Eco-activists and representatives of NGOs are protesting towards the unlawful exploitation of mineral deposits, particularly the Gizilbulag gold and Demirli copper-molybdenum deposits within the areas below the non permanent management of Russian peacekeepers, on the Shusha-Khankandi street. The Armenian facet has a number of arguments relating to this rally. They declare that the individuals within the protest motion will not be NGO representatives, and that 120,000 individuals stay within the blockade in Karabakh, medical provides, meals and gasoline have run out, and {that a} humanitarian catastrophe and even genocide has been dedicated.
Amongst these claims, the argument that “individuals will not be representatives of NGOs” just isn’t related to the subject. It doesn’t appear logical to disregard the calls for of the individuals of the motion primarily based on this. The phrases “humanitarian catastrophe” and “genocide” have already been uttered by the opposite facet so inappropriately and senselessly that it arouses a sense of disgust. Nevertheless, the individuals of the rally opened the hall a number of instances within the final two days and created circumstances for the transportation of emergency medical autos, sufferers and day by day requirements.
In current days, we have now witnessed that each Armenian officers and foreigners below the affect of the Armenian foyer use the phrase “120,000 residents are below blockade” extra usually. Let’s take just a few examples:
“120,000 individuals are within the blockade, in precise hostage circumstances,” writes Armenia Right this moment, referring to Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan. Chairman of the Nationwide Meeting (Parliament) of Armenia Alen Simonyan tweeted twice on this subject. On December 13, Simonyan wrote that “So-called Azerbaijani “environmentalists” in civilian outfit and with officer ranks blocked solely route connecting NK with Armenia, actually taking hostages 120,000 Armenians“, and on December 14, “Baku took 120,000 individuals hostage, blocking free motion, and making a humanitarian catastrophe by slicing off pure fuel provides within the winter season highlights the necessity for better worldwide monitoring in Nagorno-Karabakh.”
Aside from these, Jean-Christophe Buisson, deputy editor-in-chief of Le Figaro, one of many main French newspapers (the lives of 120,000 Armenians of Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh are in peril), Member of the European Parliament François-Xavier Bellamy (even tonight, Azerbaijan retains 120,000 civilians from Nagorno-Karabakh in a humanitarian disaster), US Congresswoman Katie Porter (Azerbaijan’s reported blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh threatens to chop off fuel to 120,000 Armenians as winter begins), Isabelle Santiago, member of the French Nationwide Meeting (We should act now to avoid wasting the 120,000 inhabitants of Artsakh!) Eric Ciotti, member of the French Nationwide Meeting (120,000 Armenians have been lower off from all contact with the world), German blogger Sascha Duerkop (Presently, Azerbaijan has lower off the one street to Nagorno-Karabakh and the power provide, holding about 120,000 civilians hostage), Armenian-born deputy mayor of Paris Anouch Toranian (For 120,000 Armenians severely there’s a humanitarian disaster, fuel transportation is lower off in the midst of winter and sufferers are ready to be relocated) – voiced their opinion about “120,000” Armenians. All these are solely tweets and statements made on December 13-14.
Faktyoxla Lab. has investigated whether or not 120,000 individuals reside within the areas below the non permanent management of Russian peacekeepers.
Analysis methodology 1.
To make clear this truth, it’s essential to first take a look at the web page of the “election fee” of the so-called regime.
The textual content offers info on the variety of voters of the so-called establishment as of 23.01.2020. It was famous that the whole variety of voters is 103,506.
Khankandi: 39,218
Askaran district: 11,832
Hadrut district: 8,617
Aghdara district: 13,092
Khojavand district: 17,398
Shaumyan district: 2,136
Shusha metropolis: 3,930
Lachin district: 7,283
After the 44-day warfare, Azerbaijan absolutely returned Hadrut district, Shusha metropolis and surrounding villages, Lachin district. Within the first days of the warfare, the villages of Sugovushan and Talish of Aghdara district, which they referred to as Martakert, Farrukh and Pirlar villages of Askaran district, Taglar, Chaylaggala, Ashagi Taglar villages of Khojavand district have been cleared of unlawful army items hidden within the space. In accordance with the November 10 settlement, Aghdam district was fully returned. Throughout the occupation, a number of villages of Aghdam district (Shelli, Gasimli, and so on.) have been included in Askaran district by Armenians. Thus, if we subtract some indicators of Shusha, Lachin, Hadrut, Askaran (some villages), Aghdara (Sugovushan, Talish) and Khojavand from the statistics of Armenians on 23.01.2020 (that’s, the inhabitants who moved there after the occupation moved to different districts), we get that there are about 70,000 individuals left. Because the Armenians declare, if we add 40% youngsters, it makes 102,000 individuals. These are the claims of Armenians. However what’s the actual state of affairs?
In current instances, the so-called regime has held unlawful elections to native self-governing our bodies 4 instances. Let’s look at the paperwork and different supplies in open sources associated to the voters collaborating in that “election” recreation.
Reality 1. The outcomes of the “election” held on October 10, 2021 within the communities of Tsakashat and Khachmach of Askaran district, Yeni Gazanchi (Nor ganzi) of Aghdara district, and Gargar of Khojavand district have been introduced on October 12, 2021. Let’s depart apart who was elected the place and what number of votes she or he obtained, and deal with the primary incontrovertible fact that we’d like. The announcement states that 440 individuals participated within the “elections” to native self-governing our bodies (communities). This implies 59.2% of the whole variety of voters. Thus, it’s clear {that a} complete of 700 voters (440×59.2:100+440) reside within the talked about communities. If we add 40% of youngsters and youngsters claimed by the Armenians to this indicator, we get 980.
Reality 2. The outcomes of the election to native self-government our bodies (communities) held on December 10, 2021 have been introduced on December 13, 2021. In accordance with the assertion given to the media, the elections have been held in Khojavand metropolis and Gishi group of Khojavand district. The assertion famous that 1,859 voters participated in these “elections” and this determine is 37.05% of the whole variety of voters. Thus, it’s clear that there are 6,876 voters in these communities. We get 11,460 individuals on prime of this indicator, 40% of youngsters and adolescents claimed by the Armenians.
Reality 3. The outcomes of the native self-government elections held on April 10, 2022 have been introduced to the general public on April 13, 2022. The revealed info states that the elections are thought of to have taken place in Berdashen, Norshen, Tsovatex, Sos, Varanda and Aknaberd communities of Khojavand area. It was famous that 1,258 voters took half in these elections, which suggests 49.35% of the whole voters. Thus, it’s clear that the whole variety of voters in these communities is 2,549 individuals. On prime of this indicator, 40% claimed by Armenians makes the variety of youngsters and adolescents 4,248.
Thus, including the talked about numbers offers 18,496. Because the outcomes of the “elections” held within the cities of Khankandi and Aghdara to native self-government our bodies haven’t been introduced, we can’t give the ultimate consequence.
Analysis methodology 2. One other supply we researched was the statistics of the return of Armenians who fled their locations of residence throughout the warfare accompanied by peacekeepers. On this desk, which we have now ready on the subject of the Russian Ministry of Protection and different Russian-language, in addition to Armenian web sites, we have now indicated the date of the month, the variety of returned Armenians, the cited supply and the whole variety of returnees.
As we all know, the return of Armenians who fled from Karabakh began on November 14, 2020. The figures introduced for the primary six days on November 14-19 have been taken from the official web site of the Ministry of Protection of Russia. The knowledge launched on these days indicated how many individuals arrived and what number of buses have been used for this goal. For some motive, this info was not offered within the following days.
| November 14 2020 | 9 buses (250 individuals) | round 27 passengers |
| November 15 | 19 buses (475 individuals) | 25 passengers |
| November 16 | 19 buses (482 individuals) | 25 passengers |
| November 17 | 24 buses (502 individuals) | 20 passengers |
| November 18 | 23 buses (936 individuals) | 40 passengers |
| November 19 | 27 buses (1235 individuals) | 45 passengers |
Evidently they thought that with such disclosure of knowledge (variety of buses and passengers) the numbers wouldn’t match, in order that they modified the type of info dissemination.
Now let’s deal with the numbers.
When the whole variety of returnees was first introduced, that’s, on November 21, 2020, 7,000 individuals have been listed, including up the figures they submitted, and 6,880 are obtained. However when the second complete quantity was introduced on November 28, a critical distinction was seen. So, 21,083 have been written within the press launch, however 14,841 are obtained by calculations. What steps did the Armenian facet take to get out of this case? Jirayr Mirzoyan, the Minister of Territorial Administration and Growth of the so-called establishment, discovered a manner out of the inconsistency of the data. He mentioned in his assertion on November 30 that the Ministry of Protection of Russia doesn’t specify the precise quantity. They didn’t point out the Armenians who didn’t come accompanied by peacekeepers. In that case, 30,000 extra ought to have been added to that quantity. reference
Again to the desk. Allow us to state prematurely that the variety of Armenians returning to the territories below the non permanent management of Russian peacekeepers is inconsistency, pretend numbers, exaggerated indicators appeal to consideration.
For instance, in line with Russian media on November 28, 2,431 individuals have been returned, whereas Armenian sources point out 2,115 individuals. Right here we witness that the Russians are extra zealous in displaying the quantity already. Or, let’s take note of the data launched on November 29. The variety of passengers is identical in each sources. But when the Armenian supply claims that 23,500 individuals returned from November 14 to November 29, the Russian supply exhibits this quantity at 25,000.
An identical state of affairs occurred on December 6. The Russian publication “Argumenti i fakti” in comparison with figures given by “Sputnik Armenia”: 1,244 and 859.
One other truth: within the info launched on November 30, there’s a vital distinction between the numbers. It’s fascinating that the supply, which exhibits a small quantity, exhibits the whole quantity by 1,000 individuals greater than the indication of “Rossiyskaya Gazeta”.
On December 1-3, we come throughout an instance of full fraud. Let’s notice: on December 1, the whole quantity was 27,000, however on December 2, regardless of the addition of 1,200 individuals, they stored the whole quantity unchanged. On December 2, two sources offered completely different figures. The identical applies to December 2 and three. The quantity varies, it doesn’t have an effect on the whole consequence.
Briefly, after a protracted and intense exercise, they lastly managed to point out that “52,000” individuals “returned” to Karabakh. In accordance with our calculations, this quantity just isn’t greater than 21,000-22,000. That is near our calculated quantity (18,496).
Analysis methodology 3. As we all know, on October 30, a separatist, Russian billionaire Ruben Vardanyan organized a rally in Khankandi. In accordance with the Armenian media, 40,000 Armenians participated within the motion. Let’s put apart the political message and timing of this motion and look at the information.
On this rally held on the “Revival” sq. in Khankandi, filming was completed from a number of angles, so it’s potential to disclose the information we’d like by way of these pictures. Amongst them, the buses ordered to convey the individuals to the rally appeared within the sq., the realm occupied by the 70-meter flag and the mass of army personnel uncovered to the cameras, and so on. might be famous.
However we’ll nonetheless examine primarily based on the information offered by the Armenians.
There’s a “mapchecking” software that counts the variety of individuals holding a rally in an open space. With the assistance of that addition, we are able to calculate the variety of individuals within the occasion.
Considering all these indicators, we draw the approximate space within the appendix we talked about.
After that, when placing the indications in place, this system itself exhibits the variety of individuals:
That’s, a complete of 21,485 individuals participated. We’ve got not but taken into consideration the 70-meter flag, the buses, the retail posture of individuals. We proved that 21,000 individuals really participated within the 40,000-strong rally that Armenians proudly spoke about. Regardless of that billionaire Vardanyan spent a big amount of cash, transported passengers from Armenia for days, mobilized all forces, and introduced fighters of unlawful army items, they gathered solely 21,000 individuals.
What will we conclude? 120,000 individuals don’t reside in Karabakh, because the Armenians declare. The variety of Armenians dwelling in Khankandi just isn’t greater than 11,000-12,000. If we evaluate our calculations primarily based on voter lists and the variety of Armenians who returned after the warfare, we are able to declare that the variety of Armenians dwelling in Karabakh is round 24,000-26,000.
We repeat as soon as once more that even when not 120,000 individuals, as claimed by the Armenians, however one million individuals lived in Karabakh, the calls for of Azerbaijani eco-activists, NGOs and media representatives don’t have anything to do with this quantity. This research was performed solely and solely to reveal this false argument of the Armenians.
