What is going to Putin do then? There’s a widespread concern that he can’t afford to lose and due to this fact will double down. He may escalate both with extra standard navy energy or with chemical or nuclear weapons. Some nonetheless anticipate that, a technique or one other, Russia will win. “If western leaders assume that their arms-length encouragement of Ukraine will deliver a couple of Ukrainian navy victory, then they’re fatally misreading Putin’s intentions and resolve,” writes a British journalist and former “marketing consultant to the Kremlin.” That article sounds as if it’s from February, but it surely really ran within the Guardian final week.
One situation mooted by analysts is that Putin will use the Could 9 Victory Day celebrations in Pink Sq., commemorating the tip of World Warfare II, to announce an expanded conflict effort in Ukraine. Having beforehand tried to cross off the invasion as a “particular navy operation,” he may now declare conflict and announce a complete, World Warfare II-style mobilization. He may think that he may crush Ukraine with vastly extra tanks and troops. However that can threat social unrest and nonetheless most likely received’t ship victory.
Russia is an enormous nation (inhabitants 144 million), however Putin doesn’t have an enormous pool of skilled navy manpower on name. Russia conscripts roughly 260,000 males a 12 months in two drafts, within the spring and fall, for a one-year interval. However even when Putin had been to ship conscripts into Ukraine (which he vows he received’t do), they might nonetheless require no less than 4 months of coaching — and even that will produce low-quality, unmotivated troops. Russia’s greatest items, made up of contract troopers, have carried out abysmally. Conscript-heavy forces would do even worse.
On paper, Russia has greater than 2 million former servicemen in reserve, however, in line with the Institute for the Examine of Warfare, few of them obtain any refresher coaching. A 2019 Rand report discovered that solely 4,000 to five,000 reservists could be thought-about akin to U.S. Nationwide Guard or reserve members. The protection ministry launched an initiative in 2021 to increase the reserves to 80,000 to 100,000 troops, however there isn’t a indication that this formidable goal is being achieved.
Even when Russia had been to throw huge numbers of ill-trained conscripts into battle, it might have issue equipping them. The Russians declare to have greater than 10,000 tanks and 36,000 different armored automobiles in storage, however most are seemingly antiquated and dilapidated. Russia is shedding its greatest navy gear in Ukraine and can discover it exhausting to subject replacements. Western sanctions are strangling Russian navy manufacturing strains by stopping the circulate of microchips. The Russian navy, for instance, is operating brief on precision-guided munitions.
And even when Russia may subject much more low-quality troops outfitted with out-of-date gear, it might have issue supplying them. Russian logistics haven’t been capable of sustain with an invasion military that originally numbered about 150,000 males. How would they provide a bigger drive? Extra Russian troops would simply create extra targets for all of Ukraine’s fashionable weapons.
A scarier situation could be if Putin had been to make use of chemical or, particularly, nuclear weapons. Russian propagandists repeatedly threaten to wage nuclear conflict if their forces lose in Ukraine, and Putin himself engages in nuclear saber-rattling to intimidate the West.
The least seemingly situation is essentially the most apocalyptic one: Russia attacking NATO international locations with standard or nuclear weapons. Putin isn’t suicidal, and he is aware of that the U.S. response could be devastating. A extra restricted use of nuclear weapons towards Ukrainian bases or inhabitants facilities is barely extra believable. Putin would possibly begin with an indication strike to terrorize Kyiv into give up. (Chemical weapons use is extra seemingly nonetheless, but it surely wouldn’t be a recreation changer.)
President Biden wants to stop that from occurring by emphasizing that, whereas below present circumstances the USA won’t combat Russia instantly, all bets are off if Putin goes nuclear. Even with out resorting to nuclear weapons of their very own, NATO may launch airstrikes that will quickly sink the whole Russian Black Sea fleet and destroy a lot of the Russian military in and round Ukraine. That will shake Putin’s legal regime to its foundations.
We can not cease Putin from a reckless escalation, however we have to persuade him that the value could be too excessive to pay. We actually shouldn’t enable his threats to discourage us from offering Ukraine with each weapon it must win. If Putin had been to prevail, he could be emboldened to additional aggression — and so would different rogue states comparable to China. We’ve to clarify that, as President George H.W. Bush mentioned after the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, “This aggression … won’t stand.”
