraine wants to make use of Harpoons not from the ocean, not from the vessels however from the bottom?
Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Yeah, look, on the Harpoons, I’ll — you must discuss to the Ukrainian authorities right here about their intentions for utilizing them and the way. That is — they are going to be their programs, and they will be designed for coastal protection. That is an adaptation of the missile for coastal protection. And I feel I answered the perfect I may when David requested me about that.
How they’re going to precisely get used, I will let the Ukrainians communicate to that. I am not gonna speak about particular ranges right here. It’s a very succesful ship-to-ship missile, with sufficient vary and firepower to be efficient, however I am not going to get into hypotheticals on how the Ukrainians will use that.
Your second query, I didn’t get. I did not perceive it. Are you able to repeat it?
Q: Certain. What’s your estimate what number of Harpoons Ukraine wants on this stage?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Oh, once more, I would refer you to the Ukrainian Ministry of Protection — Ministry of Protection on that. It — I am not gonna — I am not gonna speculate about that.
Okay —
Q: Hey, (inaudible), can I attempt to get a query in there?
(CROSSTALK)
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Hey, hey, hey. Dangle on. Dangle on. Dangle on. We have folks stepping on one another.
Paul, go forward.
Q: Okay, I am sorry about that. I did not get the suitable unmute button.
Look, there’s this — numerous speak about Russians mobilizing extra gear and manpower. Are they transferring folks in for the long-term occupation of the land, the areas that they management?
Are they targeted on — on simply — on simply securing these areas now?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: What we now have seen is that they’re beginning to — they’re persevering with to replenish their troops and transfer recent — recent troops into Ukraine. In truth, we all know that they’ve began to rely now on volunteer contract reservists from — from their nationwide Fight Army Reserve. In order that’s a — a reasonably new growth.
And I feel you noticed — you will have seen within the press that they’ve now elevated the age of enlistment to 50. It was once you could not be any older than 40 to affix the Russian Army, now you could be 50 years previous. They usually’ve — they have been public about that even. So we proceed to see them attempt to discover methods to replenish and useful resource themselves from a manpower perspective.
And all I can inform you about the place — the place they’re placing their troops — and — and we have talked about this earlier than — they’re placing their troops within the east, within the Donbas area, and within the south. That — that’s the place — that’s the place these 110 operational BTGs are working.
And it is kind of in an arc, all the way in which from — from Kharkiv, in case you sweep down, kind of going clockwise, down by way of the Donbas, after which circling again by way of Mariupol, Melitopol, and all the way in which out to Kherson. That arc is the place they’re placing these troops, 110 of them. The vast majority of — nearly all of them are, once more, within the south and within the — and within the east itself of the Donbas.
However —
Q: However do you perceive these — these for use for front-line preventing or are — do you assume they’re coming into truly settle in and handle the areas that they management?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: They — they’re — they’re — many of the troops they’re placing in, they’re placing proper into the combat, as a result of that is an lively space of preventing. However they’re additionally — are introducing troops that — what we might name enablers, proper? Guys that assist them with logistics and sustainment and that sort of factor, command and management. However — however many of the troops that they are placing in are fight troops.
Q: Thanks.
Q: Hey, can I — that is Tom Bowman. Can I’ve only a fast one please?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: Go forward, Tom.
Q: You speak about incremental positive factors, you speak about how there’s smaller items going after, you recognize, smaller cities and so forth. Outdoors of a breakthrough by the Russians, which now appears to be unlikely, and it appears to be little headway on the Ukrainian half at this level, are we at a stalemate now or quick approaching a stalemate, as some have argued?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I feel we’re nonetheless — we’re nonetheless not utilizing “stalemate” as a option to characterize this, Tom. I imply, the — the preventing continues on daily basis and — and the Russians are making incremental progress, however the Ukrainians are additionally offering not solely a stiff resistance in some locations however they’re pushing again, they are going on counter-offensives, and Kharkiv is a — nonetheless a — an lively instance of that.
So —
Q: However are the Ukrainians making incremental progress by way of?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: They’re making incremental progress up round Kharkiv, for positive —
Q: That is the one space, although, proper?
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: I — you — look, I — I am not — I am not on the bottom, Tom, so, like, I am unable to inform you what each intersection and — and village appears like, however we all know they’re pushing again round Kharkiv. And as — I am — once more, I am simply making an attempt to inform you what we’re seeing on daily basis, and what we’re seeing on daily basis is incremental positive factors within the jap a part of the Donbas.
We’re not ready to label this as a stalemate —
Q: Received it.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: — and I assume it depends upon who desires to name it that and what definition they’re utilizing — it. We’re describing this as a really lively, kinetic combat on daily basis, and once more, there’s — there’s give and tackle — on any given day. And, you recognize, if we do a backgrounder tomorrow, you recognize, the — the readout may very well be totally different over the following 24 hours. In order that’s the perfect I can do.
Q: Okay, obtained it. Thanks.
SENIOR DEFENSE OFFICIAL: All proper. Okay, thanks, all people. Respect it. We’ll see you guys later.
